Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2m5f Grade 1) – 1:30pm
Past Winners: This race (registered as the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle) is typically won by high-class 5- or 6-year-old novice hurdlers. Willie Mullins has trained the last three winners – Sir Gerhard (2022), Impaire Et Passe (2023), and Ballyburn (2024) – all ridden by Paul Townend
racingbetter.co.uk. In fact, 18 of the last 19 winners were aged 5 or 6
geegeez.co.uk, with the lone exception being 7-year-old Sir Gerhard. Recent winners have all been short-priced: most came from the top four in the betting and started at 8/1 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk. It’s common for the favourite or a leading fancy to prevail – for example, Envoi Allen (2020) at 4/7, Bob Olinger (2021) at 6/4, and Sir Gerhard (2022) at 8/11 were all well-backed favorites who delivered
racingbetter.co.uk. Big outsiders are rare (only one winner since 2011 returned above 10/1). The table below profiles the past five winners:
| Year | Winner (Age) | Trainer (Country) | Jockey | SP (Fav?) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Impaire Et Passe (5) | W. P. Mullins (IRE)racingbetter.co.uk | Paul Townendracingbetter.co.uk | 5/2 (2nd fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2022 | Sir Gerhard (7) | W. P. Mullins (IRE)racingbetter.co.uk | Paul Townendracingbetter.co.uk | 8/11 (Fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2021 | Bob Olinger (6) | Henry de Bromhead (IRE)racingbetter.co.uk | Rachael Blackmoreracingbetter.co.uk | 6/4 (Fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2020 | Envoi Allen (6) | Gordon Elliott (IRE)racingbetter.co.uk | Davy Russellracingbetter.co.uk | 4/7 (Fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2019 | City Island (6) | Martin Brassil (IRE)racingbetter.co.uk | Mark Walshracingbetter.co.uk | 8/1racingbetter.co.uk |
<small>Table: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle winners and profiles, 2019–2023.
racingbetter.co.uk</small>
Trainer/Jockey Performance: Irish trainers dominate this race – Mullins alone has 7 wins in the last 17 runnings (including 5 of the past 11)
geegeez.co.uk. Other Irish yards like Gordon Elliott’s have also succeeded (Samcro in 2018, Envoi Allen in 2020). Among British trainers, only a few have broken the Irish streak (Ben Pauling with Willoughby Court in 2017, for example). Jockey Paul Townend has won the last three editions for Mullins, extending Mullins’ grip. Prior to that, top riders like Ruby Walsh (four wins) and Davy Russell have multiple victories in this event
racingbetter.co.uk. Notably, Rachael Blackmore became the first female jockey to win it on Bob Olinger (2021)
Impact of Pace: A strong early pace is often seen, given novices’ enthusiasm, but winners usually possess the tactical speed to pounce late in the race. In several renewals the field went a solid gallop and the winner emerged from just off the pace turning for home. For instance, City Island (2019) tracked the leaders and stayed on strongly up the hill, out-finishing Champ (the favourite)
racingbetter.co.uk. By contrast, front-running tactics can pay off in the right conditions – Willoughby Court (2017) dictated from the front and held on by a head to upset the odds-on Neon Wolf
racingbetter.co.uk. Generally, the ability to travel well and then quicken between the final two hurdles is key, as seen with Ballyburn (2024) who pulled away between the last two flights when asked
racingbetter.co.uk. Pure hold-up horses can find trouble in such a big field, but strong stayers who sit midfield and advance on the long final turn often thrive.
Ground Conditions: The Ballymore has been won on a variety of goings. Most recent runnings have been on soft or good-to-soft ground, which top contenders handled without issue. In 2023 the going was officially Soft
racingbetter.co.uk, and Impaire Et Passe relished the testing surface, scoring by 6½ lengths. In drier years (e.g. 2019, good-to-soft), winners still tended to be the class horses rather than shock mudlarks. There isn’t an obvious ground bias – quality novices adapt – but a very heavy surface could emphasize stamina. Notably, all five of Mullins’ recent winners (Faugheen, Yorkhill, Sir Gerhard, Impaire Et Passe, Ballyburn) had shown form on soft ground, so they were versatile. If anything, a softer surface can blunt the speed of some rivals and play to the strengths of Irish horses, who often race on winter ground at home. On balance, conditions haven’t derailed the favorites in this race: even on soft/heavy, market leaders have tended to run to form (e.g. Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard both won on soft). Connections do pay attention to ground in choosing the Ballymore vs the shorter Supreme; horses running here usually handle the trip and underfoot conditions. We see that in 2022, Sir Gerhard’s team opted for the Ballymore (2m5f) on rain-affected ground rather than the Supreme, a decision rewarded with victory
Key Betting Trends: Bettors generally get this race right. 16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
geegeez.co.uk, and outright favourites have won roughly half of the last decade’s renewals. Short-priced hype horses often deliver (especially Irish stars). For example, from 2014–2022, seven winners started 6/4 or shorter. The only real upsets in recent times were Willoughby Court (14/1 in 2017) and City Island (8/1 in 2019)
racingbetter.co.uk – and even those were well-regarded novices not far down the betting list. This aligns with the stat that 20 of the last 24 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk. Punters also note the Irish dominance – Irish-trained horses have won 10 of the last 11 editions
geegeez.co.uk – so UK contenders often drift in the market. A clear betting pattern is that an unbeaten hurdler from Ireland will attract heavy support. In fact, 7 of the last 11 winners arrived undefeated over hurdles
geegeez.co.uk, boosting punter confidence. Major market movers in this race tend to be well-regarded novices who won a key prep (for example, Impaire Et Passe was strongly backed into 5/2 second-favorite in 2023 after an impressive Dublin Festival win). It’s also common to see late money for Willie Mullins’s runners; Mullins often runs multiple horses, and whichever Paul Townend rides usually starts favorite or second-favorite (as happened in 2023 and 2024). Bookmakers often shorten Mullins’s first string on the day, given his record – and indeed his horses finished 1–2–3–4–5 in 2024
racingbetter.co.uk, a remarkable clean sweep that hammered the bookies.
Notable Patterns: A strong profile has emerged for Ballymore winners. They tend to be Irish-bred geldings with a bumper background – 24 of the last 26 winners were National Hunt-bred (not ex-flat) and many had won a bumper
geegeez.co.uk. An impressive 25 of the last 30 winners had won a bumper race earlier in their career
geegeez.co.uk, highlighting the value of that foundation. Most winners also won their previous start (29 of the last 30 finished 1st or 2nd last time out)
geegeez.co.uk, so coming in with strong form is almost essential. In terms of prep races, key Irish trials have been a good pointer – for instance, 8 of the last 12 winners had won on their previous start (often in a Grade 1 or 2 novice hurdle)
thewinnersenclosure.com. The Deloitte (Dublin Racing Festival 2m6f novice) or Lawlor’s of Naas have produced several Ballymore champions. Additionally, horses rated 150+ on official ratings have a great record
geegeez.co.uk, underscoring that it usually takes a high-class performance to win. Finally, it’s worth noting breeding: French-breds occasionally win (e.g. Yorkhill in 2016, by Presenting), but Irish-bred horses have taken 15 of the last 22 runnings
geegeez.co.uk. All recent winners had plenty of stamina in their pedigree. Many also had the experience of an Irish point-to-point – 9 of the last 14 winners had won a point in Ireland before switching to hurdles
geegeez.co.uk, a sign of latent staying power. In summary, the “trends horse” for the Ballymore is a 5–6 year old Irish-trained gelding, top-4 in the betting, unbeaten (or highly accomplished) over hurdles, a last-time-out winner, with a bumper or point win on his résumé, and often representing Willie Mullins (or occasionally another Irish powerhouse). Favorites do well, outsiders struggle – a pattern that looks set to continue in 2025.
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (3m Grade 1) – 2:00pm
Past Winners: Formerly the RSA Chase, this 3-mile novice championship has a rich history of producing future Gold Cup horses. Seven-year-olds have dominated lately – each of the last four winners was age 7
thewinnersenclosure.com. In fact, since 2013, 9 of the 12 winners were 7-year-olds
thewinnersenclosure.com. The recent roll of honor reflects this trend along with the preponderance of Irish-trained talent:
- 2024 – Fact To File (7), Trainer: Willie Mullins, Jockey: Mark Walsh, SP 8/13 Favgeegeez.co.ukgeegeez.co.uk
- 2023 – The Real Whacker (7), Trainer: Patrick Neville, Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies, SP 8/1thewinnersenclosure.com
- 2022 – L’Homme Presse (7), Trainer: Venetia Williams, Jockey: Charlie Deutsch, SP ~9/4 (Fav)en.wikipedia.org
- 2021 – Monkfish (7), Trainer: Willie Mullins, Jockey: Paul Townend, SP 1/4 Favolbg.com
- 2020 – Champ (8), Trainer: Nicky Henderson, Jockey: Barry Geraghty, SP 4/1en.wikipedia.org
All five of those winners were geldings carrying 11-4 (the standard for novices). Note that four started as the favorite or joint-favorite, and the only “upset” was The Real Whacker at 8/1 – notably, 8/1 is the biggest SP of any winner since 2015
thewinnersenclosure.com. This underscores that the market is a good guide in the Brown Advisory. Mullins has won two of the last four (Monkfish and Fact To File), and the Irish have taken 8 of the last 16 editions
geegeez.co.uk, though top British yards also have a strong record here.
Trainer/Jockey Performance: Willie Mullins is the leading trainer in recent renewals – he’s won this race 6 times in the last ~20 years, including with stars like Don Poli (2015), Monkfish (2021), and this past year’s favorite Fact To File
thewinnersenclosure.com. Mullins’ success has often come with horses that were also top hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are also key players: between them Henderson and Nicholls have 11 wins since 1990 and 4 in the last decade
geegeez.co.uk (Henderson’s recent winners include Might Bite 2017 and Champ 2020, while Nicholls won with Topofthegame in 2019 and has four wins overall since 1999). It’s telling that Henderson, Mullins or Nicholls trained 12 of the last 21 winners
geegeez.co.uk – their runners demand respect. On the jockey front, Paul Townend has partnered two of the last four winners (Monkfish and 2022 runner-up Gaillard du Mesnil in a later rerouted race), and legendary jockey Ruby Walsh won this three times in his career. In 2024, Mark Walsh gave Fact To File a confident ride to justify odds-on favoritism
geegeez.co.uk. Sam Twiston-Davies’ enterprising front-running ride on The Real Whacker in 2023 was a masterclass in pace judgment. Generally, top stable jockeys (Townend, Nico de Boinville for Henderson, etc.) get the leg up on the fancied horses and have delivered. One notable stat: every winning rider since 2013 had already won or would go on to win other Festival Grade 1’s, reflecting the quality of jockey needed for this test.
