This Class 3 handicap chase at Sandown features a small but competitive field, and the market looks to have priced the race fairly accurately at the top end. However, there are reasons to believe one runner may be underestimated, given the likely race shape and conditions.

The pace forecast suggests a steady gallop, which could give an edge to those racing prominently. Historically, Sandown’s chase course favours those who travel well and conserve energy over this trip, particularly on testing ground.


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The Strongest Contender – Happy And Fine (11/2)

There’s a strong case to be made for Happy And Fine, who ran well on his seasonal return at Haydock and is now 1lb lower in a slightly easier race. A winner at both Leicester and Haydock last season, he has proven stamina for this trip and won’t mind the soft ground.

His run at Haydock last time looks better than it appears at first glance. He was beaten just 4½ lengths in a stronger race, having raced up with the pace before fading late. That was after a nine-month absence, and he is entitled to come on for the run.

A key factor is the likely pace setup. Happy And Fine races prominently and could be in the perfect position if this turns tactical. The weak pace projection suggests he may be able to control the race from the front, and in a field lacking strong closers, that could prove decisive.

At 11/2, he looks a solid bet at the prices, particularly if the expected tactical scenario unfolds in his favour.


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Market Miss – Mylesfromwicklow (8/1)

The market seems to have overlooked Mylesfromwicklow, who has a much stronger chance than his odds suggest. On paper, his last three runs don’t inspire confidence, but there are mitigating factors.

He’s undergone a breathing operation, which can often lead to significant improvement.

His best form has come on soft and heavy ground, and he looks well-handicapped on old form.

The Dan Skelton yard has a history of improving horses after mid-season breaks, and he could be primed for a bounce-back performance.


His two Ascot runs last autumn were solid efforts in better races than this, and if the wind op has the desired effect, he could easily outperform his odds.


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Final Thoughts

Happy And Fine (11/2) is the standout contender given his profile, fitness edge, and tactical position. He’s a strong traveller who should relish conditions, and in a race where race positioning will be crucial, he looks the likeliest winner.

Meanwhile, Mylesfromwicklow (8/1) is the one the market may have missed. If the breathing operation sparks improvement, he could run much better than his odds suggest.

It’s a small field, but the market might not fully reflect how this race will be run, and at the current prices, Happy And Fine makes the most appeal.