The 2m7f86y novices’ handicap chase at Newbury presents an intriguing puzzle, with several progressive chasers in the mix. While Herakles Westwood (7/4) is rightly popular after two decisive victories, the market may have overreacted to his recent win at Windsor, where the form isn’t necessarily as strong as it first appears. His jumping remains a slight concern, and in a contest that could become tactical, I’m inclined to look elsewhere for value.

The pace setup here is weak, which could prove crucial. Pic Roc (4/1) is one of the few in this field who naturally races prominently, and if allowed a soft lead, he could be dangerous. While some might question his finishing effort after trading short in-play and getting beaten, he was only narrowly denied at Exeter in soft conditions, and his jumping has generally looked assured. Given the expected race shape, he has every chance of dictating the fractions.

Lord of Thunder (10/3) also rates a strong contender. His second to Handstands at Ffos Las is an underrated piece of form, with the winner franking it by landing a Grade 1 since. He made a significant early error that day but still finished well, suggesting he has more to offer over this trip. Joe Tizzard’s yard is in good form, and any further rain would play to his strengths.

From a value perspective, Toss Of A Coin (10/1) looks the most overlooked. Paul Nicholls has a strong record in this race, and although his runner pulled up last time, that effort may have come too soon after a tough run at Uttoxeter. If back to his best, he has the stamina and scope to get involved, and with Harry Cobden booked, he’s a lively outsider.

Verdict:

• Best Bet: Pic Roc (4/1) – Could get a tactical edge in a slowly run race.
• Main Danger: Lord of Thunder (10/3) – Form looks strong, and Ffos Las effort suggests more to come.
• Market Overlooked: Toss Of A Coin (10/1) – Nicholls has a solid record in this race, and his price is too big.

With Pic Roc likely to get the run of the race, and Lord of Thunder boasting strong form credentials, it’s worth siding with the former at 4/1 in the hope he can control the pace and prove difficult to peg back.