Impact of Pace: The Brown Advisory is a stamina test for novice chasers, often run at an honest gallop. With around a dozen runners typically, the pace is usually genuine but not chaotic. Horses that race prominently or in a handy position have done well – it’s tough to make up a lot of ground late in a 3m chase on Cheltenham’s Old Course. For example, The Real Whacker (2023) made virtually all the running and outstayed his rivals in a thrilling finish, showing that a bold-jumping front-runner can succeed
thewinnersenclosure.com. Likewise, Might Bite (2017) set a strong pace and was clear before a last-fence fall/slither (he remounted to win narrowly), illustrating how aggressive tactics can nearly blow the field away. However, an overly hot pace can set it up for closers with stamina: Champ (2020) came from well off the pace to nab two tired leaders in the final strides, a rare come-from-behind win that year
en.wikipedia.org. In general, being close to the pace turning for home is advantageous – many winners track the leaders and strike between the last two fences. The Old Course’s relatively short run-in (after the last fence) favors horses who kick for home early. We often see the winning move on the long bend into the straight. Monkfish (2021), for instance, sat second, then asserted going to the last, never allowing the pack to swamp him. Overall, a well-judged ride conserving enough for the hill is crucial. Front-runners can and do win if they settle into a rhythm (The Real Whacker, Might Bite), but a novice that tears off too fast risks emptying out. Connections often instruct jockeys to ensure their horse can see its fences (to avoid novice mistakes), so pace is usually honest. Notably, all winners since 1997 had made their chase debut before New Year
geegeez.co.uk – early-season experience – so by the Festival they can handle a strongly run race. Expect 2025 to follow suit: a true run race where the classiest jumper who travels well on the pace will prevail.
Ground Conditions: This race can be influenced by ground, as 3 miles on soft vs good can produce different tests, but class still shines through. Historically, extremes of going have occasionally led to shock results (e.g. on very soft ground in 1998 a 25/1 shot won, or on unusually quick ground some speedy types have prevailed). In recent years, though, ground variance hasn’t drastically altered the outcome: winners have scored on soft (L’Homme Presse 2022 on soft-heavy) and on good-to-soft (Presenting Percy 2018, Topofthegame 2019). The last two runnings (2022 and 2023) were on soft-heavy ground, and the winners (L’Homme Presse and The Real Whacker) were proven mudlarks who relished testing conditions. In 2024, Fact To File won on soft (heavy in places) going as the odds-on favorite, showing proven ability in deep ground
geegeez.co.uk. When the ground is soft, stamina is paramount – we tend to see bigger winning margins as some novices can’t see out the trip. L’Homme Presse (2022) galloped his rivals into the ground by 3½ lengths on soft. On the flip side, on good or good-to-soft, the race can be tighter, with speedier stayers coming into it – e.g. Champ won in a sprint finish on good-to-soft. Overall, all recent winners handled soft well, and none had a known ground aversion. If anything, French-bred horses (often seen as soft-ground lovers) have started to prosper: French-breds took 2022 and 2024
geegeez.co.uk. (Historically, French-breds had a poor record – just 2 wins in 44 runners over 17 years – but that has been overturned by L’Homme Presse and Fact To File’s wins)
geegeez.co.uk. So the old bias against French-bred “summer ground” horses is fading. In summary, expect the race to produce the right result regardless of conditions – connections won’t run if the ground doesn’t suit, and the field typically all act on soft or good. Monitor the weather, though: if 2025 is very soft, it might favor an out-and-out stayer and could blunt the speed of some favorites, potentially making an upset slightly more likely. Conversely, decent ground means every horse’s jumping pace is tested.
Key Betting Trends: The Brown Advisory is a race where the market is often correct. According to trends, 9 of the last 10 winners were from the top 3 in the betting
geegeez.co.uk. In fact, six favorites have won since 2013, including three of the last four renewals (Monkfish, L’Homme Presse, Fact To File)
geegeez.co.uk. When a clear standout novice emerges in the season, punters pile on: Monkfish went off 1/4 and duly obliged, and in 2024 Fact To File was hammered down to 8/13 on the day and won comfortably. That said, this race isn’t immune to upsets – The Real Whacker (2023) was relatively unfancied at 8/1 and caught many off guard by beating the Irish hotpots. But such surprises are infrequent: as noted, only one winner bigger than 8/1 in the past decade
thewinnersenclosure.com. The average SP of winners over the last 15 years is around 7/2. Bettors tend to focus on proven Grade 1 form – 17 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Grade 1 or 2 chase earlier in the season
geegeez.co.uk, so any horse lacking top-level form is usually overlooked in the market. Another angle: novices with a strong hurdles reputation (e.g. former Albert Bartlett runners) attract support. Indeed, 6 of the last 15 winners ran in the previous season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival
geegeez.co.uk – punters remember that experience. The top-rated novices in the field also do well: each of the last 8 winners was rated 153+ going in
thewinnersenclosure.com, and betting tends to correlate with ratings. We also see Irish-trained favorites often dominate the market, but note that the home team (Brits) can be value – five of the last nine winners were UK-trained, sometimes at decent odds (e.g. 4/1 Champ, 8/1 The Real Whacker). In 2025, expect the market to heavily favor a standout Irish novice (if one emerges), but savvy bettors will respect any strong Henderson or Nicholls runner, even if second or third in betting – those yards have a knack in this race. Finally, one trend punters may heed: “unbeaten” hype vs experience. Surprisingly, only 3 of the last 25 winners were unbeaten over fences going into the race (most had at least one defeat)
geegeez.co.uk. This suggests a flashy perfect record isn’t a necessity; a novice that has tasted defeat and learned from it can still win. Bettors might slightly oppose an untested novice if the price is skinny. In general, though, the Brown Advisory sees few wild gambles – money tends to follow the obvious form, and more often than not, that approach pays off.
Notable Patterns: Successful Brown Advisory horses follow a fairly consistent profile. They usually had just one season over hurdles before going chasing – 26 of the last 30 winners were novice hurdlers the previous season (not longtime hurdlers)
geegeez.co.uk. They also typically have 3–5 chase starts prior to Cheltenham; in fact, 22 of the last 24 winners had run 3–5 times over fences
geegeez.co.uk – enough experience to be seasoned, but not over-raced. This race rewards sound jumpers: many winners made no more than 1 mistake in the race, and a clear round is often crucial. Cheltenham course experience is a big plus – all but one winner since 2013 had a previous run at Cheltenham (7 of those even had a win at Cheltenham)
thewinnersenclosure.com. Indeed, several winners ran in the previous year’s Festival (often in a novice hurdle or the Festival bumper)
thewinnersenclosure.com. Another pattern: winners often come via notable prep races. The Ladbrokes (Flogas) Novice Chase at Leopardstown in February is a key trial – it has produced 3 winners since 2012
thewinnersenclosure.com. Also the Dipper Novices’ Chase (Cheltenham on New Year’s Day) yielded a couple of winners (though that race was removed from the schedule in 2023/24)
thewinnersenclosure.com. Fitness is important too: 56 of the last 58 winners ran in the same calendar year (Jan/Feb) before Cheltenham
geegeez.co.uk, so avoid horses coming off long layoffs. Additionally, an interesting nugget: novices beaten on their chase debut have done well – 8 of the last 15 winners lost their first chase start before improving
geegeez.co.uk, indicating that immediate perfection isn’t required. In terms of breeding, as mentioned, Irish-breds dominate (22 of last 28 winners)
geegeez.co.uk, but French-breds are now making inroads with recent successes. From a ratings perspective, the last 10 winners were all rated 150 or higher
geegeez.co.uk, emphasizing quality. And success tends to come early in a chasing career – no winner since 1992 was older than 8
geegeez.co.uk, and winners aged 5 or even 6 are rare (just four younger than 7 since 1978)
geegeez.co.uk. Put simply, the ideal Brown Advisory winner is a 7-year-old second-season chaser, rated 150+, who likely won or went close in a Grade 1 novice chase, ran within the past 6–8 weeks, has previous Cheltenham experience, and is trained by an elite Festival trainer. Bettors and trends analysts will be looking for exactly that profile among the 2025 contenders.
Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle 2m5f Grade 3) – 2:40pm
Past Winners: The Coral Cup is known for its large, ultra-competitive fields and surprise results. It has produced some big-priced winners and is regarded as a punter’s nightmare. A look at the recent winners illustrates the unpredictability:
- 2024 – Langer Dan (8yo) – Trainer: Dan Skelton, Jockey: Harry Skelton, SP 13/2cheltenhamfestival.fans (joint-favorite)
- 2023 – Seddon (10yo) – Trainer: John McConnell, Jockey: Ben Harvey, SP 20/1 (approx.)
- 2022 – Commander of Fleet (7yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Shane Fitzgerald, SP 50/1
- 2021 – Heaven Help Us (7yo) – Trainer: Paul Hennessy, Jockey: Richie Condon, SP 33/1
- 2020 – Dame De Compagnie (7yo) – Trainer: Nicky Henderson, Jockey: Barry Geraghty, SP 5/1 Fav
It’s immediately clear that outsiders often thrive in this race. In the last five renewals, three winners started at 20/1 or higher, including two huge shocks: Commander of Fleet at 50-1 in 2022 and Heaven Help Us at 33-1 in 2021. The average SP of the past 10 winners is around 18/1, reflecting how open this handicap is. That said, we do occasionally see a well-fancied horse win – notably Dame De Compagnie (2020) was the only winning favorite in the past 21 years
geegeez.co.uk, obliging for owner J.P. McManus. Still, upsets are more common than not. Winners’ ages have ranged from 5 to 10; most are second-season hurdlers aged 6 or 7 (15 of the last 25 winners were age 6 or 7)
geegeez.co.uk. It’s worth noting many recent winners have been Irish-trained despite the race often having more British runners: Irish yards have won 4 of the last 7 (including big-priced strikes by McConnell and Elliott). The Skelton brothers have taken the last two editions (Langer Dan 2024, and they also trained West Brom in 2022 who placed)
geegeez.co.uk, marking Dan Skelton as a trainer to watch in this race. Nicky Henderson has a good Coral Cup record historically (4 wins, though his last was 2010), and Gordon Elliott has also won 3 since 2010
geegeez.co.uk. Overall, the Coral Cup’s recent winners underscore that experience and a touch of class help, but it often pays to expect the unexpected.
