15:55 Newcastle – A Case for Plage de Havre, but Knockbrex the Value Play

A seven-runner handicap over 1m4f99y on Newcastle’s Tapeta, with a very weak pace forecast, meaning those racing handily could have a decisive advantage. Given that hold-up runners generally perform well over this trip at Newcastle, the lack of pace may neutralise that bias today, bringing tactical positioning into play.

At the head of the market, PLAGE DE HAVRE (11/8) has been progressing nicely and was first past the post at Southwell last time before being demoted. He’s unexposed, handles Tapeta well, and is tactically versatile—crucial in a race where the early gallop is likely to be modest. With Andrew Balding’s 23% strike rate at Newcastle since 2021 and Jason Watson in the saddle, he’s an obvious and worthy favourite. However, while he should go very close, his tendency to trade short in running before being caught (as has happened before) means his price is just on the tight side.

That brings us to a potentially overlooked alternative in KNOCKBREX (8/1). He bolted up at Lingfield in January over this trip but had genuine excuses when beaten into third just six days later. On that occasion, he raced alone on the inside rail at Lingfield, an area that has been notably unfavourable in recent weeks. A return to this longer trip will suit, and with a more prominent ride, he could be the one to take advantage if Plage de Havre is vulnerable late on. Charlie Johnston’s horses have been running well, and Jack Mitchell, who rides Newcastle exceptionally well, retains the partnership.

Elsewhere, GAASSEE (3/1) has the ability to win this, but the race setup is against him. He was an unlucky second at Kempton last time, but he’s a hold-up performer who needs a strong pace, and that just isn’t on the cards today. If the race is run as expected, he may need to pass every rival late on—a difficult task on this track under these conditions.

Verdict:

Plage de Havre has the strongest overall credentials but offers little value at the current price.

Knockbrex (8/1) is the value play (Some bookies paying 3 places)—capable of bouncing back over this longer trip and could be underestimated by the market.

Gaassee may be left with too much to do if the race pans out as expected.


At the prices, Knockbrex each-way appeals most, with Plage de Havre likely to be the toughest opponent in the finish.