A small-field novices’ handicap chase where Rattling Road (4/5) has understandably been well backed after two impressive chase wins. Lucinda Russell’s runner has taken well to fences, showing clear progression, and should get an uncontested lead here, which is a major advantage at Newcastle over this trip. Derek Fox knows how to dictate from the front, and if allowed to set his own fractions, he will be hard to pass.

However, his price is now tight enough, especially given he has been beaten in 33% of similar races where he gets a solo lead. That isn’t to say he won’t win, but it does leave room to explore an alternative if he doesn’t dominate as expected.

One runner that looks underestimated by the market is Yealand (10/3). Jennie Candlish’s 6yo has a strong record at Newcastle (2 wins from 2), handles soft ground, and has shown consistent improvement over fences. His run at Doncaster last time, where he finished third in a stronger contest than this, suggests he remains competitive off this mark. Sean Quinlan knows him well, and if Rattling Road isn’t as dominant as expected, Yealand could be the one to capitalise.

The market has also latched onto Wild Side Of Life (10/3), but his jumping frailties make him a risky proposition. He fell on his chasing debut at Musselburgh when well backed, and while L J Morgan’s yard is in good form, his lack of chasing experience is a concern.

Of the outsiders, Coqolino (17/2) has chased home some fair horses in staying chases but doesn’t look like he has the pace for 2m4f in this ground, while Ozzy Cosmo (10/1) has failed to complete in two of his last three starts and looks up against it here.

Conclusion

• Rattling Road is clearly the most likely winner, but at odds-on, all value is gone.
• Yealand (10/3) offers a genuine alternative at a fair price and looks the main danger if the favourite underperforms.
• Wild Side Of Life (10/3) has potential but comes with jumping risks.

At the prices, Yealand is the most interesting play given his proven ability at this course and his progressive profile over fences.