With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, attention naturally turns to the weather and how it might impact the going at Prestbury Park. As of today, 4 March 2025, the forecast points towards largely settled conditions, with no major downpours expected. Here’s a straightforward look at what the weather has in store and what that might mean for the ground.

Weather Overview (4 – 14 March)

The coming week (4–10 March) is set to be mostly dry, with daytime temperatures ranging from 10–16°C and only the odd shower expected. Some forecasts mention light rain on Thursday and Friday (6–7 March), but amounts look small and unlikely to significantly affect the course.

The weekend prior to the festival (8–9 March) is also expected to stay dry with pleasant temperatures, giving the ground more time to dry out after the wetter spells in February. A bit of rain might arrive on Monday 10 March, but again, forecasts suggest no more than 1–3mm.

Looking ahead to the festival itself (11–14 March):

Tuesday (Champion Day): Cloudy with light rain or drizzle possible, particularly in the morning. Totals of 1–3mm of rain are forecast, which shouldn’t dramatically alter conditions.

Wednesday – Friday (Ladies Day to Gold Cup Day): Largely dry with some sunshine and temperatures around 10–14°C. There’s a mention of possible showers on Gold Cup Day (around 2–4mm), but overall, the picture is of a settled and relatively mild week.


Going Update

As of 3 March, the official going at Cheltenham was reported as Soft following rain in late February, including around 20mm noted by some sources. However, with the dry spell now underway and mild temperatures helping with evaporation, the ground is already improving.

If the forecast holds, there’s every chance the going will shift to Good to Soft by the start of the festival. Should the dry weather continue into midweek, and with the good drainage at Cheltenham, parts of the track could even reach Good, particularly by Thursday.

Any rain on the Friday, if it arrives, could soften things slightly again for Gold Cup Day, but unless there’s a late, unexpected deluge, Heavy ground looks very unlikely.

Course Conditions and Management

Cheltenham has an excellent drainage system, which helps the track recover quickly from rain. The ground staff, led by clerk of the course Jon Pullin, are proactive in managing the surface. In recent years, we’ve even seen watering applied during dry spells to avoid the ground becoming too quick.

It’s also worth noting that Cheltenham uses two courses during the festival – the Old Course (Tuesday and Wednesday) and the New Course (Thursday and Friday). The New Course traditionally rides slightly slower and holds moisture a bit longer, so even if the Old Course has dried to Good, the New Course may still be on the softer side.

Key Considerations for Punters

Monitor the weather closely, especially from 9 March onwards. A change in the forecast could still shift the going one way or the other.

Horses with proven form on Good to Soft are likely to be favoured if the current forecast holds.

Soft ground specialists may still be competitive early in the week but could become less suited if the drying trend continues into the latter stages.

Gold Cup Day has the highest chance of showers, but current indications suggest they won’t be severe.


Final Thoughts

At this stage, the signs point towards a Cheltenham Festival run on Good to Soft ground, with the potential for Good in places if the dry spell holds and temperatures stay mild. Punters should prepare for adaptable conditions and favour horses proven on Good to Soft going – with an eye on how the weather develops closer to the off.