Here’s how I would price the 14:15 Fairyhouse – Tommy Carberry Handicap Hurdle (2m4f, Soft to Heavy, 16 runners) from scratch for the Betfair Exchange market, based on form analysis, Timeform ratings, HRB stats, and pace assessment.


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Key Pricing Considerations

1. Form & Performance: Horses with strong recent form and proven ability in soft-heavy conditions are favoured.


2. TimeWise Ratings & Speed Figures: A mix of raw performance and expected suitability to the race setup.


3. Pace Impact: Given the very strong pace forecast, front-runners are at risk of fading, and closers are expected to be favoured.


4. Market Trends: Adjustments for horses that are likely to be well-backed (e.g., those from top stables or in good betting shape).




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100% Book – My Fair Odds for Exchange Market

📌 Book Total: 100%


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Key Adjustments from Market Odds

Sporting Glory (6.5) → Market 9/1 → I make him shorter due to his potential for improvement.

Shadow Rider (7.5) → Market 12/1 → More value in a race set up for closers.

Prends Garde A Toi (8.0) → Market 12/1 → Stamina-based runner better than market suggests.

Dancing Jeremy (9.0) → Market 7/1 → Market slightly overvalues his chance due to possible pace pressure.

Slane Hill (10.0) → Market 6/1 → He is too short at 6/1 given the pace risks.

Glen Kiln (11.0) → Market 6/1 → I have him slightly bigger due to potential vulnerability in a strong-run race.



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Final Betting Angle

✅ Strongest Win Bet: Sporting Glory (6.5, 11/2)
💡 Best Each-Way Plays: Shadow Rider (7.5, 13/2) & Prends Garde A Toi (8.0, 7/1)
🚨 Horses to Take On: Slane Hill (too short at 6/1, fair price 10.0) & Glen Kiln (too short at 6/1, fair price 11.0).