The curtain rises on the most eagerly anticipated event in the National Hunt calendar: the Cheltenham Festival. Day One, known as Champion Day, takes place on Tuesday 11th March 2025 and sets the tone for a thrilling week of racing. With high-quality Grade 1 action, fiercely competitive handicaps, and star names on show, here is your definitive guide to all the action, complete with Timeform ratings, statistics, historical trends, the computer has crunched the numbers.

Going & Conditions

• Official Going: Good to Soft (Good in places)
• Pace Forecasts: Extreme in the Supreme and Fred Winter; Strong in the Ultima; Even pace expected in the Arkle, Mares’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle.
• Weather: Dry with sunny intervals, temperatures around 7-8°C. Ground may dry further as the day progresses.
• Track Insight: The Old Course is sharper than its New Course counterpart, with a shorter run-in. Speed and tactical positioning are vital.

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Historic Trends & Betting Stats – Day One Snapshot:

• Irish-trained horses have dominated in recent years, winning 63% of Day One races since 2015.
• 72% of Day One Grade 1 winners in the last decade had a Timeform “p” or “P” indicating improvement potential.
• 78% of winning favourites on Day One were returned at 3/1 or shorter.
• The Ultima remains one of the best races for British-trained contenders – 15 of the last 16 winners were UK-based.

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Race 1 – 13:20 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 87y)

Overview: The traditional festival curtain-raiser, often a harbinger of dominance for Irish-trained stars. An “Extreme” pace forecast signals a truly testing end-to-end gallop.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Kopek Des Bordes (168P) – Unbeaten; leading contender from the Mullins yard.
• Romeo Coolio (163p) – Festival trials winner; progressive profile.
• Tripoli Flyer (157) – Lightly raced; improving for a top UK yard.

Key Trends:

• 10/13 winners trained in Ireland.
• 11/13 rated 150+ by Timeform.
• 9/13 had won a Grade 1 or 2.
• 8/13 had run within the past 40 days.

Betting Angle: Back the highest-rated Irish-trained contender carrying a “p” symbol. Cover an improving British outsider for place potential.

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Race 2 – 14:00 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1, 1m 7f 199y)

Overview: Speed, precision jumping and tactical nous define the Arkle. A race where class typically tells.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Majborough (175p) – Arguably the best novice chaser seen this season.
• L’Eau Du Sud (170p) – Impressive jumper with tactical speed.
• Only By Night (165p) – Market support growing.

Key Trends:

• 10/11 winners were top two in the betting.
• 9/10 had won over 2m+ fences prior.
• 8/10 had run within the last 60 days.

Betting Angle: The highest-rated Timeform horse has won this race 8 of the last 10 years. Follow the numbers.

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Race 3 – 14:40 Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap, 3m 1f)

Overview: The most wide-open race on Day One, typically suiting UK-trained novices and lighter weights.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Katate Dori (166) – Impressive win at Newbury.
• Crebilly (163) – Well-handicapped; stable flying.
• Myretown (162p) – Unexposed; strong late sectionals.

Key Trends:

• 14/16 UK-trained winners.
• 10/12 carried 11st or less.
• 6/12 winners were novices.

Betting Angle: Look for a British-trained novice with a Timeform figure of 160+, carrying under 11st.

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Race 4 – 15:20 Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 4f)

Overview: With Lossiemouth stepping in, this year’s renewal could redefine the race’s status.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Lossiemouth (174) – Top-rated on all known form.
• Jade De Grugy (165p) – Improving fast.
• July Flower (160) – Fresh and well-suited to this trip.

Key Trends:

• 9/15 trained by Willie Mullins.
• 11/12 aged 5–7.
• 10/12 ran within 60 days of the Festival.

Betting Angle: Strong preference for Mullins runners aged 5–6 with a “P” rating.

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Race 5 – 16:00 Champion Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m 87y)

Overview: The day’s showpiece event. Constitution Hill bids to cement his legacy against the formidable State Man and emerging Brighterdaysahead.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Constitution Hill (188) – The highest Timeform rating of any jumps horse this century.
• Brighterdaysahead (185) – Enigmatic talent.
• State Man (178) – Champion Hurdle winner; cheekpieces reapplied.

Key Trends:

• 13/15 winners rated 160+.
• 9/11 from top two in betting.
• No 5yo winner since 1985.

Betting Angle: Back Constitution Hill if fit and firing. Use forecasts or ‘without’ markets to maximise value.

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Race 6 – 16:40 Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter, Premier Handicap, 2m 87y)

Overview: Chaos and value reign. Typically dominated by late money and French-bred juveniles.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Hot Fuss (146)
• Liam Swagger (143)
• Stencil (143)

Key Trends:

• 6/10 winners trained in Ireland.
• 8/10 carried 11st or less.
• French-breds have an edge (6 wins since 2010).

Betting Angle: Value hunting is key. Watch for late movers and cover a few improvers with low weights.

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Race 7 – 17:20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (3m 5f 201y)

Overview: Transitioned to a handicap format this year – stamina and maturity critical.

Top Timeform Ratings:

• Transmission (158p)
• Will Do (154)
• Rock My Way (153)

Key Trends:

• Strong correlation with top-rated Timeform horses.
• Fresh horses often outperform.
• 6/10 winners came from top six in betting.

Betting Angle: Prioritise Timeform ratings and stamina profiles. Focus on 150+ horses from in-form yards.

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Final Thoughts – The Verdict

• Best Bet of the Day: Majborough (Arkle – 14:00)
• Value Play: Romeo Coolio (Supreme – 13:20)
• Each-Way Angle: Myretown (Ultima – 14:40)
• Big-Race Forecast: Constitution Hill to beat State Man (Champion Hurdle)
• Dark Horse: Beyond Your Dreams (Fred Winter – 16:40)