This looks a competitive handicap with a few lightly-raced improvers and some exposed runners likely to struggle under their marks. The pace forecast suggests an even gallop, which should give those positioned prominently or tracking the leaders a slight edge.
Strongest Contender: Doctor Churchill (8/1) A lightly-raced 7-year-old, Doctor Churchill made an immediate impact for new connections when winning a competitive 17-runner event at Naas last month. He travelled well through that race and quickened clear, leaving the impression that a 6lb rise may not be enough to stop him. The form is working out well, with several behind him that day running solid races since. He remains relatively unexposed over hurdles and, given the way he travelled and found for pressure, a drop in trip here is unlikely to be a concern. He should be ideally positioned just off the pace and looks a strong contender at the prices.
Potentially Overlooked Value: Duke of Leggagh (8/1) While he finished a distant third behind Well Dressed at Fairyhouse last time, that effort needs upgrading as he was caught further back than ideal in a steadily-run contest. The winner dictated and had plenty in reserve, whereas Duke of Leggagh was asked to do a lot of running late. He is a lightly-raced hurdler with scope to improve and has shown enough ability to suggest he can be competitive off this mark. If the race develops into more of a stamina test in the soft ground, he could find himself in a better position late on.
Market Favourite – Vulnerable or Justified? Well Dressed (7/4) is a worthy favourite after a visually impressive win last time, but she now carries a 12lb higher mark in a deeper race. While she travelled strongly and put her race to bed in good style, that was a race in which she was able to dominate on soft ground at Fairyhouse. The concern here is that she may not get an easy time of things up front, and in a more competitive heat, she looks short enough at the current price.
Conclusion: Doctor Churchill (8/1) represents solid value given his profile and the way he won last time. While the favourite Well Dressed is respected, she faces a much stiffer test here. Duke of Leggagh (8/1) is the one at a bigger price who could be overlooked by the market but has strong claims with a better tactical setup. Both are worth serious consideration, with Doctor Churchill the main play at the current odds.
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