Trainer/Jockey Performance: A few trainers have figured out the Coral Cup puzzle better than others. Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson stand out with three wins each since 2006
geegeez.co.uk. Elliott’s wins (2016 with Diamond King, 2018 with Bleu Berry, 2022 with Commander of Fleet) show his skill in targeting this race, often with horses carrying low weights. Henderson’s wins came a bit earlier (2000s), but he added one in 2010 and also trained the well-backed 2020 winner. In recent years, Dan Skelton has emerged as a Coral Cup specialist – he trained Langer Dan (2024) and Protektorat (2019) was 3rd, plus Langerdan was narrowly beaten in 2022 Martin Pipe (a similar handicap), showing Skelton’s knack with these handicappers. It’s telling that Skelton has won the last two Coral Cups (2023 and 2024)
geegeez.co.uk, making him the first back-to-back winner trainer since the race’s inception. Willie Mullins, interestingly, has a relatively poor record in the Coral Cup – despite his dominance at the Festival, Mullins has only won this race once (2018 with Bleu Berry) and generally his runners underperform their market prices (53 runners, only 1 win and 1 second)
geegeez.co.uk. This suggests Mullins often uses the Coral Cup for second-string horses or that his style is less suited to this big-field handicap chaos. J.P. McManus-owned horses warrant respect – J.P. targets Festival handicaps and has owned multiple Coral Cup winners (including two since 2012). On the jockey side, because many winners are lower-profile horses, we often see claiming jockeys or lesser-known riders grab the glory (Richie Condon on Heaven Help Us, Ben Harvey on Seddon were amateur/claimers). However, top jockeys have also won (Barry Geraghty for McManus in 2020, and Harry Skelton in 2024). Notably, Harry Skelton’s two wins (on Roksana in 2019 and Langer Dan in 2024) tie him for the most Coral Cup wins by a current jockey. The race’s competitive nature means no single jockey dominates – in the last 15 years, no rider has won it more than twice. Experience at Cheltenham helps: 12 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
geegeez.co.uk (often in the Supreme or Martin Pipe previously), so trainers often bring back horses that have seen Cheltenham’s unique test. The combination of a savvy trainer (often British-based or Elliott) and a well-judged ride (sometimes by a claiming jockey to get a weight allowance) is a recurring theme.
Impact of Pace: The Coral Cup is typically run at a furious pace from the start. With a maximum field (usually around 26 runners) charging over 2m5f, the early fractions are often strong. This relentless pace often leads to race collapse in the final furlong, allowing horses ridden patiently to storm through tired rivals. For example, Heaven Help Us (2021) bucked the trend by actually making all the running – an extremely rare wire-to-wire victory – she built up a big lead and kept finding, catching the field napping. But in most years, front-runners struggle to hang on: in 2022, several prominent racers faded and a hold-up horse (Commander of Fleet, who was near the back early) grabbed the win in a blanket finish. The typical winning style in the Coral Cup is a horse that settles in mid-pack or worse, then creeps into contention late. Langer Dan (2024), for instance, was held up off the strong pace and produced a well-timed challenge after the last, nailing the leaders in the run-in
cheltenhamfestival.fans. This is common – horses that expend energy too soon often have nothing left up the hill, while those ridden with restraint can pass dozens of rivals in the closing stages. Seddon (2023) was given a patient ride and arrived late to win, as was Bleu Berry (2018) who came from well back. Given the big field, traffic and luck in running are huge factors. Jockeys on hold-up horses need gaps to open; conversely, a front-runner needs exceptional fractions to succeed. Generally, the fast early pace turns the race into a test of stamina at the trip – effectively like a 3-mile race by the finish. Horses that truly stay 2½ miles (or further) have an edge when the pace is hot. Indeed, many Coral Cup winners later prove effective at 3 miles (Heaven Help Us went on to run in staying hurdles; Langer Dan had been runner-up in a 2¾m race prior). In terms of course profile, the race is on Cheltenham’s Old Course, which has a shorter run-in and can sometimes favor front-end tactics. But the sheer number of runners ensures an end-to-end gallop that typically sets up for closers on the final hill. Also, given the hustle, mistakes at hurdles can be costly – a clear round is needed to maintain position. The bottom line: expect a strong pace and watch for the horses creeping into contention late – they often prevail.
Ground Conditions: Because the Coral Cup fields are so large, the ground can get churned and testing, but ground impact is hard to predict. The race has seen winners on all types of going. On soft/heavy ground, stamina is even more emphasized, and we’ve seen some massive shocks in muddy conditions (Commander of Fleet’s 50/1 win in 2022 came on rain-softened ground where many fancied horses didn’t fire). When the ground is softer, lower-weighted outsiders who handle mud can outrun classier types lugging big weights. For instance, in 2019 on soft ground, 28/1 shot William Henry carried a big weight to win, with several well-fancied horses floundering late. In contrast, on good to soft or better, horses with a touch more speed (and class) can carry higher weights to victory – e.g. Dame De Compagnie won on good-to-soft in 2020 off a mark of 140+, showing a nice turn of foot. The prevailing trend is that ground that allows a strong pace (anything from good to soft) will produce a test of both speed and stamina. If it comes up genuinely good ground, the race might favor slightly speedier types and we could see a closer finish with fewer longshots (though truly good ground is rare by Wednesday at Cheltenham). If it’s soft, expect exhaustion to set in for many – the margins might be larger and an unfancied dour stayer could spring an upset. Statistically, however, ground hasn’t prevented longshots from winning – whether soft or good, outsiders have scored. It’s more about the pace and handicap marks. One pattern: French-bred horses (often thought to like soft) have done reasonably well – 10 of the last 23 winners were French-bred
geegeez.co.uk – but Irish/UK-breds have won plenty too. Regardless of conditions, no horse older than 9 has won in the last 28 runnings (and horses aged 10+ rarely even place)
geegeez.co.uk, which may partly be because very old horses struggle when the ground is testing. In summary, ground conditions add another layer of uncertainty to an already unpredictable race, but they don’t dramatically alter the profile: the Coral Cup will be run hard on any surface. Perhaps the only ground-dependent angle: on very soft ground, look for proven mud lovers at low weights, and on quicker ground, classier horses with a turn of foot come into play. But the safest expectation is still that a well-handicapped, strong-traveling horse (whatever its odds) will emerge from the pack in the final strides.
Key Betting Trends: The Coral Cup is notoriously difficult for punters. Only 1 favorite has won in the last 21 years (Henderson’s Dame De Compagnie in 2020)
geegeez.co.uk. This stat alone warns bettors to be cautious with short-priced horses. In fact, many favorites in this race fail to make the frame. Big gambles are common – for example, Willie Mullins’ horses often get backed (even though his record is poor here), and J.P. McManus often has a well-fancied runner – but these gambles frequently falter under the stiff task. Instead, the each-way outsiders are the ones rewarding backers. According to trends, 11 of the last 16 winners were not last-time-out winners
geegeez.co.uk (implying that horses coming off a defeat at decent odds can improve). Additionally, only 6 winners since 2000 had run 10 or more times over hurdles
geegeez.co.uk – meaning lightly raced improvers are favored by the stats, which the market sometimes overlooks in favor of more exposed “good things.” Bettors should note that many winners come from the middle of the weights: 11 of the last 16 winners were rated in the 140s
geegeez.co.uk (i.e. high-class handicappers, not the absolute topweights but not low-rated longshots either). The weight range of winners is often around 10-12 stone; interestingly 8 of the last 11 winners carried 11st or more
geegeez.co.uk, so higher weights can win despite the slog. Market movers on the day tend to be Irish-trained horses and those owned by JP McManus. JP has a strong Coral Cup record (multiple wins and places), so his entries (often in his green-and-gold silks) get backed – e.g. Birchdale was punted in 2022 but only placed; Camprond was heavily backed favorite in 2022 and finished 4th. These plunges don’t always win but often run well. Another angle: because novices and second-season hurdlers do well, sometimes a novice with only a few hurdle runs sneaks in under the radar – bettors savvy to that trend got big prices on winners like Supasundae (16/1 in 2017 as a novice) and Heaven Help Us (33/1, technically not novice but lightly raced mare). Late money in this race can be telling: in 2024, Langer Dan was backed into 13/2 joint-fav by the off (from double digits weeks earlier) on the strength of his Festival form and a nice prep run. He duly won
cheltenhamfestival.fans. So, while favorites struggle historically, intelligent support on the day for a well-handicapped horse with course form is worth noting. Conversely, horses carrying very big weights (top weights rated 150+) are often opposable – only a couple have won from such marks (e.g. 2019 winner was rated 151)
geegeez.co.uk. Finally, bettors often use the Coral Cup as a “jackpot race” in Placepot or exotics, given the high odds payoffs. The trend of outsiders means huge Placepot dividends when a Coral Cup longshot hits the frame. In short, expect the unexpected – many shrewd punters either spread bets widely or take a chance on a longshot they fancy, rather than lumping on the favorite.
Notable Patterns: A number of statistical patterns emerge from Coral Cup history: Successful horses tend to be lightly raced over hurdles (as noted, 18 of the last 24 winners had <10 hurdle starts)
geegeez.co.uk. They’re often second-season hurdlers – 12 of the last 20 winners were in their second campaign over hurdles
geegeez.co.uk, meaning they likely showed promise as novices and then improved in handicaps. Experience at Cheltenham and the Festival is a plus: 12 of the last 15 winners had run at a Festival before (and 10 had at least a top-4 finish here)
geegeez.co.uk. That suggests course form and the ability to handle the Cheltenham atmosphere/track is important. Indeed, horses that ran in the previous year’s Coral Cup or other Festival races often come back to do well – 11 of the last 15 winners ran at a previous Festival
geegeez.co.uk, and four of the last 12 winners ran in the Coral Cup the year prior (showing that even after losing once, they learned and won next time). Another pattern: a small break before the race helps – 17 of the last 20 winners had not run in the past month (i.e. last run at least 32 days prior)
geegeez.co.uk, so freshness counts in a grueling handicap. Additionally, horses with 4 or fewer runs in the current season account for 14 of the last 16 winners
geegeez.co.uk – they’re not over-campaigned. When it comes to ratings, as mentioned, a “sweet spot” is evident: 11 of the last 14 winners were rated 138–147
geegeez.co.uk, so those mid-range weights often hide the best handicapped horses. Horses rated 150+ have a modest overall record (though not impossible – 2019’s 151-rated winner broke that mold)
geegeez.co.uk. Age trends show almost all winners are aged 5–9; horses aged 10 or above have only 3 wins from the last 29 runnings (and virtually never even place)
geegeez.co.uk. So younger legs tend to prevail – particularly ages 6, 7, or 8 (those ages collectively have won the majority of Coral Cups). A noteworthy quirk: headgear can be a positive – 4 of the last 6 winners wore some form of headgear (cheekpieces, blinkers, etc.)
geegeez.co.uk, possibly aiding focus in the big field. And finally, JP McManus’s silks: his owned horses have won multiple times and often place, so having a McManus runner in the top 5 is common (in 2023, he had the 2nd and 3rd). To summarize, the ideal Coral Cup winner’s profile is a 6-7 year old second-season hurdler, officially rated around 140–147, who didn’t win last time out but has shown high-class form in defeat, is coming off a short freshening break (5–8 weeks), has previous Cheltenham experience, possibly carries headgear or a low weight, and is lurking in the betting at an each-way price. Those are the horses that often spring surprises in this most unpredictable of Festival races.
Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m Grade 1) – 4:00pm
Past Winners: The Champion Chase is Wednesday’s feature, a showcase for elite two-mile chasers. Its recent winners include some modern greats and also a few upsets. A snapshot of the last five renewals:
| Year | Winner (Age) | Trainer (Country) | Jockey | SP (Fav?) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Captain Guinness (9) | Henry de Bromhead (IRE)thejockeyclub.co.ukthejockeyclub.co.uk | Rachael Blackmorecheltenhamfestival.fans | 17/2 (3rd fav)cheltenhamfestival.fans |
| 2023 | Energumene (9) | Willie Mullins (IRE)thejockeyclub.co.uk | Paul Townend | 6/5 (Fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2022 | Energumene (8) | Willie Mullins (IRE)thejockeyclub.co.uk | Paul Townend | 5/2 (2nd fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2021 | Put The Kettle On (7) | Henry de Bromhead (IRE)thejockeyclub.co.uk | Aidan Coleman | 17/2 (3rd fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
| 2020 | Politologue (9) | Paul Nicholls (GB)thejockeyclub.co.uk | Harry Skelton | 6/1 (2nd fav)racingbetter.co.uk |
<small>Table: Recent Queen Mother Champion Chase winners and profiles
racingbetter.co.uk.</small>
These results highlight several points. First, no horse has dominated year after year recently – although Energumene won back-to-back in 2022 and 2023
racingbetter.co.uk, before him the last repeat winner was Altior (2018–19). The ages of winners are typically in the 7–9 range (30 of the last 38 winners have been age 7–9)
geegeez.co.uk. Indeed, in the past decade, every winner was 7 to 9 years old except Sprinter Sacre who was 10 for his fairy-tale comeback in 2016. Trainers: Irish trainers have made big inroads recently – Henry de Bromhead (Put The Kettle On 2021, Captain Guinness 2024) and Willie Mullins (Energumene 2022, 2023) have taken four of the last five for Ireland
thejockeyclub.co.uk. This reversed the previous trend where British yards (Henderson, Nicholls) dominated. Nicky Henderson still holds the all-time record (he’s won 6 Champion Chases, most recently Altior 2018–19), and Paul Nicholls has won 6 as well (most recently Politologue 2020)
thejockeyclub.co.uk. Jockey-wise, Paul Townend notched two wins with Energumene, Nico de Boinville won twice on Altior, and in 2024 Rachael Blackmore became the first woman to win the Champion Chase (on Captain Guinness). It’s a race often associated with top jockeys: prior to Townend’s wins, Barry Geraghty had 5 victories (tying the record), and Ruby Walsh had 3. One notable piece of history: until Energumene, Mullins had never won a Champion Chase – now he has two
geegeez.co.uk. The recent winners also show that favorites don’t always win: Energumene was favored in 2023 and obliged, but in 2021 and 2024 the winners were 17/2 shots, and even Altior’s second win in 2019 came as a very short 4/11 favorite. This variability in outcomes often depends on the presence (or absence) of a true superstar. In years with a prime Sprinter Sacre, Altior, or Master Minded, the favorite romped home. In more open years, upsets occur – e.g. Politologue (6/1) in 2020 when Altior was a late scratch, Special Tiara (11/1) in 2017 when hotpot Douvan faltered. The roll of honour since 2014 includes legendary names like Sprinter Sacre (2016) and Altior (2018, 2019), but also surprise winners like Dodging Bullets (2015 at 9/2) and Newmill (2006 at 16/1 further back)
racingbetter.co.uk. Generally, class tells – most winners have at least one previous Grade 1 win and often are Arkle Trophy graduates (7 of the last 14 Arkle winners to run in the Champion Chase the next year have won it)
geegeez.co.uk. For instance, Put The Kettle On won the 2020 Arkle and then won this in 2021
racingbetter.co.uk. However, 2024’s winner Captain Guinness had never won a Grade 1 before – a mild surprise in that regard (he had multiple Grade 1 placings). Overall, the recent pattern is a mix of expected and unexpected: when there is a standout (like Energumene or Altior), they tend to deliver, but when the field is open, it can yield a somewhat unexpected result.
Trainer/Jockey Performance: As alluded, Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are the all-time leading trainers in this race (with 6 wins each)
thejockeyclub.co.uk. In the 21st century Henderson has been especially prominent, winning 5 Champion Chases between 2001 and 2019 (Moscow Flyer twice, Sprinter Sacre twice, Altior twice – Altior’s two make six total for Hendo)
thejockeyclub.co.uk. Paul Nicholls’ wins largely came in the mid-2000s (he trained the great Master Minded in 2008–09, Call Equiname 1999, Dodging Bullets 2015, Politologue 2020 etc.). Henderson and Nicholls collectively took 11 of the 25 renewals from 1995 to 2019
geegeez.co.uk. However, the Irish have surged recently: Henry de Bromhead has won 2 of the last 7 (Special Tiara 2017 and Put The Kettle On 2021), and Willie Mullins finally broke his duck in 2022 and promptly doubled up in 2023
geegeez.co.uk. It’s interesting that Mullins – despite his Festival dominance – only has those 2 Champion Chase wins; his prior high-profile attempts often fell short (e.g. Un de Sceaux 2016 was 2nd, Douvan 2017 injured, Chacun Pour Soi 3rd in 2021). Among jockeys, until recently Barry Geraghty held the modern record with 5 wins (including 3 on Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre) – he retired in 2020. Now, Nico de Boinville has quietly built an impressive record: he has 3 Champion Chase wins (Sprinter 2016, Altior 2018 & 2019) making him the leading active jockey in the race. Paul Townend’s back-to-back wins on Energumene put him at 2. Ruby Walsh had 3 (2004 Azertyuiop, 2008–09 Master Minded). The Champion Chase often falls to the stable’s #1 rider: e.g. Townend for Mullins, de Boinville for Henderson, Blackmore for de Bromhead. One notable jockey stat: Rachael Blackmore’s 2024 win was a milestone, and she also had placed on Envoi Allen in 2022 (3rd). Another pattern: the race has been kind to horses (and thus jockeys) who return – 14 horses in history have won it more than once
geegeez.co.uk (recently Altior, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded all repeated). This means jockeys also repeat – e.g. Paul Townend could join that club if Energumene had returned again (he didn’t in 2024 due to injury). Also, trainers often target this race with the same horse: de Bromhead notably won in 2021 with a mare (Put The Kettle On) – the first mare ever to win the Champion Chase
geegeez.co.uk – showing his skill at peaking horses for Cheltenham. When it comes to British vs Irish, historically UK trainers dominated, but since 2021 the Irish have won every running (de Bromhead, Mullins, de Bromhead, Mullins, and again de Bromhead in 2024), signaling a possible power shift. Looking at 2025, Henderson and Nicholls will be keen to wrest it back.
Impact of Pace: The Champion Chase is invariably a flat-out gallop over 2 miles – it’s known as one of the fastest, most intense races of the week. With only 13 fences and horses of this caliber, mistakes can happen under speed pressure. Typically, there are a couple of trailblazers each year that set a searching pace. For example, historically Special Tiara was a renowned front-runner and his bold jumping from the front won him the race in 2017. In 2022, Shishkin and Energumene went hammer-and-tongs from the start in heavy ground, contributing to Shishkin fading and Energumene (who took over after halfway) winning
geegeez.co.uk. Generally, a strong pace is guaranteed, which often exposes any chinks in a horse’s jumping. Horses that can travel and jump at speed are the ones to be on. We’ve seen that a sustained fast pace can sometimes set the race up for a horse coming from just off the lead. Sprinter Sacre (2016) was held up in about 5th early, benefited from a strong pace set by Special Tiara, and swept through late to complete his fairytale comeback. Similarly, Altior (2018) sat behind the leaders and pounced after the last when Politologue (who made much of the running) began to tire. However, if a front-runner is high-class and jumps accurately, they can run the finish out of others – as Special Tiara did in 2017 (made all on good ground) and as Energumene effectively did in 2023 (he led or disputed most of the way in very soft ground and had all his rivals in trouble by the home turn)
totalhorse.co.uk. The Old Course for 2m favors a fluent jumper: the fences come in quick succession down the back, and any mistake at pace can be costly. We often see a line of 2-3 horses still in contention at the second-last, then the fastest jumper at the last and strongest finisher up the hill will prevail. In terms of position, being in the front rank or not far off is ideal; it’s difficult to win a Champion Chase coming from way behind because the leaders are going so quick (you can’t give too much start). Indeed, many winners race prominently or in mid-pack – few are held up stone last. Also, with such high cruising speeds, it’s not uncommon for the field to string out – weaker horses are off the bridle early. Essentially, the Champion Chase is about sustaining top speed and precision jumping for ~3m 50s (the standard winning time is around 3m 45s on good ground – the record is 3m 44.7s by Edredon Bleu
racingbetter.co.uk). Conditions can tweak the pace scenario: on very soft ground (as in 2022), the race becomes attritional and can turn into a test of who copes with the ground – that day the early duel saw both principals tire, but Energumene outstayed others. On good ground, times are lightning fast and slightest errors are punished – e.g. Politologue capitalized on others’ mistakes in 2020. Summing up, expect a truly run race with the “cream rising to the top” – there are “no hiding places” at Champion Chase pace
thejockeyclub.co.uk. A horse must travel and jump smoothly; any that are outpaced will struggle to catch up. It’s a spectacle of controlled speed, and tactically, jockeys often want to be handy and avoid traffic, then produce a turn of foot from the last fence. Given the class of recent winners, the race often effectively ends by the second-last when the star kicks on (Altior and Energumene both put daylight between themselves and the field before the last in their wins).
