The 2:50 at Carlisle presents an intriguing 3m1f handicap chase with just seven runners, and while the market rightly highlights Fortunate Man as the current favourite at 6/4, there’s reason to believe one runner offers significantly better value.

Fortunate Man arrives with standout form figures, including an impressive last-run rating of 103, and his progressive profile suggests further improvement is possible. His trainer’s form is solid, and the horse’s suitability for this trip and ground is undeniable. However, the current price feels restrictive given the competitive nature of this field.

One runner the market seems to be underestimating is Geryville, available at 9/1. His last-run rating of 109.6 is the best in the field, and his proven stamina over similar distances makes him an appealing contender. Carlisle’s undulating track often exposes stamina limitations, but Geryville has demonstrated resilience in similar conditions. With a capable jockey and a trainer enjoying a decent spell, the current odds offer genuine value.

Tanganyika also warrants consideration, but concerns about his ability to stay this trip under today’s conditions temper enthusiasm despite his last-run figure of 103.1.

While Fortunate Man is the most likely winner, Geryville provides a value alternative, and his price is difficult to ignore given his recent form and suitability for the task at hand.

Strongest contender: Fortunate Man
Value pick: Geryville (9/1)