It’s a small field for this Class 4 handicap chase, and while the market has Thor De Cerisy as a strong contender, there’s a chance it’s underestimating a returning winner of this race who could go well at a price.

Strongest Contender – THOR DE CERISY (9/4)

Neil Mulholland’s runner ticks the most boxes here. He finished second over course and distance in December, and while he was only fifth last time at Windsor, that was a notably stronger race. The fact he traded at half his BSP in-running before fading late suggests he remains in good form.

Key factors in his favour:
✅ Proven heavy ground form – crucial given today’s testing conditions.
✅ Stamina assured – stays further, which could be vital on tiring ground.
✅ Handicapper has given him a chance – his current mark (116) is lower than his peak rating and looks workable.

The pace map suggests a steadily-run race, which is perhaps not ideal for a hold-up performer like him. However, in a field of unreliable sorts, his recent consistency and suitability for conditions make him the safest bet.

Market Could Be Missing – ROYAL MER (11/4) & CLONAKILTY (5/1)

Of those at bigger prices, the market may be undervaluing Royal Mer. He was well below form earlier this season but took a step back in the right direction last time when third at Uttoxeter. He’s now 5lb below his last winning mark, and crucially, that Uttoxeter race was run at a strong gallop on soft ground, making his staying-on third a decent effort. If he comes forward from that, he’s entitled to go well.

Clonakilty, last year’s winner of this race, is another one at a price who could be interesting. His seasonal reappearance was poor, but he was given a wind operation after that and is switching headgear today. He bolted up on heavy ground at Lingfield last year and could bounce back if the wind op has done the trick. The slight concern is that his last effort (39L fourth) suggests he has plenty to prove fitness-wise.

Betting Strategy for 16:02 Lingfield

1️⃣ Win Bet – THOR DE CERISY (9/4)

• The most solid runner based on form, ground suitability, and fitness.

2️⃣ Straight Forecast – THOR DE CERISY → ROYAL MER

• Royal Mer looks well handicapped and improving, so the 1-2 finish looks a strong probability.

3️⃣ Covering Forecast – THOR DE CERISY → CLONAKILTY

• Clonakilty won this race last year, and if the wind surgery helps, he could bounce back.