A competitive 7f handicap on the Tapeta at Newcastle, where course form and pace dynamics are often key. With several familiar names boasting strong course form, this race sets up to be a tactical affair.

Strongest Contender – Barnaby (11/4)

There’s plenty to like about Barnaby, who has become a real Tapeta specialist, notching up four wins at this track, including an impressive success over course and distance last time. His latest victory was particularly eye-catching, staying on powerfully to win by 1½ lengths, and the form looks solid with runner-up Tasever a reliable yardstick. A breathing operation over the winter seems to have unlocked further improvement, and with Oisin McSweeney’s valuable 3lb claim effectively taking him down to a mark of 75, he looks well-in. From a prominent racing position, which is often advantageous on Newcastle’s straight track, he has every chance of following up.

Value Play – Lerwick (6/1)

The market may be underestimating Lerwick, who bounced back to form when a game second to Bajan Bandit at Southwell last time. That effort came in first-time blinkers, which appeared to sharpen him up significantly, and with the headgear retained, a similar performance could see him go very close. He’s only 1lb higher here, and the drop back to 7f should suit, given his prominent racing style. Billy Loughnane is a highly promising rider with a good record at Newcastle, and at 6/1, Lerwick looks a solid value play.

Race Shape and Pace Analysis:

With front-runners Zip and Lerwick likely to set a genuine pace, this should suit horses racing on or just behind the speed. Barnaby and William Dewhirst should get ideal stalking positions. A steady gallop could expose hold-up types like King’s School and Callianassa, especially on this track where it can be tough to come from behind.

Verdict:

Strongest Contender: Barnaby (11/4) – Proven course specialist, thriving on Tapeta, well-treated with a claimer.

Value Play: Lerwick (6/1) – Blinkers sparked improvement, well-handicapped, and suited to the likely pace scenario.


The market appears to have it about right at the top end, but Lerwick could be the one slipping under the radar with more to come in the headgear.