The William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Novice Chase (Grade 2) at Navan has a short-priced favourite in BETTER DAYS AHEAD, but despite his undoubted class, he may not be as bombproof as the market suggests.

Gordon Elliott’s 7-year-old has been backed into odds-on favouritism (8/15) after finishing a head second in the Grade 1 Fort Leney Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. That form is solid, and he’s clearly progressive as a staying chaser. However, he had every chance to win that race and was just outbattled in the finish by Croke Park, leaving a small question mark over whether he has the tactical speed to cope with a slowly-run race today.

With a weak early pace forecast, horses that sit handy are likely to be at a distinct advantage. While BETTER DAYS AHEAD fits that category, he isn’t always the strongest traveller mid-race, which could leave him vulnerable.

VALUE OPTION: THREE CARD BRAG (3/1)

A bigger price alternative is stablemate THREE CARD BRAG, who could be underestimated. He ran better than the result suggested when seventh in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown, where he travelled well for a long way before fading. He bounced back last time out, winning a maiden chase at Navan by 2¾ lengths, jumping cleanly and finishing with authority.

His front-running style should be an advantage here, particularly in a small field where tactical speed will be crucial. If Jordan Gainford can get the fractions right up front, he could prove hard to peg back. He’s a strong stayer with proven heavy-ground form, and while he has been turned over at short prices before, he’s a genuine contender in this race at 3/1.

HIDDEN CHANCE: CHOSEN WITNESS (12/1)

One horse that could be overlooked by the market is CHOSEN WITNESS, trained by Willie Mullins. While his overall form doesn’t quite match up to the top two, he improved significantly when third behind Champ Kiely at Fairyhouse last time. His jumping was more assured than on his debut, and he stuck on well despite losing his position mid-race.

A soft/heavy ground specialist, he could be one to keep an eye on in-running. If the race develops into a stamina test, he’s one of the likeliest to be staying on past beaten horses. At double-figure odds (12/1), he could offer some trading potential on the exchanges.

CONCLUSION

• WIN BET: BETTER DAYS AHEAD (8/15) – The classiest horse in the race, but at a very short price.
• VALUE BET: THREE CARD BRAG (3/1) – Strong stayer who could control the race from the front.
• EXCHANGE TRADE: CHOSEN WITNESS (12/1) – One to watch in-running if stamina becomes a factor.

If THREE CARD BRAG is allowed to dictate, he could provide the most serious challenge to the favourite. But if the race turns into a grind, don’t be surprised to see CHOSEN WITNESS running on late at a big price.