The pace forecast suggests this could be a steadily run affair, which may not suit those reliant on a strong gallop to bring their stamina into play. Prominent racers tend to be favoured in this type of setup at Newcastle, and one runner stands out as well-positioned to capitalise.

The Strongest Contender: Authorized Mission (4/1)

Authorized Mission has shaped like a horse still on the upgrade and was impressive when winning over further at Newcastle last time. That 3¼-length success came over 2m6f on soft ground, and he travelled notably well before quickening clear in the closing stages. The drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue in a race where the pace isn’t likely to be excessive, and his ability to travel smoothly in mid-division before finishing strongly could prove decisive.

The trainer’s record at Newcastle suggests he places his runners here selectively, and a repeat of his latest effort off a mark of 103 still leaves room for further improvement. Given his profile, he deserves to be favourite, yet he remains available at 4/1, which could still represent value.

The Market May Be Underestimating: Galahad Threepwood (11/2)

Despite being beaten last time, Galahad Threepwood’s third-place finish over 2m½f at Newcastle was a stronger run than it first appeared. He was one of the few to make any significant ground in the closing stages, and that form is beginning to work out well. Stepping up to 2m4½f should play to his strengths, and he looks overpriced at 11/2 in a race lacking obvious pace.

His form figures suggest inconsistency, but his best performances have come in similar conditions, and he could find himself in an ideal position just behind the leaders before staying on strongly. If he gets a race run to suit, he could be a much shorter price in-running than he is at the off.

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Conclusion

With Authorized Mission shaping like a horse still ahead of the handicapper, he looks the most solid selection at 4/1, particularly given his proven course form, ability to travel smoothly, and suitability to the likely race setup.

At a slightly bigger price, Galahad Threepwood (11/2) looks the one the market may be underestimating, with his last run suggesting he could improve for this step up in trip. If the pace isn’t strong, he’s one to watch for a big in-running trade.