There’s every chance that the market has underestimated one of the runners in this contest, despite a progressive favourite heading the betting. While Aworkinprogress is an obvious and worthy market leader, I think there’s an argument to be made that the conditions of the race could slightly dent his effectiveness, while another runner could be lurking under the radar at an attractive price.

Strongest Contender: AWORKINPROGRESS

The Nick Gifford-trained 6-year-old has done nothing but improve over fences, boasting a perfect 3-3 record in this discipline. He arrives here seeking a fourth straight win, having shown an excellent attitude to grind out a narrow victory over this course and distance on heavy ground last time. That form has been well advertised since, with the runner-up going close in a better race on his next start.

He’s been raised 5lb for that latest win, which is unlikely to be enough to stop him given his upward trajectory. However, the pace of this race is worth considering. Aworkinprogress is typically held up, and the predicted weak early gallop could make life more difficult. His ability to quicken from off the pace remains unproven, though the heavy ground may slow the front-runners down enough to mitigate that risk.

He still rates the most likely winner, but at around 13/8, the price reflects his unbeaten chase record rather than offering outright value. While he only does enough in front, suggesting he may have more in hand than the handicapper realises, the lack of a strong early gallop could test his ability to quicken late. If the race sets up in a way that suits him, he could justify his price, but it’s not without risks.

The Overlooked Value: ARE U WISE TO THAT

At a general 10/3, Are U Wise To That looks a fair price, but perhaps should be closer to second favourite than Havaila. Jonjo O’Neill Jr’s mount bounced back to form last time when a solid second at Wetherby on heavy ground, shaping as though he would relish this extra stamina test. His best career effort arguably came at Cheltenham last season in a stronger race than this, and he looks well-treated off a mark of 125, considering he was running off 130 not long ago.

The booking of Jonjo O’Neill Jr. is a positive, and Are U Wise To That has proven himself adaptable to different pace scenarios. If they dawdle early, he won’t be as inconvenienced as some others, and with question marks about how well Aworkinprogress will cope if forced into a sprint late on, he makes solid each-way appeal at the current prices.

The Market Sleeper: MADAKET

One that may have slipped under the radar is Madaket, who makes his chase debut after showing plenty of promise over hurdles. He was last seen running a respectable third at Ffos Las in a stronger race than this, and his previous form on heavy ground suggests conditions will suit.

Crucially, he’s trained by Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, who have an excellent record with first-time chasers, particularly when switching horses to fences after a solid staying hurdle campaign. With some bookmakers offering 6/1, he looks a potential improver who could be dangerous to underestimate.

Conclusion & Recommended Bets

• Back ARE U WISE TO THAT each-way (10/3) – A strong second LTO on heavy, unexposed over fences at this trip, and better handicapped than it seems.
• Watch the market for MADAKET (6/1) – If money comes for him, he could be primed for a big chase debut.
• AWORKINPROGRESS (13/8) is the most likely winner, but the price is short enough given potential race shape concerns.

With Are U Wise To That and Madaket both holding strong claims at current odds, there’s value to be had in taking on the favourite at the prices available.