With just six runners and a very weak pace forecast, the dynamics of this contest could be crucial. In such a tactical race, positioning and efficiency will likely determine the outcome rather than outright stamina reserves.

Strongest Contender – DONNACHA (3/1)

Donnacha looks the most solid option in this contest, and I expect him to prove difficult to pass if allowed to dictate at a modest tempo. His latest Exeter win (1st of 5, beating a subsequent winner) was not only well-backed by the form book but also showed an ability to assert when required, a crucial trait given today’s likely race shape.

The 4lb rise is far from harsh, especially when you consider that the third horse in that race has since gone on to win. He remains well-handicapped at 122 and is one of the few in here proven on heavy ground while also possessing tactical speed.

The key concern would be his jumping at pace in a truly run race, but with today’s contest expected to develop into a slowly-run tactical affair, his prominent racing style should allow him to control the race in a way that negates any minor flaws in his technique.

At 3/1, I’d argue there’s still some value here, given his ability to handle conditions and his in-race efficiency over fences so far. Expect him to go shorter in-running.

Market Sleeper – LARGY POET (5/1)

One horse that might be slipping under the radar is Largy Poet, making his chase debut for Paul Nicholls, a trainer with a 24% strike rate with handicap chase debutants.

He may not have set the world alight over hurdles, but his best form came on testing ground over similar trips, and he showed a tendency to race prominently, which is likely to be an advantage here.

His most recent hurdles run saw him beaten 7 lengths at Wincanton off 132, but given his chase pedigree and stable’s strong record at this meeting, there’s every chance he’ll improve for the switch to fences.

Crucially, Largy Poet is the only runner in this field whose true ability over fences is still unknown. If he’s better over the larger obstacles, he could be dangerously well-treated at 132, particularly in a race where a bold-jumping front-runner could take some pegging back. At 5/1, he’s definitely a runner I wouldn’t be keen to take on lightly.

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Summary & Betting Advice

📌 Donnacha (3/1) – Strongest contender. The likeliest winner given his race style and progressive form.
📌 Largy Poet (5/1) – Market sleeper. Unexposed over fences and may improve for the switch.

Both are worth backing at their current prices, with Donnacha a confident selection for win purposes and Largy Poet as a potential value alternative if the market underestimates his chase potential.

🏇 Recommended Bet: Donnacha (Win) & Largy Poet (Saver or Small Each-Way).