2:50 Kempton – Star Of Affinity Looks The One To Beat, But Market May Be Overlooking The Long Point

The 2:50 Kempton – TrustATrader Handicap Hurdle (Class 4, 2m5½f, Good to Soft) looks a competitive contest on paper, but Star Of Affinity (7/2) has strong claims and should be difficult to beat. However, the market may have underestimated The Long Point (17/2), who makes his handicap debut and has significant scope for improvement.

Strongest Contender: Star Of Affinity

Joe Tizzard’s Star Of Affinity is a progressive hurdler who arrives here in fine form, having won well at Taunton last time over 2m3f. That performance suggested he would have no trouble with today’s extra distance, particularly given how strongly he stayed on. His HRB rating of 288 is the highest in the field, and the way he travelled and quickened at Taunton suggests he’s still ahead of his mark.

The likely strong pace in this race should suit him well. He’s adaptable tactically and has been effective on both soft and good-to-soft ground. The 7/2 on offer looks fair given his profile, but he’s not exactly hidden from the market.

Market Missed: The Long Point (17/2)

Where the market may have miscalculated is with The Long Point, who is making his handicap debut for the in-form Emma Lavelle. Harry Cobden is an eyecatching booking, and this lightly-raced 6yo has been shaping as though a step up in trip would suit.

His fourth-place finish in a novice at Hereford last time doesn’t immediately stand out, but he wasn’t knocked about and shaped as if he would benefit from a stronger test. This is his first run in a handicap, and a mark of 107 could be lenient given his potential for further progress.

Kempton isn’t the easiest track for hold-up horses, but given the pace forecast is extreme, there’s a real chance that the front-runners will set things up for a closer. The Long Point fits that bill and, at 17/2, he looks a value alternative to the favourite.

Conclusion

Star Of Affinity (7/2) – Most solid contender, should go close.

The Long Point (17/2) – Market potentially overlooking his scope for improvement.

Bredon Hill (6/1) – Progressive and unexposed at the trip, another to consider.

Sun Joy (10/1, E/W) – Could be a lively each-way player back over hurdles.


If the strong pace materialises, The Long Point could be the one to benefit. At 17/2, he represents a bit of value in a race where Star Of Affinity is likely to be well found in the market.