The Devon National at Exeter is a true test of stamina, run over 3m6f on what can often be testing ground. This year’s renewal takes place on good to soft going, meaning we’re looking for horses with proven stamina and the ability to see out a gruelling contest.

Key Race Trends

Looking at the last 15 years, some clear trends emerge:

• Age: 8-11-year-olds have won 18 of the last 21 renewals.
• Official Rating (OR): Winners typically rated between 111 and 131.
• Weight: Most winners carried 10-10 to 11-10.
• Last Run: 11 of the last 12 winners ran within 60 days.
• Market Position: Horses priced 9/2 to 12/1 have dominated.
• Proven Stamina: Horses with winning form over 3m5f+ tend to do well.

Applying the Trends to This Year’s Runners

1️⃣ Planned Paradise (13/2) – The strongest contender on trends. He’s a 9-year-old, carries 10-13, and won last time over 31f, proving his staying power. Trainer Christian Williams has a great record with marathon chasers, and his strike rate with one runner per meeting at Exeter is solid. Ticks most boxes.

2️⃣ Gold Clermont (11/2) – A 9-year-old with a 132 rating and 10-11 weight, she has placed over 3m5f, so stamina shouldn’t be an issue. She ran well just 14 days ago, which suggests she’s race-fit.

3️⃣ Fortescue (15/2) – 11 years old, so slightly older than ideal but still within the strongest age range. Carries 12-0, which is a concern, but he stays well and has form in similar stamina tests.

Verdict

✅ Best Bet – Planned Paradise (13/2): Ticks the most boxes, well-handicapped, and proven at the trip. ✅ Value Pick – Gold Clermont (11/2): Looks a strong each-way play. ⚠️ Fortescue (15/2): Has the stamina but carries a big weight.

With conditions looking fair, this should be a proper staying contest. Planned Paradise looks the safest bet based on historical trends and race conditions. Gold Clermont is a lively each-way contender, while Fortescue has the experience but may find the weight tough.