With just five runners and a very weak pace forecast, this is a race where tactical positioning could be crucial. The market has settled on Jolyjump and Non Stop as joint-favourites, but while both have obvious claims, there may be a case to look slightly beyond them for value.
Strongest Contender – NON STOP (7/4)
At the prices, NON STOP makes plenty of appeal. He ran well over hurdles here earlier in the season and has shaped well in novice handicap chases, most notably when second to Heros at Taunton last year. That form has worked out well, with the winner now rated 124.
Last time at Ascot, he finished fifth in a competitive handicap hurdle, shaping as if still in form despite a few sketchy jumps. A return to fences off an unchanged mark of 110 looks a solid opportunity, especially in a race where he may get an easy lead. Brendan Powell has a 38% strike rate when riding chase favourites, and Joe Tizzard’s horses are in good order. With race fitness on his side, he looks the one to beat.
Potentially Overlooked – AN BRADAN FEASA (9/2)
Jolyjump is respected given his form and return to a left-handed track, but at a similar price to Non Stop, he doesn’t make much appeal. Instead, the runner who could be underestimated is AN BRADAN FEASA.
His juvenile form for Joseph O’Brien included a Cheltenham win, and while his profile has been inconsistent since, he showed some promise when finishing fourth at Fakenham over a trip that likely stretched him. That run was better than the bare result, as he raced close to the pace before fading late. The return to 2m1f should be a positive, and with Tom Bellamy taking over, he could find this small field much easier to handle.
He’s not the most reliable, but his best efforts have come on soft ground, and if the front two underperform, he’s the one most likely to capitalise. At 9/2, he represents a better value play than Jolyjump.
Market Overreaction – ALTO ALTO (9/4)
Chris Gordon’s 23% strike rate at Plumpton and past success in this race seem to be influencing the price of Alto Alto, but he’s been badly out of form this season. His most recent runs (beaten 51L, 34L, 25L) make it hard to justify backing him at 9/4. He’s won here before, but the race setup looks less favourable today, and he’d need a serious return to form to justify this price.
Verdict & Recommended Bets
✅ Back: NON STOP (7/4) – Strongest contender
💡 Value Play: AN BRADAN FEASA (9/2) – Market may have overlooked his potential
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