Ground Conditions: Ground can significantly affect the Champion Chase, especially because 2-mile chasers are sensitive to footing for their jumping rhythm. On good or good-to-soft ground, times are fast and the race tends to favor the quickest horse. On soft or heavy, it becomes more of a stamina test at the trip and can produce upsets if a top speed horse doesn’t handle it. A prime example is 2022: the ground was officially heavy/soft and the odds-on favorite Shishkin struggled badly, losing his rhythm and being pulled up, while Energumene (proven on soft) won comfortably
geegeez.co.uk. In 2023, conditions were again testing (soft), but Energumene – who relishes soft – won by a wide margin as favorite
racingbetter.co.uk, confirming how important handling the ground is. Conversely, in 2019 the ground was good to soft and Altior, an outright superstar, won at 4/11 but not without a fight (he hit a flat spot, perhaps the firmer ground not his absolute preference but his class carried him). On genuinely good ground, front-runners can be dangerous because it’s easier to jump at speed – Special Tiara’s 2017 win on good (at 11/1) was partly attributed to him loving the fast ground and others (like Fox Norton) not able to peg him back. Historically, most multiple winners handle varied ground (Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Altior could win on soft or good). The stat shows 41 of the last 43 winners went off 10/1 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk, suggesting that regardless of ground, surprises above that price are very rare – the two exceptions in 40 years were 2017 and 2024, both on good ground with front-running upsets. This implies that on softer ground the favorite or top 3 in betting almost always win, whereas on good ground a third-tier contender can sometimes hang on. Indeed, 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
geegeez.co.uk, again underscoring that even though upsets happen, it’s usually one of the leading fancies that wins – especially if they’re proven on the day’s ground. It’s also noted that horses who hadn’t run that calendar year have a poor record
geegeez.co.uk – meaning if ground is unusual, those without a prep on similar going might be disadvantaged. For 2025, if the ground is soft, lean towards those with soft-ground form (e.g. Energumene thrived in mud, whereas others like Nube Negra historically prefer it quicker). If it’s good, a fast-jumping longshot can get brave. But either way, class usually wins out: only two winners in the last 40 years started above 11/1
geegeez.co.uk, reflecting that the truly top-tier horses handle whatever ground and still win, whereas lesser ones need things in their favor (like perfect ground or pace). One should also mention that Put The Kettle On’s 2021 win came on officially good ground – she loved Cheltenham’s spring surface and was a course specialist – whereas Chacun Pour Soi, the favorite, perhaps didn’t let himself down on it as well. So ground can level the playing field somewhat. In short, ground conditions in the Champion Chase can tilt the balance between closely matched rivals: soft can bring stamina into play and potentially unsettle a slick traveler, while good ground emphasizes pure speed and jumping precision. But a true champion (think Sprinter Sacre or Energumene) will usually dominate regardless.
Key Betting Trends: Historically, the Champion Chase has been a favorites’ race when a superstar is around, but overall the record of favorites is mixed due to some high-profile blowouts. According to trends, 17 of the last 25 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk – which indicates that the market leader or one of the top few in betting usually wins. Indeed, from 2016 through 2019, the favorite won each year (Sprinter Sacre was 5/1 second-fav in 2016 but was the sentimental “people’s favorite”; Douvan 2017 was an exception as fav but got injured; Altior won at 1/5 in 2018 and 4/11 in 2019). However, the period around that saw some notable upsets: 2015 Dodging Bullets at 9/2 (with odds-on Sprinter off form), 2017 Special Tiara at 11/1 (with Douvan failing). More recently, Energumene was a well-supported favorite in 2023 and won
racingbetter.co.uk, while in 2024 the absence of the top two in the market (Energumene and Edwardstone both out) led to an open betting heat and a 17/2 winner. A big trend: 41 of the last 43 winners were 10/1 or under
geegeez.co.uk, showing that true longshots very rarely win this (the only ones beyond 10/1 in four decades were Special Tiara and Newmill in 2006). So punters usually narrow it down correctly. The favorite vs outsiders debate in Champion Chase often hinges on whether there’s an “Altior-like” figure. When there is, punters lump on and usually collect. When the field is open, it can pay to go against short-priced horses with vulnerabilities (e.g. 2021, Chacun Pour Soi was odds-on but had never run at Cheltenham – he lost to 17/2 Put The Kettle On who loved the course
racingbetter.co.uk). Notably, odds-on favorites have a patchy record: 6 of the last 9 odds-on favorites were beaten
geegeez.co.uk, a list that includes greats like Sprinter Sacre (failed in 2013 at 1/4 due to heart issue), Douvan (fell apart at 2/9 in 2017), Chacun (8/13 in 2021). So backing an odds-on in this race isn’t a sure thing unless you’re very confident in the horse’s condition and course aptitude. Bettors also look at Grade 1 credentials: 21 of the last 23 winners had already won a Grade 1 chase
geegeez.co.uk, so it’s very rare for a horse to break its Grade1 duck in the Champion Chase (Captain Guinness in 2024 was one of those rare cases). Typically, the betting reflects this – horses without a Grade 1 win are longer odds. Also, second-season chasers have a good record (12 of the last 22 winners)
geegeez.co.uk, which often corresponds to Arkle winners or those who were novices last year – and punters usually latch onto the previous year’s Arkle form. For instance, 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners to contest the Champion Chase next year won it
geegeez.co.uk, a strike rate that keeps the Arkle winner (or top novice) short in the market. We saw that with Shishkin (Arkle ’21 winner, was 5/6 fav in CC ’22 but pulled up), and with Energumene (Arkle ’21 2nd, won CC ’22 as 5/2 second-fav after Shishkin’s flop). Another betting trend: past Festival winners do well – 25 of the last 40 winners had won at the Festival before
geegeez.co.uk, so horses like Put The Kettle On (had won Arkle) often get extra market respect. Additionally, the Tingle Creek Chase in December is a key trial – 13 of the last 24 winners ran in it earlier in the season
geegeez.co.uk. Punters watch that race closely; winners or good performers there (e.g. Defi Du Seuil won the 2019 Tingle Creek and was fav for 2020 CC but flopped on the day). The Clarence House Chase at Ascot in January is another strong pointer (4 of last 12 winners won that en route)
geegeez.co.uk – Energumene won the Clarence House in both 2022 and 2023 before Cheltenham, hence was well bet. Given these trends, 2025’s betting will likely strongly favor an established Grade 1 two-miler (like a returning Energumene or Arkle winner El Fabiolo, etc.). Punters will also recall that Willie Mullins’ horses finally figured in – Mullins had often been over-bet without winning (e.g. Chacun Pour Soi was heavily backed multiple years), but now with Energumene’s wins Mullins’s entrants carry more weight in the market. On the other hand, Paul Nicholls’s runners sometimes go off at value prices and can surprise (Politologue was 11/1 in some books in 2020 morning, went off 6/1 and won; Nicholls often brings an outsider like Greaneteen 25/1 3rd in 2023
worldofhorses.co.uk). In summary, bettors should lean toward the top of the market – historically a 10/1 or shorter horse wins nearly every time
geegeez.co.uk – but be wary of heavily odds-on favorites with any question marks (course form, ground, etc.). Each-way players often do well with a solid 8/1 or 10/1 shot hitting the frame, but the winner is usually a horse with proven Grade 1 class that the market has identified.
Notable Patterns: The Champion Chase exhibits a few strong patterns. One is the Arkle-Champion Chase connection: as mentioned, many Champion Chase winners were top novice chasers the year before. Horses that ran in the previous season’s Arkle or in the previous Champion Chase itself account for a large portion of winners (18 of the last 25 winners ran in either the Arkle or a previous Champion Chase)
geegeez.co.uk. Multiple winners are common – if a horse wins it once and stays sound, they often come back (Altior, Energumene). In terms of profile, the ideal winner is a second-season chaser aged 7, 8 or 9, with a previous Festival win (or at least Festival experience), and already a Grade 1 winner. Indeed, 23 of the last 25 winners had won a Grade 1 chase before (Captain Guinness in 2024 and Newmill in 2006 being the exceptions)
geegeez.co.uk. That emphasizes how this race almost always goes to an established star. In-season form matters too: 19 of the last 22 winners had run that same calendar year (Jan/Feb)
geegeez.co.uk, so coming in fresh but not too fresh (1 run after New Year is common) is the norm. Also, 14 of the last 23 winners won their final prep race
geegeez.co.uk, indicating that being in winning form is a good sign. Previous Cheltenham success is huge: horses that have never run at Cheltenham can find it tough – that tripped up Chacun Pour Soi and others. It’s often said you need a previous Cheltenham win or a top-3 finish to be confident (Put The Kettle On had won 2 races at Cheltenham prior, Energumene had been 2nd in an Arkle, etc.). Additionally, a trend in breeding: French-breds have done well recently (e.g. Sprinter Sacre, Energumene, Politologue, Dodging Bullets all French-bred) – 9 of the last 18 winners were French-bred
geegeez.co.uk. Before that, Irish-breds like Moscow Flyer and English-breds like Master Minded had success, so it’s not exclusive, but currently the speedy French lineage (often from AQPS or French hurdles) seems advantageous. An interesting negative pattern: only two horses older than 10 have won since 1977
geegeez.co.uk (Sprinter at 10 and Moscow Flyer at 11 for his second win), so we rarely see an aging chaser win – by age 11+ their speed wanes (2024’s field was a case in point: the 12-year-old former champ Politologue was well beaten). Finally, course specialists can outrun expectations – Put The Kettle On famously was unbeaten at Cheltenham and sprang a surprise, which fits the idea that course form is vital. In summary, the Champion Chase “winner’s template” is a prime-aged (7-9) Grade One winner, usually last year’s Arkle hero or an experienced Grade 1 campaigner, who ran recently and likely won, with proven Cheltenham ability. Favorites often win, but if the fav has a flaw, look to the next best proven horse rather than a true longshot. With these patterns, it’s often a case of lining up the top few contenders against the trends and eliminating those with glaring negatives (like too old, no Grade1 win, no Cheltenham form, long layoff). 2024, for instance, became wide open when Energumene (Grade1 star) was out – it then fell to Captain Guinness, the next most logical on form, even though he hadn’t won a G1, he had placed in many and had Cheltenham experience. As the stats show, only very rarely does a left-field horse win this – so the patterns have strong predictive value for punters and analysts alike.
