Anyone keeping an eye on trainer trends will have noticed the excellent recent run of form from Emma Lavelle. The numbers are clear and point to a yard operating at a very high level right now, and it’s something punters should be taking seriously.

Current Form Breakdown

Over the past couple of months, Lavelle’s runners have been consistently hitting the frame, and more importantly, winning. Here’s how the stable’s figures stack up:

• Last 7 days: 7 runners, 2 winners (29% strike rate)
• Last 14 days: 11 runners, 4 winners (36% strike rate)
• Last 30 days: 27 runners, 7 winners (26% strike rate)
• Last 60 days: 58 runners, 16 winners (28% strike rate)
• Last 90 days: 94 runners, 23 winners (24% strike rate)

What stands out immediately is that these aren’t small sample sizes. The stable has been busy, and the strike rates remain well above average across every recent period. To put it into context, a strike rate around 15-18% is typical for a good National Hunt yard, so anything breaking the 25% mark or higher is notable.

In addition, the place percentages are equally strong:

• 44% placed in the last month.
• 50% placed across the last 90 days.

This suggests that even Lavelle’s horses who aren’t winning are still running to form and competing well.

Why Does This Matter?

When a yard hits this kind of form, it’s crucial to factor it into your race analysis. Horses that might otherwise be overlooked at bigger prices can suddenly outrun their odds. It can also be an edge in more competitive races, where trainer form can be the deciding factor between two similarly-rated horses.

What Should We Be Looking For?

1️⃣ Second/Third Runs After Breaks

Lavelle’s horses often improve for a run, and a few of her recent winners had the benefit of a comeback spin before striking. Fitness and progression are worth watching with this yard, particularly at this time of year.

2️⃣ Class 3 and 4 Handicaps

The bulk of Lavelle’s winners tend to come in handicaps at the mid-levels, especially in the 0-110 to 0-120 bracket. Races at these levels are usually less competitive than the big spring festivals, and Lavelle seems to target them well.

3️⃣ Jockey Bookings

Watch for when she uses top-tier riders like Harry Cobden, as we see today with Haas Boy at Exeter. While Lavelle uses a few regular names, a stronger jockey booking is often a clear signal of intent.

4️⃣ Soft Ground

Looking at her runners over the past few seasons, the stable has a solid record on softer ground, which is no surprise given the time of year. If conditions stay testing, this could extend her good run well into the spring.

---

Today’s Example – Haas Boy (3.45 Exeter)

Haas Boy is a solid case study. After a layoff, he showed promise to finish third at Exeter last month and now goes again under Cobden. With the stable flying, there’s every chance of further improvement, and 7/1 could look generous if the yard’s form holds.

---

Final Thoughts

Trainer form can often be an overlooked angle in betting, but periods like this are exactly when it pays to sit up and take notice. Emma Lavelle is in the middle of a strong spell, and until the numbers say otherwise, her runners demand extra consideration. Whether it’s win-only bets or each-way plays in decent-sized fields, this is a yard worth keeping firmly on side.