This looks a winnable novice handicap chase, and given the very weak pace forecast, positioning will be key. John W Creasy (5/1) looks the most solid contender at the prices, while Ede’Iffs Rock (7/1) is one that could be underestimated by the market.

Strongest Contender – John W Creasy (5/1)

A gradual improver over fences, John W Creasy shaped well when finishing 2nd to a much-improved rival at Warwick (31 Dec) over 2m4f on soft ground. The winner had taken a significant step forward, so a 9½-length defeat in that context is far from discouraging. Prior to that, he recorded a comfortable win at Lingfield, jumping with fluency and putting the race to bed in good style.

The weak early pace here plays right into his hands, as he’s one of the few in this race who can race prominently. He was ridden too patiently at Warwick but should be much better positioned here given the race setup. Off a mark of 88, he remains well-treated, and the market may still be undervaluing his improvement.

He’s been priced up as a mid-range runner, but this could be the perfect setup for him to strike.

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Market Sleeper – Ede’Iffs Rock (7/1)

At first glance, Ede’Iffs Rock’s profile doesn’t immediately scream “back me”, but closer inspection suggests she’s one the market may be overlooking.

She stayed on strongly over 2m7f at Huntingdon last time, finishing a respectable 8-length second despite the step up in trip possibly stretching her stamina. That form now looks stronger than it first appeared, with the winner subsequently running well in a higher-grade race.

The concern is that she’s usually held up, and in a race forecast to be slowly run, that may leave her with too much ground to make up. However, if her jockey makes more positive use of her, she has the ability to run a big race at an appealing price.

She’s likely to be underestimated by the market, and at 7/1 or bigger, she offers each-way value.

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Verdict & Betting Strategy

• Win bet: John W Creasy (5/1) – well-handicapped, pace angle in his favour.
• Each-way value: Ede’Iffs Rock (7/1) – improving, market may have missed her potential.

Both runners should be monitored in the betting. If John W Creasy drifts beyond 5/1, it would be a stronger bet, while Ede’Iffs Rock is worth supporting if holding her price at 7/1 or bigger.