The market has Gala Marceau as the standout favourite, and on ratings, she is clearly the best horse in the race. Her second to Lossiemouth in the Grade 1 Mares’ Champion Hurdle at Punchestown is a level of form none of her rivals can match. However, at odds-on, there are enough doubts to suggest she might be worth opposing at the prices.

She is making her first start of the season after 280 days off, stepping up in trip in a race where the pace is forecast to be slow. With a likely tactical affair, she may find herself needing to make up ground late, and that could leave her vulnerable to fitter rivals who race more prominently.

West Balboa (5/2) looks like the main danger, and she rates a more appealing bet at the prices. Dan Skelton has a strong record at Warwick (21%), and this mare has proven stamina, which could be crucial if the race turns into a test of staying power. She shaped well when fourth at Kempton last time, travelling well through the race, and first-time cheekpieces could sharpen her up further.

The market may be underestimating You Wear It Well (11/2), who could be well suited by how this race is run. She races prominently, and with no obvious front-runner in the field, she could get an easy time of it up front. She was second in a Listed chase at Bangor and has respectable hurdles form at this level. If she controls the pace, she could be hard to peg back and looks a decent each-way play given she’s trading at 11/2 with a quarter the odds for two places.

Verdict

• West Balboa (5/2, win) – Race-fit, strong stayer, and cheekpieces could bring improvement.
• You Wear It Well (11/2, each-way) – Could dictate the race and is overpriced given the place terms.
• Gala Marceau (10/11, too short to back) – The best horse in the race, but returning from a long layoff in a tactical contest makes her opposable at the price.

With a slow pace likely, backing West Balboa to win and You Wear It Well each-way could be the most sensible approach.