midday look:
Projected Fair Odds & Value Assessment:
| Horse | Fair Odds (Tissue v3) | Current Odds | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amemri | 4/1 | 7/2 | ❌ | Strongest profile, but market short. |
| Still She Blooms | 11/2 | 9/2 | ❌ | Keane onboard is a big plus, but price now tight. |
| Finsceal Annie | 6/1 | 11/2 | ✔️ | Track/distance/going stats good; holds form. |
| Pink Oxalis | 8/1 | 13/2 | ✔️ | Well-fancied by Timeform; pace angle leader. |
| Notforalongtime | 13/2 | 10/1 | ✅ | Market still underrating, two wins from last three. |
| Circles | 12/1 | 10/1 | ➖ | Reliable but lacks the punch of the others. |
| Royal Tribute | 20/1 | 22/1 | ✔️ | Small interest at big odds, okay profile. |
| Jackandthefox | 33/1 | 22/1 | ❌ | Ran okay latest, but others preferred. |
| Superior Force | 40/1 | 28/1 | ❌ | Struggling lately. |
| Roderick | 33/1 | 33/1 | ➖ | Place potential only. |
| Suityourselfboss | 66/1 | 40/1 | ❌ | Form has fallen off a cliff. |
| Nikki Swango | 66/1 | 22/1 | ❌ | Doesn’t appeal on recent form. |
| Knockmore Prince | 33/1 | 22/1 | ❌ | Just a fair sort. |
| Bucky Larson | 66/1 | 14/1 | ❌ | No thanks at that price. |
📝 Pace & Race Shape Notes:
- Forecast pace: Strong.
- Front-runners: Knockmore Prince, Royal Tribute.
- Prominent racers are often favoured at Dundalk over 7f, and with this pace, strong closers could benefit late.
- Amemri, Notforalongtime and Still She Blooms can all sit handy or pounce.
- Pink Oxalis could slip through from a midfield spot with the right break.
🔍 Tissue v3 + Timeform Verdict:
- 🏆 Top Win Chance:
Amemri (despite skinny odds, has peak form and is thriving). - 🎯 Best Value Bet:
Notforalongtime (10/1) – strong profile, back-to-back Dundalk form, and great place chance. - 🧐 Secondary Value Play:
Pink Oxalis (13/2) – positive pace hints, forecast strong run. - ⚠️ Live EW Outsider:
Royal Tribute (22/1) – sneaky place angle if race collapses late.
🏁 Final Ranked Order (Projection):
- Amemri
- Notforalongtime
- Pink Oxalis
- Still She Blooms
- Finsceal Annie
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