With soft ground and an extended trip, this contest should suit those with a blend of stamina and tactical speed. Given the relatively untested profiles of several runners, market confidence is likely to centre around the more exposed form lines—but that may not be the full story.

Strongest Contender: CORAL RIVER (10/3)

There’s a lot to like about Coral River’s profile, and while he’s not the market leader, he arguably should be. His recent victory at Limerick was a notable step forward, and crucially, he finished that race with a strong closing effort—exactly the kind of performance that often goes underappreciated in novice hurdles.

• His winning time was solid for the grade, especially given the testing conditions.
• Sectionals suggest he found extra late on, an indication that he has more to offer.
• Trainer Thomas Mullins is hitting form, and Keith Donoghue is an underrated booking in these types of races.

With that Limerick race working out well—the runner-up had previously chased home a 132-rated horse—there’s a good chance his true ability is ahead of his official rating.

Despite facing opposition from high-profile stables, Coral River has an ideal mix of experience, improving form, and a race style that should suit the conditions. His odds of 10/3 underestimate his chance compared to Koori Star.

Potential Market Miss: SCALPNAGOON (4/1)

There’s a real chance the market is underestimating Scalpnagoon, who looks unexposed and tactically advantaged.

• He made all last time out, and with no obvious front-runner here, he could get an uncontested lead.
• That victory came at Punchestown in a maiden hurdle, where he galloped on strongly despite looking raw.
• Gordon Elliott’s runners tend to improve significantly after their first win, and with D.J. Gilligan claiming 5lb, he’s effectively running off a lower mark than the market implies.

The concern is that he might not be able to sustain the gallop if this turns into a proper test, but if he dictates the pace, he could prove very hard to pass—a scenario that isn’t fully factored into his current price.

Market Leaders and Their Flaws

• Koori Star (15/8) has a solid profile but doesn’t offer much value at current odds.
• His form isn’t far ahead of Coral River on the clock, and at almost half the price, the value is questionable.
• A Tipp For Gold (7/2) had an off-day when pulled up last time, and while he has winning form, that poor effort raises concerns about consistency.

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Verdict & Betting Angles

🏆 Best Bet – CORAL RIVER (10/3) (Strong contender, improving form, well suited to conditions)
🎯 Value Play – SCALPNAGOON (4/1) (Possible easy lead, scope to improve)
❌ Avoid at the price – KOORI STAR (15/8) (Solid but too short in the market)

A fair price for Coral River is closer to 9/4, while Scalpnagoon should be more like 3/1 if allowed a soft lead.

If the market continues to focus on Koori Star, there’s strong value in opposing him with two improving horses at fairer odds.