Cross Country Chase (3¾m Cross-Country) – 4:10pm (Glenfarclas Chase)
Past Winners: Although not always a Championship race, the Cross Country at the Festival has become high-profile thanks to repeat winners like Tiger Roll. It’s a unique contest run over banks and unconventional fences. Recent editions have been dominated by a few familiar names:
- 2023 – Delta Work (10yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Keith Donoghue, SP 11/10 Favgeegeez.co.ukgeegeez.co.uk
- 2022 – Delta Work (9yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Jack Kennedy, SP 5/2 (2nd fav)
- 2021 – Tiger Roll (11yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Keith Donoghue, SP 9/2
- 2020 – Easyland (6yo) – Trainer: David Cottin (FR), Jockey: Jonathan Plouganou, SP 3/1 (Fav)
- 2019 – Tiger Roll (9yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Keith Donoghue, SP 5/4 Fav
(Note: 2024 race was abandoned due to waterlogging)
This lineup shows that certain horses specialize in Cross Country. Tiger Roll, a two-time Grand National winner, made this race his own with victories in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (race didn’t occur in 2020 for him, as Easyland won a rescheduled version in December 2020). After Tiger Roll’s era, Delta Work picked up the mantle with back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023
geegeez.co.uk. Both Tiger Roll and Delta Work were high-class ex-steeplechasers who adapted to the cross-country course. Age-wise, winners are often older: horses aged 8 to 11 have done very well (the last nine runnings were won by horses between 8 and 12). It’s generally a veteran’s race – these horses have lots of experience. For example, Delta Work was 9 and 10 for his wins, Tiger Roll was 8, 9, and 11 for his three wins. The exception was Easysland, an up-and-coming 6-year-old from France who won in 2020 (beating Tiger Roll) – that was notable as one of the few younger winners. The French have a presence: Easysland (FR) in 2020 and before him a French-trained mare, Balthazar King (well, Balthazar King was British but won twice, while the French-trained Josies Orders was disqualified once in 2015 handing it to a French-trained Any Currency – long story with DQ). In terms of nationality: Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
geegeez.co.uk. Enda Bolger, the Irish trainer, dominated the early years with specialists like Spot Thedifference, Garde Champêtre, and Balthazar King (though Balthazar was UK-trained by Philip Hobbs). Recently, Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 (Tiger Roll and Delta Work)
geegeez.co.uk. J.P. McManus (owner) also targets this – he’s owned 7 winners since 2005 (often trained by Bolger)
geegeez.co.uk. Keith Donoghue as jockey has 4 wins (all on Tiger Roll and Delta Work)
geegeez.co.uk, making him the jockey to follow in this sphere. One thing to note is repeat winners: horses often come back year after year – Tiger Roll (3 wins), Garde Champêtre (2 wins), Balthazar King (2 wins) are examples. The Cross Country course is quirky and some horses absolutely love it. Conversely, horses new to it can struggle: “Debutants over these fences have a poor record” – only a couple have ever won on their first try (Delta Work was one of the rare ones to win on his XC debut in 2022)
geegeez.co.uk. As such, past winners and course specialists usually dominate the placings. The fact that the 2024 running was abandoned due to ground conditions (waterlogged) is a reminder that this race is run on the infield which can get very heavy. But typically they reschedule or the horses contest a substitute race – so those form lines still count. In summary, recent history = Tiger Roll & Delta Work show with a cameo by a top French raider (Easysland). Expect the trend of veteran specialists to continue – it’s the norm for this event.
Trainer/Jockey Performance: Enda Bolger (IRE) is synonymous with cross-country – he has 5 wins in this race (he virtually owned it in the 2000s)
geegeez.co.uk. His last win, however, was in 2009; since then, Gordon Elliott has become the new master. Gordon Elliott has indeed won 5 of the last 7 Festival Cross Country races (2017–2023, excluding 2020 when his Tiger Roll was second to Easysland)
geegeez.co.uk. Elliott’s victories were with Cause of Causes (2017), Tiger Roll (2018, 2019, 2021) and Delta Work (2022, 2023). He clearly targets his classy staying chasers at this race as a springboard to the Grand National or as an end in itself. Among British trainers, Philip Hobbs had two wins with Balthazar King (2012 & 2014) and he often had that horse in contention (also second in other years). But in recent years, the UK has been quiet here – 2020 was technically a French trainer, and 2021-2023 all Irish. Henry de Bromhead and Willie Mullins rarely target this race (Mullins has never won it, de Bromhead neither)
geegeez.co.uk. It’s really Elliott vs Bolger historically, with Elliott currently on top. Jockeys:Keith Donoghue has emerged as the cross-country specialist rider – he rode Tiger Roll in all his XC wins (because Davy Russell couldn’t do the low weights) and also Delta Work in 2023
geegeez.co.uk. He’s got 4 wins now, one shy of Nina Carberry’s record of 5. Nina Carberry (amateur for Bolger) was the queen of the banks, winning 5 times between 2005–2016. Jamie Powell, Mark Walsh, Davy Russell, Jack Kennedy have also won it, but those were one-offs or two. So currently, if it’s an Elliott horse, expect Keith Donoghue aboard (he knows the course intricately). A shout-out to French jockeys – in 2020 French amateur Jonathan Plouganou came and won on Easysland, showing the unique skills needed (he had experience in French cross-country). Historically, JP McManus as owner looms large – he owned many Bolger winners (Spot Thedifference, Garde Champêtre, Josies Orders though DQ’d, etc.). Lately, Gigginstown (Michael O’Leary) with Tiger Roll and Delta Work have taken over. But note: 7 of the last 9 winners were owned by either Gigginstown or JP McManus
geegeez.co.uk. That reflects those connections’ focus on this niche. Another stat: horses often run in the Cheltenham December Cross Country as a prep – 10 of the last 19 winners ran in the December meeting’s cross-country race
geegeez.co.uk. Sure enough, Delta Work and Tiger Roll both used those preps.
Impact of Pace: The cross-country race is unlike any other at Cheltenham: it’s much longer (about 3¾ miles) with a variety of obstacles (banks, hedges, rails) requiring horses to steady up and jump at different angles. Therefore, the concept of “pace” is more tactical. They don’t go hard from the start; typically the field will settle into an even rhythm to get the hang of the course. It’s often a case of jockeys conserving energy and their horse’s jumping for the first 2+ miles, then gradually upping the pace on the final lap. We often see the field tightly bunched for much of the race, then it begins to single out as they enter the racecourse proper for the last few fences. That said, some years a few horses might go on early – but if they do, they rarely last home. The smart ride is to keep your horse out of trouble, in a good position (mid-division or tracking leaders) as they navigate the tricky obstacles, then make a move with about 4-5 fences left (around 6 furlongs from home). Tiger Roll was a master at this: Donoghue would have him close up but not necessarily leading, then gradually improve his position and often take over before the last couple of jumps, using Tiger’s acceleration. Delta Work similarly moved into contention well before the final turn in 2023 – he asserted his class by kicking on and had the race in safe keeping by the last fence. Generally, course knowledge and jumping fluency trump raw speed. A horse with inferior foot speed can beat a faster horse if it handles the banks better or takes the right lines. We also notice frequent changes of lead – horses that are prominent early might drop back after a mistake at a bank, then rejoin later because the pace lulls. It’s a very tactical, cat-and-mouse type race until the closing stages. The final stretch after the last is short (run-in on the racecourse), so a horse needs to be in front or close-up by then. Historically, front-runners rarely go wire-to-wire here; it’s usually a case of having something left for the run from the second-last (the famous Aintree-style double-bank) to the finish. Enda Bolger’s horses often used to take it up quite early because they were so adept at the course – for example, his Spot Thedifference often led most of the way. But nowadays the standard of horse is higher (ex-Gold Cup/National types), so they ride it more like a strategic marathon than a hack canter and sprint. Another aspect: because the obstacles are varied, the “pace” can slow dramatically at certain points (like jumping the bank complex) and then quicken on the grass galloping stretches. It’s not a constant gallop like a normal chase – it’s intermittent. Jockeys who judge those transitions well gain an edge (e.g. accelerating out of a slow bank section can catch others flat-footed). Tiger Roll used to gain lengths by being nimble and quick away from the banks, effectively creating pace where others were still slowing down. In contrast, a horse uncomfortable in the format might lose ground at every tricky fence and be out of contention long before the end, despite the overall slow time. So, the key is fluency and efficiency = energy saved = stronger finish. In practice, by the time they reach the last few plain fences on the racecourse, the race is usually between 2–3 horses that have handled everything best. Often those horses are the favorites/experts. For example, in 2023, Delta Work (fav) and Galvin (second fav) drew clear of the rest – class and experience came to the fore as the pace increased. In summary, the cross-country race is run at a moderate, steady pace early, building to a sprint from a long way out (in relative terms) as horses jostle for position approaching the final few obstacles. It’s a very tactical affair where a well-timed move and patience are critical. You rarely see a furious early pace or a come-from-nowhere closer – it’s more about sustained positioning and then a grinding finish. As trends note, horses debuting on this course have a poor record
geegeez.co.uk – likely because they can’t adapt to the pace changes and nuances mid-race. So connections often give a horse a trial run in December to learn the ropes. Once a horse “gets it,” they can be ridden positively next time.
Ground Conditions: The Cross Country course is on the centre of the track and can get very soft in wet winters. Heavy ground can dramatically slow the race (times can exceed 10 minutes) and turn it into a real slog. Conversely, on decent ground, we’ve seen quite lively finishes. This race has seen it all: Tiger Roll won on soft and good ground in different years. Most winners handle soft well, which makes sense as they often come from staying chase backgrounds. In 2019, Tiger Roll won on good-to-soft in a fast time, whereas in 2018 he won on heavy in a grinding finish – he coped with both. If the ground is very testing, it can favor the out-and-out stayers even more. For instance, 2020’s race (held in December on heavy) saw Easysland outstay Tiger Roll by 17 lengths – Tiger floundered in deep ground under top weight. So heavy ground can lead to larger winning margins and perhaps the occasional surprise if a favorite doesn’t act. However, looking at stats: 16 of the last 19 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk, showing even on varying ground the expected horses tend to win. That includes those heavy-ground years where Tiger Roll (2018) still won at 7/1 and Delta Work (2022) won at 5/2 on soft – class told. Another factor is that footing on banks can be slippery when soft, so very soft ground might advantage horses with previous experience on that terrain (the Irish point-to-point types). A trend: the last 8 winners all wore some form of headgear (blinkers/cheekpieces)
geegeez.co.uk and 9 of the last 11 wore a tongue-tie
geegeez.co.uk – this suggests many trainers equip their horses for a stamina test, especially on softer ground to help breathing and focus. As far as biases: the Irish horses often run on softer ground at home (Punchestown’s banks course etc.), so when Cheltenham is soft they thrive. British horses not used to it might struggle – e.g. a good ground specialist like Balthazar King skipped very soft renewals. That’s partly why Irish (and French) have the edge. On better ground, the race might be slightly more open to speed – Easysland’s big win in 2020 (March) was on soft-heavy, but when it came up good-ish in 2021, an aging Tiger Roll still almost won (caught late by younger Potters Corner, but Tiger was disqualified for weight rules, finishing 2nd in reality). One more thing: because of the nature of the course, frost or rain can lead to abandonment (as in 2024). If the ground is frozen or waterlogged, horses can’t run safely on the banks. But assuming normal conditions: the going tends to be soft in March on that course typically. So we expect a test – which suits the proven cross-country specialists. It’s also observed that horses aged 7 or younger rarely win (only 3 wins from 101 such runners historically)
geegeez.co.uk, possibly because younger horses might not have the strength on soft ground for this distance. Indeed, Easysland at 6 was a rarity (but a French prodigy). All others in recent memory were 8+. Also, horses that won their last race don’t always follow up here – only 3 of last 14 winners won their previous start
geegeez.co.uk. Often they were beaten in a prep but improve for the Festival (Tiger Roll often lost in prep then won here). That suggests ground fluctuations from prep to Festival might play a part – e.g. Tiger was often beaten on winter heavy but then won on spring soft. All in all, ground does affect margin and style, but the same cadre of horses usually come to the fore. If it’s genuinely heavy, perhaps an upset is slightly more possible (like an outsider plodding on for a place), but even then, favorites often handle it. Notably, in 2023 soft ground, the 1-2-3 were all Elliott-trained and top-rated (Delta, Galvin, Franco De Port) – class horses that acted on soft. The trends show a bias to the top of the market and previous course experience, regardless of going
geegeez.co.uk. So ground is a secondary factor in picking the winner, compared to course prowess.
