13:45 at Huntingdon

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The 13:45 at Huntingdon sees a fascinating renewal of the Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle, with a small but select field of six declared runners. The market has honed in on Jax Junior as the likely winner, but let’s dig deeper to see if there’s an edge the market might be missing.


The Strongest Contender: JAX JUNIOR (11/8)
There’s little doubt that Jax Junior comes into this as the standout contender. A Timeform rating of 146p adjusted to 151 puts him firmly at the top of the ratings. The “p” symbol indicates he’s open to further improvement, and the manner of his recent wins suggests there’s plenty more in the tank.

His 17-length demolition job at Ascot last time out was particularly eye-catching, where he made all the running and jumped fluently throughout. With the pace forecast weak for this race, Jax Junior is perfectly positioned to dominate from the front again. This race setup plays right into his strengths as a front-runner who can dictate terms.

However, the market is already alive to his potential, pricing him at 11/8, which feels about right. There’s value in his price if you believe he can replicate or even improve on his last two performances, which seems likely given the race dynamics.


What the Market May Have Missed: JUNKER D’ALLIER (17/2)
While the top two in the market, Jax Junior and Califet En Vol, have attracted plenty of attention, Junker D’Allier is quietly lurking as a potential value each-way play at 17/2.

On adjusted Timeform ratings, Junker D’Allier sits joint-second with Califet En Vol at 145, yet he’s more than double the price. His last outing, where he pulled up at Aintree, might be putting punters off, but that was in a Grade 1 on soft ground, and he may have simply not handled the conditions or the class hike.

Prior to that, he won impressively at Bangor and Carlisle, showing he can stay and handle a softer pace if needed. If he returns to form, he could pose a threat, especially if Jax Junior faces any pressure up front or doesn’t get things all his own way.


Verdict
While Jax Junior looks the likely winner and is hard to oppose, Junker D’Allier offers sneaky each-way value at 17/2, especially given his adjusted rating parity with Califet En Vol. With the right trip and a return to form, he could surprise the market.

Recommended Bets:

  • Jax Junior – Win (11/8)
  • Junker D’Allier – Each-Way (17/2 a quarter the odds 2 places) W/O Jax Junior (7/2)

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