2:20 Kempton – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 4, 3m½f, Good to Soft)

With just seven runners, this isn’t an appealing each-way betting race, but there’s still an opportunity to find the strongest contender and any market weaknesses.


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Strongest Contender – IDEAL DES BORDES (2/1)

Progressive profile, winning on chase debut at Wincanton (25f, soft).

Trainer/Jockey combo: Henderson’s 22% strike rate at Kempton, Nico de Boinville 23% at the track.

Ground and trip should be ideal, having stayed well over hurdles.

Concerns? Has traded much lower than SP in defeat before, so not unbeatable.


With a slow pace likely, he may not get the strong gallop that would suit best, but he remains the one to beat on raw ability.


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Market Overlooked – SEA INVASION (13/2)

Market move: backed in from 16/1.

Crucially well-placed in a weakly-run race, with Timeform noting he should be better positioned than some closers.

Trainer Anthony Honeyball does well with staying chasers.

Beaten 32 lengths last time, but that was a stronger Newbury race, and previous form stacks up well.


With a slow-run race in mind, if he’s ridden forward, he could get first run on Ideal Des Bordes.


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Final Thoughts

Ideal Des Bordes is clearly the one to beat, but if the pace isn’t strong, he might not have it all his own way.

Sea Invasion is being backed and could capitalise on the pace setup.

Moulins Clermont (9/2) is respected after a much-improved chase run, but he might find himself poorly placed.

Eyed (7/2) has done little wrong, but there’s no obvious value at the price.


🔹 Recommended Bet: Ideal Des Bordes (2/1) – Win
🔹 Potential Market Miss – Sea Invasion (13/2), who may be better placed than some expect.