Key Betting Trends: The Cross Country tends to be a punters’ race in recent years – favorites or well-fancied horses usually win. This is because the same few horses dominate the division, and bettors latch onto them. For instance, Tiger Roll was a very popular favorite in his wins (even at 7/2, 5/4, etc.), and Delta Work was favored or near favorite for his wins. As noted, 22 of the last 26 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
geegeez.co.uk, which is quite striking for a race with relatively small fields (~12-16 runners). In fact, since the race’s inception in 2005, we’ve seen very few shock winners. The biggest upset might have been A New Story at 25/1 in 2010, but that was a rarity. More commonly, the winner is 5/1 or less. 16 of the last 19 winners were 7/1 or shorter
geegeez.co.uk, showing strong market predictability. Bettors tend to pile on the proven cross-country stars – and are usually rewarded. For example, in 2023 Delta Work was heavily backed (around 11/10) after his win the year before and the public sentiment of him being the “new Tiger Roll” – he obliged
geegeez.co.uk. The only time in recent memory a favorite lost was when Tiger Roll (4/1) was beaten by Easysland (3/1 fav) in 2020 – so still the top two in market in a flip result. Enda Bolger’s runners used to be automatically short in the betting, sometimes over-bet due to his reputation, even if they didn’t always win. But nowadays, Gordon Elliott’s horse is usually favorite and typically delivers. One trend is that U.K. bookmakers sometimes underestimate the French: in 2020 Easysland was favored but still a decent 3/1 – and he won easily. If a capable French horse lines up, they often represent value as British/Irish punters aren’t as familiar. Also, JP McManus-owned runners often attract support (because of Bolger’s history and JP’s love for this race). In 2023, JP’s Franco De Port was backed into 5/1 third-fav but managed only third behind the Elliott duo. Cheltenham Cross-Country form is probably the most crucial factor for bettors – horses who have performed well in the December or November cross-country races (or previous Festivals) get bet. For instance, Delta Work’s narrow defeat to Tiger Roll in 2022 made him a banker in 2023 for many. Similarly, back in the day, any horse that won the January Cheltenham banks race (when they used to run one) would be popular for March. The trend “course debutants struggle”
geegeez.co.uk also affects betting – if a horse hasn’t tried the course, punters tend to avoid unless it’s a known cross-country racer elsewhere. In 2022, Delta Work was technically a debutant over the XC course yet still well-backed second-fav at 5/2 because he was class – he defied the debutant stat by winning
geegeez.co.uk. That was a slight exception; punters took the chance on class prevailing (rightly). Another angle: because this race often has smallish fields, bookmakers sometimes price it conservatively – not many go off at huge prices, and longshots rarely feature. Place betting often centers on the same few as well. In terms of market movers: information like “trainer X schooled this horse over the banks last week” can cause mid-tier contenders to shorten. But mostly, once a horse like Tiger Roll or Delta Work is confirmed to run, they take most of the market volume. An example of a gamble was in 2021: Some late money came for Some Neck (an ex-Willie Mullins horse switched to John McConnell) who was a newish face to cross-country – he went off 11/2 second fav and finished third; he had won a Cheltenham XC in Dec 2020 at 18/1, so punters caught on by March. We also often see multiple entries from certain trainers (Elliott often runs 2-3, as does McManus/Bolger). The betting tends to focus on the top pick from each. If Tiger Roll and another Elliott horse run, Tiger (with his story and form) took all the action; similarly, in 2023, Galvin was an Elliott second-string but still second fav due to class – and indeed they ran 1-2. In short, bettors have learned that sticking with the proven stars in this race is the way to go, and the trends validate that: favorites have a strong strike rate here. A final point: because it’s a unique race, some casual bettors avoid it, but those who do play it often include it in accumulators if there’s a solid favorite (Tiger Roll used to be anchor leg for many multiples). The consistency of outcome (Tiger winning repeatedly, Delta continuing that) means it’s seen fewer betting shocks than any other Festival handicap or even Grade 1.
Notable Patterns: The cross-country has very distinct trends given its specialist nature. Previous course experience is golden – as noted, until Delta Work, it was virtually unheard of for a first-timer to win. The vast majority of winners had run over the Cheltenham XC course before. Many had also run in this Festival race before: horses like Tiger Roll, Balthazar King, Garde Champêtre all won multiple times or won after placing in prior years. So a key pattern: look for horses that were in the top 4 of a previous Festival Cross Country. Also, horses that ran in December’s cross-country race at Cheltenham (or the January one when it existed) often go well – it’s practically a trial. Stamina and age: winners are usually seasoned stayers, aged 8 to 12. The stat of only 3 winners from 101 runners aged 7 or younger stands out
geegeez.co.uk – it suggests you want an older horse. Indeed, 15 of the last 19 winners were 10 or younger
geegeez.co.uk (the few older were Spot Thedifference at 12 and A New Story at 12, etc.), but very young ones (6 or 7) rarely manage (Easysland being the outlier at 6). The Irish dominance is stark: aside from the Hobbs-trained Balthazar King, almost every winner has been Irish-trained since 2005, with a couple of French. The British have struggled, which is a pattern (maybe due to less emphasis on this discipline). Another pattern: Gordon Elliott’s horses—particularly those from Gigginstown—are peaking for this. He often uses cheekpieces or blinkers on them to sharpen them up (Delta Work wears blinkers, Tiger Roll sometimes wore cheekpieces). That ties into the stat that recently the last 8 winners all wore some headgear
geegeez.co.uk. Possibly because these are older horses who benefit from extra focus. Enda Bolger’s contingent: while Bolger hasn’t won lately, his runners often hit the frame. His horse Shady Operator or others usually place if not win – Bolger’s deep knowledge often gets a lesser horse to outperform. So one pattern is if Bolger has a fancied runner (especially in JP’s colors), it’s likely well-schooled and can be thereabouts, even if Elliott’s horse is classier. Jockey bookings: cross-country experts (Donoghue, Carberry in the past) often stay with one horse and rack up wins. If a top jockey is on a horse for the first time, that horse may be overbet but not have the rider experience on course – that’s something to consider. And a fun stat: 7 of the last 9 winners were owned by either Gigginstown or McManus
geegeez.co.uk, meaning focusing on those owners’ runners is a quick shortcut. In fact, JP McManus had a remarkable 1-2-3 (officially) in 2020 when Easysland (not owned by him) won, but Tiger Roll (Gigginstown) was 2nd and then disqualified, promoting JP’s horses to 2nd, 3rd, 4th. This shows JP often has multiple aimed here (he loves cross-country racing). The prestige of multiple wins also stands out: many winners repeat or at least had won the November or December cross-country at Cheltenham. In terms of breeding, no strong pattern beyond lots of French-breds doing well (they have cross-country in France). For example, French-bred Easysland, Diesel D’Allier have won/placed. Summary profile: The typical winner is a 9-10 year old gelding, Irish-trained (most likely Elliott) or a French import, with previous cross-country course experience (ideally placed in a prior edition), carrying maybe headgear, and firmly in the top few of the market. They often have Grand National experience or aspirations – Tiger Roll and Delta Work were GN horses, as was Cause of Causes. The race is frequently a stepping stone: after winning here, horses often go to Aintree. That ties into them being high-class staying chasers. So unlike a normal handicap, in cross-country the cream really rises because lesser horses struggle with the challenge. Expect 2025 to be no different: the well-known cross-country specialist will likely take the win barring incident.
Grand Annual Chase (2m Handicap Chase Grade 3) – 4:50pm
Past Winners: The Grand Annual, traditionally the Festival’s last race (though recently moved to Wednesday), is a fast and furious 2-mile handicap chase with plenty of shocks. Recent winners underline how unpredictable it can be:
- 2024 – Unexpected Party (9yo) – Trainer: Dan Skelton, Jockey: Harry Skelton, SP 12/1cheltenhamfestival.fans
- 2023 – Maskada (7yo) – Trainer: Henry de Bromhead, Jockey: Darragh O’Keeffe, SP 22/1
- 2022 – Global Citizen (10yo) – Trainer: Ben Pauling, Jockey: Kielan Woods, SP 28/1
- 2021 – Sky Pirate (8yo) – Trainer: Jonjo O’Neill, Jockey: Nick Scholfield, SP 14/1
- 2020 – Chosen Mate (7yo) – Trainer: Gordon Elliott, Jockey: Davy Russell, SP 7/2 Fav
We immediately see that outsiders often win or place in this race. The last four renewals (2020–2024) have been won by horses at 12/1, 22/1, 28/1, 14/1 – except for 2020 when Chosen Mate won as the well-backed favorite
geegeez.co.uk. In general, the favorite has a poor record (only 2 winning favs in the past 20 years or so)
geegeez.co.uk. Winners can come from anywhere in the betting. The Grand Annual is also notable for some older winners – a 10-year-old won in 2022 (Global Citizen) and 9yo in 2024, whereas most Festival races skew younger. Historically, horses aged 8 and above have done fine (14 of last 21 winners were aged 8 or older)
geegeez.co.uk. The race often suits experienced two-milers rather than novices, though novices can win (6 of the last 16 winners were novices or second-season chasers)
geegeez.co.uk. We’ve also seen quite a spread in weights: top weights can win (Sky Pirate carried 11st 6lb in 2021), and lower weights can win (Global Citizen had 10st 4lb in 2022). Recent winners tend to carry 11 stone or more – 8 of the last 11 winners carried at least 11st
geegeez.co.uk – but that could be partly due to compressed handicap conditions. Trainers with multiple successes include Paul Nicholls (won 4 since 2004) and Nicky Henderson (won 3, last in 2012)
geegeez.co.uk. However, recent winners have come from a variety of yards (Skelton, de Bromhead, Pauling, O’Neill, Elliott). One pattern: Irish-trained horses have done well in recent times – five of the last 12 runnings went to Ireland
geegeez.co.uk (including 2020 Elliott and 2023 de Bromhead). Also, JP McManus-owned horses often target this race (it’s named after Nicky Henderson’s father, Johnny Henderson), and JP likes to win it – he had the 1–2 in 2012 and won again in 2019 with Le Prezien. He often has multiple runners. Regarding jockeys, being the frenetic race it is, sometimes conditional jockeys or lesser-used jockeys get the ride due to low weights. Notably, Kielan Woods (Global Citizen) and Nick Scholfield (Sky Pirate) were not big-name Festival jockeys but grabbed wins here. Meanwhile, top jockey Davy Russell guided Chosen Mate in 2020, and Harry Skelton won in 2024. No single jockey dominates the Grand Annual; it’s usually whoever is on the right well-handicapped horse. Overall, the past winners list screams unpredictability – which is a hallmark of the Grand Annual.
