This is an early look at the 3.40 Fontwell – a Class 5 handicap hurdle over 2m3½f on good to soft ground. As always, be aware that markets can shift significantly overnight and especially on race day. What looks like value now could be gone by the morning or near the off, and prices often contract sharply in the final hour before the race.

How We Work Out Fair Odds

We’ve applied our Tissue v2+Timeform method to assess the field. This combines:

• HRB TimeWise ratings and rankings to sort the field by overall ability.
• Rank-based percentage adjustments to distribute fair win probabilities based on a typical race of this size (in this case, 11 runners).
• Timeform insights, including their Analyst Verdict, pace forecasts, and suitability comments, to tweak confidence in each horse.
• Context checks, like pace angles and recent market performance, to catch anything the raw numbers might miss.

These percentages are then converted into fair odds to compare against the live market. If the best available odds are bigger than our fair price, the horse is a value bet. If the market is shorter than our tissue, we consider it too short to back.

Early Fair Odds Tissue (Tissue v2+Timeform)

Horse	Fair Odds	Best Evening Odds	Value?
What’s One More	7/2	5/2	❌ No value
Our Dylan	5/1	9/2	❌ Slightly short
Activist	15/2	10/1	✅ Value
Copper Cove	9/1	9/1	⚖️ Fair
Decorated	10/1	9/1	❌ Just under
Soigneux Bell	12/1	4/1	❌ No value
Tea And Chats	14/1	7/1	❌ No value
Little Lady Lucy	25/1	7/1	❌ No value
Kingston Bresil	20/1	16/1	⚠️ Close
Storming Nelson	33/1	18/1	❌ No value
Low Expectations	25/1	20/1	⚠️ Fair-ish

Early Thoughts on the Race

At these prices, two horses stand out:

✅ Activist (10/1)

• Offers the clearest value against our tissue.
• Has recent winning form and excuses for his last run.
• Ground, trip, and class are all suitable.
• Looks a fair each-way play at double-figure odds.

✅ Copper Cove (9/1)

• Right on our fair price, so only just worth considering.
• Has course form and could get an uncontested lead, which would be ideal at Fontwell.
• Slight concerns over recent form but the return to a more suitable trip helps.

Horses to Avoid at Current Prices

The market is very strong on What’s One More (5/2) and Soigneux Bell (4/1). Both are far shorter than our fair odds, so unless they drift out significantly, they don’t appeal from a value perspective.

Final Note

This is an early tissue check, not a final bet list. These odds were available the evening before the race, and plenty can change overnight and on the day itself.