Tonight’s 1m6f Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton (6:30) looks a fascinating contest from a pace perspective. With only six runners and a “Very Weak” Pace Forecast, the shape of the race could have a significant impact on the result.

The obvious starting point is Path To Dubai (5/4), who was awarded victory at Southwell last time out after a bumping incident in the final furlong. James Tate’s runner has an excellent strike rate on the AW (22% at Wolverhampton), and there’s little doubt he’s a progressive stayer. However, the steady pace could be a concern, as his best performances have come in well-run races where he’s had something to aim at late on.

The key to the race could be KITTY FOYLE (11/2), who won at Goodwood last summer before switching to hurdling, where she performed creditably in a Listed novice at Taunton last time. While some may see the return to the Flat as a negative, it’s worth noting that she stays 2m well and has a strong front-running style, which could prove a tactical advantage here. With little pressure for the lead, Trevor Whelan should be able to dictate a steady gallop before kicking for home early in the straight.

Another runner who shouldn’t be overlooked by the market is SWINGING LONDON (8/1). A three-time winner on the AW this winter, he was only beaten half a length at Southwell last time after being held up in a race where it paid to race prominently. His strong finishing ability is a positive, but with today’s weak pace scenario, he’ll need a well-judged ride to get involved in time.

Market Overlooked?

One runner that might slip under the radar is OPTICIAN (6/1). Rossa Ryan’s mount has won four times at Wolverhampton and, while his last two runs were below his best, those were in steadily-run races that didn’t suit his usual stalk-and-pounce style. If the front-runners go harder than expected, he could pick up the pieces late.

Verdict

The market has Path To Dubai as favourite, but with tactical advantages in her favour, KITTY FOYLE (11/2) looks the one to be on. She stays well, races prominently, and if she gets an uncontested lead, she could be very difficult to peg back.

Swinging London and Optician are both interesting alternatives at bigger prices, with the latter potentially being overlooked by the market. If the early pace proves stronger than expected, he could be the one finishing best of all.

🔹 Bet: Kitty Foyle (11/2) Win
🔹 Value EW Play: Optician (6/1) Each-Way