When analysing the Grand National, we need to focus on key trends and patterns from previous winners. Based on historical data, here are the main factors to consider:

1. Age Trends

8 to 10-year-olds dominate – 19 of the last 24 winners (since 2000) have been in this range.

7-year-olds struggle – Only Noble Yeats (2022) has won at this age in modern times.

Older horses (11+) have had limited success – Only Auroras Encore (2013), Neptune Collonges (2012), Pineau De Re (2014), and Red Marauder (2001) won aged 11.


2. Weight & Official Rating (OR)

Ideal weight range: Winners typically carry 10st 3lb to 11st 6lb.

Top weights struggle – Many Clouds (2015) was the only winner since Red Rum (1974) to carry 11st 9lb+.

Official Ratings (OR) – Most winners have been rated between 136-160, with 146-150 being a sweet spot.


3. Stamina & Previous Chase Form

Stamina is crucial – Winning horses usually have proven ability over 3m+.

Class matters – 20 of the last 24 winners had already won a Class 1 or Class 2 chase.

Cheltenham form can be a plus – Many winners have run well at the Cheltenham Festival.


4. Recent Form & Fitness

Run within the last 50 days – 21 of the last 24 winners had run within 50 days of the race.

Strong recent form – Many winners had finished top 4 in one of their last 3 runs.

Avoid horses on long losing runs – No recent winner had been winless for more than 2 years.


5. Grand National Experience & Big Field Form

Previous Aintree experience helps – While some horses win on their first try, experience over Aintree fences (e.g., Becher Chase, Topham) is a plus.

Proven in big fields – Many past winners had previously won a chase with 16+ runners.


6. Betting Trends

Favourites have a poor record – Only Tiger Roll (2019), Don’t Push It (2010), and Hedgehunter (2005) won as favourites since 2000.

Sweet spot for odds: Winners often fall between 10/1 and 33/1.

Outsiders can win – Noble Yeats (50/1), Auroras Encore (66/1), Mon Mome (100/1), and Rule The World (33/1) have shocked the market.


7. Trainer & Jockey Trends

Gordon Elliott (3 wins since 2007) and Willie Mullins (2 wins since 2005) are key trainers.

Irish dominance – 5 of the last 7 winners have been trained in Ireland.

Jockeys with experience matter – Amateur riders struggle, though Sam Waley-Cohen won on Noble Yeats (2022).


8. Stallion Trends

Sires with strong stamina influence – Authorized, Yeats, and Oscar have produced recent winners.

French-bred horses have a growing impact – I Am Maximus (2024), Neptune Collonges (2012), and Mon Mome (2009) were French-bred.


9. Ground Conditions

Good to soft is the most common winning ground.

Heavy ground favours extreme stayers (e.g., Earth Summit in 1998 and Red Marauder in 2001).


Key Takeaways for 2025

When making a shortlist for this year’s Grand National, focus on: ✅ 8-10-year-olds
✅ Horses carrying 10st 3lb – 11st 6lb
✅ Proven stamina over 3m+
✅ Ran in the last 50 days
✅ Won in a big-field chase before
✅ Odds between 10/1 and 33/1
✅ Trained in Ireland or by a top British trainer
✅ Cheltenham Festival experience is a plus