The Sussex National Handicap Chase presents an intriguing puzzle, with a weak pace forecast making race positioning crucial over this 3m4f102y trip. In a contest where stamina, course experience, and tactical positioning will be key, there are a couple of runners who stand out as value plays, while one well-fancied contender might just be vulnerable.

Leading Contender – INVINCIBLE NAO (7/2)

Gary & Josh Moore’s gelding ticks plenty of boxes here. A course winner, he’s proven his effectiveness around Plumpton with a comfortable victory over 3m1½f last time, where he travelled strongly and kept on well to beat Morfee and Vision de Maine. Crucially, that race was run at a modest gallop, making it an ideal prep for today’s slowly-run affair. With the in-form Caoilin Quinn retaining the ride and the prospect of a tactical advantage racing handily, he makes plenty of appeal. The slight concern is whether an extra three furlongs stretches his stamina, but his style of running suggests he should cope. A 4lb rise seems fair, and he remains feasibly handicapped based on that performance.

Market Overlooked – DOM OF MARY (9/2)

The defending champion from David Bridgwater’s yard, Dom Of Mary, has flown slightly under the radar in the market, likely due to being pulled up on seasonal reappearance at Ascot. However, that effort came off an eight-month break following a wind operation, and given his history of needing a run, it’s no surprise he wasn’t at his sharpest. His record at Plumpton (1st in this race last year by 10 lengths) suggests this is a perfect target, and he remains only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark. He relishes testing trips, and despite a weak pace forecast, he has the tactical flexibility to race handily if needed. At his current price, he’s arguably the value alternative to the favourite.

Potential Market Miss – SUPERVISOR (15/2)

One who could be underestimated by the market is Venetia Williams’ Supervisor. He returned from a break with an encouraging second at Warwick over 3m last time, running well in a veterans’ race despite not looking fully tuned up. That effort suggests he could be primed for improvement here, especially with the extra distance likely to suit. He’s shown genuine staying ability in the past, and while he prefers softer ground, his best chase win came on good-to-soft. If they go even a fraction quicker than expected, he’s a live contender at an attractive price.

Conclusion & Betting Advice

With Invincible Nao expected to be well positioned in a weakly-run race and holding solid form claims, he deserves to be favourite. However, given Dom Of Mary’s previous course form and likely improvement from his seasonal reappearance, he looks slightly overpriced and may provide a stronger value play at 9/2. Supervisor is another worth considering at 15/2, particularly if the pace is stronger than anticipated.

• Main Bet: DOM OF MARY (9/2) – Each-Way Play
• Cover Bet: INVINCIBLE NAO (7/2) – Win
• Market Value: SUPERVISOR (15/2) – Place/Each-Way