A small but intriguing field lines up for this Class 3 1m7½f handicap chase, with the market leaning heavily towards Issam and Mount Tempest. However, the likely tactical setup of this race could have a bigger say in the outcome than the raw form figures suggest.

With a very weak pace forecast, positioning will be crucial, and one horse may be better suited than the market currently indicates.

Strongest Contender: ISSAM (11/8)

It’s hard to ignore ISSAM, who made a perfect start over fences at Exeter last month, winning by a head on heavy ground despite a lack of fluency in his jumping. That form might not be spectacular, but he showed a good attitude when challenged, and his pedigree suggests there’s more to come.

The key factor today is the expected pace setup. With no obvious front-runner, Issam is likely to be well-positioned in a slowly-run race, which could prove decisive against Mount Tempest, who does his best work when there’s an honest gallop.

A 5lb claim from Callum Pritchard is another positive, effectively reducing his burden to 11st 7lb. The market has already picked up on him, with support pushing his price into 6/5 from 6/4, and given the way this race could unfold, he’s the likeliest winner.

Potential Market Overlook: HYPOTENUS (6/1)

While the market is focusing on the top two, HYPOTENUS is being overlooked at 6/1, and there are reasons to believe he could run better than his odds suggest.

A lightly raced 6-year-old, he was a fairly useful hurdler in Ireland and shaped with promise on his first UK chase start when third over C&D on soft ground last month. That effort came off a 12-week break, so he’s entitled to improve for the run, and crucially, he has the tactical versatility to sit closer to the pace than some of his rivals.

Given the lack of strong pace in the race, if his jockey positions him prominently, he could easily outperform his market price.

Race Verdict

With conditions suiting and the tactical setup working in his favour, ISSAM is the most likely winner, and his current price of 11/8 still offers some value.

However, HYPOTENUS (6/1) may be underestimated, particularly if he can track the leaders early. If the front two fail to settle or underperform, he could pick up the pieces late on.

Betting Strategy

✅ ISSAM – Win (11/8)
✅ HYPOTENUS – Market Watch (Potential Improver at 6/1)

If the market shortens further on Mount Tempest, it might be worth reconsidering his fitness off a break, but ISSAM remains the most solid selection given how the race is likely to be run.