2:12 Bangor – Corbett Sports North Wales National Handicap Chase (3m5½f, Soft)
The Corbett Sports North Wales National Handicap Chase is a gruelling test of stamina and jumping ability, with soft ground set to make this an even greater challenge. Horses proven over marathon trips and who can sustain a gallop in testing conditions are key. While the market has focused on some progressive sorts, there may be a bit of value in a couple of overlooked contenders.
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Strongest Contender – Rockinastorm (11/2)
There’s plenty to like about Rockinastorm, who has been in outstanding form this season, winning two of his last four and finishing second in the other two. Crucially, he travels strongly through his races, which will be important in a contest where many will struggle to keep up in the closing stages.
Proven form in the mud – won on heavy at Wetherby.
Consistent in staying chases – 6 wins from 20 runs, places in 12.
Trainer Henry Daly has a strong record in marathon chases.
Only slight concern is stamina beyond 3m2f, but his running style suggests he should get it.
He sets the standard in terms of current form and could still be improving, so his price looks fair enough.
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Market Overlooked? Well Dick (17/2) a Feaster or Famine Type
One horse that stands out at a bigger price is Well Dick. His form figures don’t inspire confidence (1PP1PP1), but that unreliable profile may be disguising his actual ability.
When he completes, he often wins impressively, showing he’s got genuine ability at this level.
He bounced back last time with a strong win at Exeter, handling soft ground well and jumping fluently.
Trainer Emma Lavelle is in form, which could be key in getting him to back up that performance.
He’s not one to fully trust, but his strike rate when completing (4 wins from 10 runs) is high, and at 17/2 he could offer some value if in the right mood.
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Potential Market Weakness – Duke Of Deception (17/2)
Duke Of Deception has been well backed, but while he stays well, he’s not particularly well-treated off 119 and has yet to prove he can win beyond 3m2f. His trainer is in form, but the lack of a win over this kind of trip is a concern. He’ll likely be staying on at the end, but whether he has the speed to win in a strongly-run race remains to be seen.
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Final Thoughts
Rockinastorm (11/2) is the most solid contender – fit, in form, and progressive.
Well Dick (17/2) is a wild card, but his strike rate when completing makes him dangerous.
Duke Of Deception (17/2) may be too short in the market considering his lack of a win over this sort of trip.
The main bet is Rockinastorm to win, but Well Dick is too big a price to ignore each-way. If he completes, he has a serious chance of winning.
2:12 Bangor – Corbett Sports North Wales National Handicap Chase (3m5½f, Soft)
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