The 3.25 at Catterick is a small-field Class 5 handicap chase over 1m7½f, featuring just four runners. It’s a weak contest on paper, but one that should suit Treaty Boy, who arrives in top form.

Race Setup

The pace is expected to be steady, which typically benefits those who race prominently. Treaty Boy made all when winning over course and distance just eight days ago and is likely to adopt similar tactics. The track clearly suits him, and with his confidence boosted by that recent win, he holds strong claims of following up under a penalty.

His main threat is Beny Nahar Road, a consistent type who often runs well without winning. He’s been placed on his last few starts and looks the obvious forecast option, but there’s not much evidence to suggest he can turn the tables on an improving and course-proven rival like Treaty Boy.

Ensel Du Perche won here on New Year’s Day but followed that up with a disappointing run at Newcastle. He’s capable on his day but is difficult to trust for back-to-back performances.
At the bottom of the field, McGrath From Clune has shown very little this season and is hard to fancy unless bouncing back in a big way.

Market Check

On the Betfair Exchange this morning, Treaty Boy is trading around 1.95 to 2.06, which looks fair value considering his profile and the lack of strong opposition. Beny Nahar Road sits around 4.0, with Ensel Du Perche slightly bigger, and McGrath From Clune out the back at huge odds.

Verdict

This race revolves around Treaty Boy. He’s in form, has ideal conditions, and should be able to dominate from the front again. There’s little appeal in opposing him.
For those looking beyond the win market, a forecast pairing him with Beny Nahar Road makes sense.

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Selection:

Treaty Boy – Win
Forecast: Treaty Boy > Beny Nahar Road