The 1m Handicap at Southwell (4:10) doesn’t look the strongest of Class 3 races, with a weak pace forecast suggesting it could suit those who can travel smoothly and quicken late. Cracking Gold (3/1) heads the market, but there are reasons to think there’s better value elsewhere.

One runner that may have been overlooked by the market is Eligible (14/1). He has two wins at Southwell, and his latest run—when fourth over 7f here—was better than the result suggests. That race was run at a stronger pace, and he found himself positioned further back than ideal. With today’s slower expected tempo, he could sit closer and have every chance of adding another Southwell win to his record.

Another runner worth consideration is Empirestateofmind (11/1). He regularly trades much shorter in-running before getting beaten, which makes him a frustrating proposition for win purposes, but he hits the frame often and has run well in stronger races than this. Given the lack of early pace, he might be able to control the race more than usual, which could make him a bigger threat to the favourite than his odds suggest.

As for Cracking Gold (3/1), the ability is there, but he’s been off the track for 188 days, and while his early-season form last year was solid, he’s being priced as if he’s guaranteed to return at the same level. That’s far from certain in a race like this, where race fitness and tactical positioning could play a major role.

At the prices, Eligible (14/1) looks a strong each-way bet, while Empirestateofmind (11/1) should go well if allowed to dictate. Cracking Gold is a risky favourite at the current odds given the potential race shape and layoff.

Best Bet: Eligible EW (14/1)

Alternative EW Play: Empirestateofmind (11/1)

The market seems to have overlooked Eligible’s strong track record, and he could be the one to capitalise in this race.