AGATHA CHRISTIE MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE – 14:00 EXETER

2m 1f 109y | Listed | Good to Soft (Soft in places) | 5 Runners

A small but intriguing field lines up for this Listed mares’ novice chase, with two exciting prospects at the head of the market in Fun Fun Fun and Only By Night. The betting suggests a match race, but the way this race is likely to be run could have a significant impact on the outcome, and there might just be a case for an overlooked contender at bigger odds.


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Race Shape & Tactical Angle

The pace setup is key here. The Timeform pace map suggests a very weak pace, with only Fun Fun Fun likely to go forward. That immediately gives her an edge, as she has dictated races before and won unchallenged on her chase debut. Only By Night races prominently but doesn’t force the issue, meaning she could end up chasing a steady pace in a sprint finish—which is far from ideal.


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Leading Contenders

Fun Fun Fun (11/10) – Best Tactical Setup

The Willie Mullins-trained mare won impressively on her chase debut at Naas (20.1f, heavy), never coming off the bridle. The step back in trip could be a concern, but a slow-run race would mitigate that, especially as she is the only confirmed front-runner. The key factor is whether J.J. Slevin can get her into an uncontested lead, as she’s previously been vulnerable when taken on late in steadily-run races.

Only By Night (10/11) – Strongest Form

On pure form, Only By Night is the one to beat. She won a Grade 2 at Cork, comfortably dispatching Nara (OR 136), and had Kilbarry Saint (4th) well beaten. That’s stronger form than Fun Fun Fun, but the tactical setup is a concern. She might have to come from further back than ideal, and although she’s shown a sharp turn of foot, she’s unproven beyond 2m1f—suggesting her stamina may not be as strong as her main rival’s.


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Market Overlooked Contender – Kilbarry Saint (28/1)

The outsiders look outclassed on paper, but Kilbarry Saint might be worth a small bet at inflated odds. She was beaten 12 lengths behind Only By Night in a Grade 2 at Cork, which on the surface looks poor, but the way that race developed didn’t suit—she was ridden conservatively and found herself too far back to make an impact.

Significantly, she was only 4½ lengths behind Ile Atlantique (OR 145) at Naas last time—a stronger performance than it looks on paper. If this race turns tactical and gets messy, she’s the one who could sneak into the frame at a big price.


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Betting Angle & Conclusion

Strongest Contender: Fun Fun Fun (11/10) – Tactical advantage
Biggest Market Oversight: Kilbarry Saint (28/1) – Could run better than odds suggest

Small Win Bet – Fun Fun Fun (11/10 or bigger) – The race shape should play to her strengths, and she has more tactical control.

Small Place Bet – Kilbarry Saint (28/1) – If the front two falter tactically, she’s the most likely to pick up the pieces.


While Only By Night is the classiest in the field, the likely race setup makes Fun Fun Fun the most solid betting proposition, with Kilbarry Saint a potential value play in the place market.