This small-field novice event doesn’t immediately scream betting value at first glance, with the market firmly siding with Megaphone (11/10) as the likeliest winner. However, given the projected weak pace setup, there’s a case to be made that the favourite is far from bombproof, and there may be some overlooked angles elsewhere.

The Favourite: Megaphone – Short but Solid?

George Boughey’s colt justified strong market support when making all in a six-runner Kempton maiden last time. That performance was visually impressive, but it’s worth noting that his previous start at Newmarket was underwhelming, and it’s not yet clear how strong the Kempton form really is. He’s also dropping back from 6f to 5f here, which, on the surface, shouldn’t be an issue given his early speed, but a steady pace could put him at risk of being outpaced late on.

Given his likely front-running tactics, he’s got an obvious chance, but at odds-on, I’m not sure he represents great value – particularly as a late closer could threaten if they don’t go quick enough early.

---

The Market Danger: Queenofdestruction – Underrated by Some

The Crisford filly has finished second in her last three outings, trading low in running each time before failing to see things through. That naturally raises some concerns about her finishing effort, but on the flip side, the expected pace setup should play into her hands.

She’s run only at 5f so far, so we know the trip suits, and she’s shaped as though she’s capable of winning a race of this nature. With Hollie Doyle booked, and the Crisfords boasting a 21% strike rate at Wolverhampton, it’s no surprise she’s well found in the market at 2/1.

That said, given her tendency to travel well and trade low in running before failing to get the job done, she could be a strong in-play lay at short odds if she moves up ominously but doesn’t immediately go clear.

---

The Market Miss? Desert Champion – Worth a Second Look?

Desert Champion is 7lb better off with Megaphone for a 1¾-length defeat at Kempton. That, on paper, gives him a chance of reversing the form, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that he’s just not quite as sharp at this trip.

His pedigree suggests he’ll be better over 6f-7f, and his sectional times hint that he doesn’t possess the tactical speed required for a steadily-run 5f event. That said, if the race collapses late on, he could still run into a place, and at around 5/2, he’s a viable each-way or place option if he drifts slightly.

---

Final Thoughts & Betting Approach

• Strongest Contender: Megaphone (11/10) – The likely winner, but not unbeatable at the price.
• Value Play: Queenofdestruction (2/1) – Well-suited by the pace but best backed in-play rather than pre-race.
• Market Overlooked Angle: Desert Champion (5/2) – Well-treated at the weights but needs a pace collapse to feature.

Given the potential for a tactical affair, I’d be keen to play in-running rather than pre-race. Queenofdestruction could be a back-to-lay opportunity if she travels well but again finds little off the bridle, while Megaphone’s price may drift if he doesn’t get an easy lead.

Would I be rushing to take 11/10 on Megaphone pre-race? Probably not. Would I be happy to back Queenofdestruction at odds-against in-running if she’s still travelling well? Absolutely.