Trainer/Jockey Performance: Certain trainers have historically excelled in the Grand Annual despite its volatility. Paul Nicholls has won it 4 times (most recently in 2016 with Solar Impulse) and often goes close – his horses, often novices, are usually well-prepared for a strong pace. Nicky Henderson (for whom the race is very meaningful personally) has a good record with 4 wins too (though his last win was 2012, he’s had places since). In recent years, Dan Skelton has emerged with an excellent Festival handicap record, and he nabbed this in 2024 with Unexpected Party. Henry de Bromhead showed his 2-mile chase prowess by winning in 2023 with Maskada (a mare he improved). We often see Irish raiders doing well; beyond de Bromhead and Elliott, Willie Mullins surprisingly hasn’t targeted this much (no wins, as it’s a handicap chase not usually his focus). Smaller UK yards have had their moment: Ben Pauling’s Global Citizen in 2022 was notable (Pauling’s first Festival win since 2019). Jonjo O’Neill with Sky Pirate 2021 was another – Jonjo often places his horses shrewdly in handicaps. As for jockeys, historically, AP McCoy won this a few times (for Henderson/McManus) and Paul Carberry notched a couple for Nicholls and Noel Meade in the mid-2000s. But nowadays, no rider has a stranglehold. One interesting note: because this race used to be the closing race on Friday, some jockeys would desperately try to get a Festival win here, leading to wild rides. In 2021 it was moved to Wednesday for safety reasons (to avoid overly tired horses/jockeys at week’s end). The Skelton brothers teaming up in 2024 was significant – Harry Skelton has now won this race twice (also 2016 on Solar Impulse for Nicholls)
worldofhorses.co.uk, which might quietly make him a Grand Annual specialist. Davy Russell also had multiple wins (2008 and 2020). Overall, trainer patterns: Nicholls and Henderson remain highly respected in this race (they often have multiple runners and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them add to their tallies). Irish trainers have won 3 of the last 5, indicating a shift; perhaps better Irish 2m handicap chasers or more focus. Jockey patterns: nothing overly consistent – often whoever is on the best-handicapped horse wins, whether they’re a champion jockey or not. One thing: experience in a helter-skelter 2m chase matters, so sometimes trainers put up a jockey who excels on front-runners or in fast races. For instance, in 2022 Kielan Woods gave a brilliant front-running ride on Global Citizen, reflecting his bold style. In contrast, 2023’s Maskada was patiently ridden by Darragh O’Keeffe, a younger Irish jockey who timed it well. So a cool head or an aggressive plan can both work – choosing the right rider for the horse’s running style is key. Also, historically, claiming jockeys can win if their claim gets the weight down – e.g. 2015 Next Sensation won with Tom Scudamore (no claim), but 4th that year was a 50/1 shot ridden by a claimer, etc. However, recently claims haven’t been a huge factor for the winners.
Impact of Pace: The Grand Annual is often red-hot from the tape rise. It’s 2 miles on Cheltenham’s New Course (since the schedule shuffle in 2021), which has a longer run-in than the Old Course, but that hasn’t slowed the early fractions. Typically, there are several natural front-runners in a big field of ~20, so the early pace is very fast. Horses that can’t cope with that pace or jump sketchily will be out of contention quickly. We usually see a line of horses winging the fences at speed down the back. This frenetic pace means jumping errors are common as horses are taken out of their comfort zone. In recent renewals, a well-timed ride is crucial: hang on to your mount as long as possible before committing seems to be the formula. For example, Sky Pirate (2021) was held up off a furious pace and came through late to win
geegeez.co.uk. Similarly, Maskada (2023) was ridden patiently in mid-pack and picked off the leaders up the hill. In contrast, Global Citizen (2022) defied the usual trend by making virtually all the running – he got loose on the lead and his accurate jumping helped him maintain the advantage; he capitalized on a reduced field (only 11 that year due to rescheduling) and better ground to steal it from the front. That’s more an exception: generally, front-runners in this race struggle to lead all the way given the pressure. A fast early pace often results in tired horses late, so closers frequently nab them. The New Course’s uphill finish only exacerbates that: horses can falter after the last if they’ve gone too hard. We saw Unexpected Party (2024) come from behind – he had something left to surge through at the end while others tied up
cheltenhamfestival.fans. The large field also means interference can be an issue – mid-pack horses might get hampered by fallers (this race often has fallers or URs). So some trainers instruct jockeys to either be prominent to avoid trouble or wide for a clear run. For instance, some winners track just behind the leaders (Next Sensation 2015 sat 2nd/3rd throughout and pounced). Others like Le Prezien (2018) came from quite far back. There’s no one way, but staying out of trouble is key. Pace-wise, it’s arguably the fastest race of the Festival in terms of early speed – often run even faster than the Champion Chase because of the number of front-running handicappers. The strong pace also brings stamina at the trip into play: though it’s “just” 2 miles, many horses that win or place in the Grand Annual have form over 2½ miles or at least show they stay on well. Sky Pirate had tried 2½ before coming back to 2m with success. Maskada had won over 2½. This suggests that the furious gallop effectively makes it a 2m1f test of stamina. The trends say 5 of the last 10 winners won after a break of 91+ days
geegeez.co.uk, which could indicate that horses run very fresh and bold, but also that fresh horses can sustain the pace better. And last-time-out winners are rare in this (only 1 in last 18)
geegeez.co.uk, meaning many tried something and maybe failed at a longer trip or a Grade 1, and then drop into this with that stamina edge. Tactically, jockeys often slice and dice for good position early – you’ll see a charge to the first fence. Surviving that, the ones who can settle just enough not to overcook, yet keep up will be there in the end. It’s not unusual to see a longshot go off hard in front and then collapse turning for home, with the race evolving into a battle of the stalkers. In summary, the Grand Annual’s pace is relentless and more akin to a cavalry charge. Efficient jumping at speed and the ability to quickly recover from any mistake (because there’s no time to regather in a slow race) are critical. The winner tends to either be a strong traveler who can sit handy without pulling too hard or a tough closer who can capitalize on the collapse of tired leaders. Ride timing is everything: too soon and you’re out of gas, too late and a rival has flown. In 2024, Harry Skelton timed Unexpected Party’s run perfectly after a patient ride, whereas some others kicked for home a fraction too early and got caught. Expect 2025 to be no different: breakneck pace, plenty of thrills and spills, and a test of nerve for jockeys in when to press the “go” button.
Ground Conditions: Ground can influence which type of horse wins the Grand Annual. On good or good-to-soft ground, the race becomes even faster and often favors horses that truly have 2-mile speed. On softer ground, it can blunt the early speed a touch (though they’ll still go quick) and bring stamina more into play, possibly helping those who stay further or carry a bit less weight. Looking at recent runnings: 2021 (good) saw a classier type (Sky Pirate) carry top weight and still win – his class showed on better ground. 2022 was good-to-soft and Global Citizen was able to hang on from the front – perhaps firmer ground meant front-runners could last a bit longer. 2023 was soft, which maybe contributed to the 22/1 upset (Maskada loved soft ground, and some speedier horses didn’t). Indeed, Maskada had form on heavy and her soft-ground aptitude was likely key – she beat the favorite Dinoblue who might prefer it quicker. 2024 ground was soft (after rain) and again we got a mid-priced winner (12/1) rather than the well-fancied Dinoblue (again favorite, again placed). It’s notable that only 2 of the last 20 winners were outright favorites
geegeez.co.uk, so ground aside, betting is tricky. But ground can shuffle the deck: e.g. if it’s heavy, some horses might be withdrawn (for safety, as it happened in 2008 when it was very heavy, a 50/1 won). The New Course’s fences are stiffer too, and in soft ground they become even more testing. Historically, horses rated 150+ don’t have a great win rate (though a few have managed, like Sky Pirate around 152)
geegeez.co.uk, and on soft ground carrying big weight is harder. The trends note 8 of last 11 winners had run at the Festival before
geegeez.co.uk – possibly because those with experience on Cheltenham’s undulations/ground adapt better regardless of conditions. Weight-wise, if it’s soft, you might lean toward those carrying a bit less – Global Citizen carried 11-8 on officially soft in 2022 which was exceptional (though that year’s field was smaller). Another ground-related factor: wind or drying ground late in the day – since this race is later in the afternoon, if earlier races churn up the ground, the inside might get cut up. Savvy jockeys may come wider seeking better grass (which Sky Pirate did in 2021, came stands’ side). If the ground is heavy, we might see a slightly steadier early pace (relatively) and more focus on jumping. But given the nature of these 2m chasers, they only have one gear: flat-out. So heavy ground mainly means more will be leg-weary at the end and perhaps a bigger-priced stayer can slog through. The stat that horses aged 10+ rarely win (just 3 wins from last 29 runnings)
geegeez.co.uk might be partly because older horses can’t cope with the speed on less testing ground, but Global Citizen bucked that at 10 (with an enterprising ride). That stat aside, age seems less of a barrier here than in other races. In conclusion, ground conditions can tilt the race from being a pure speed test (on good ground, favoring high-cruising, slick jumpers) to a more attritional test (on soft, favoring those with grit and perhaps a low weight). But regardless of ground, the frenetic nature persists – it’s just whether they finish in a heap or strung out. The Grand Annual has seen winners on all goings, so it’s not that any specific ground consistently produces a certain outcome; it simply adds another layer to the handicap puzzle. Perhaps most importantly, ground affects the fate of the well-fancied horses: e.g. Dinoblue was fav on soft in 2023 and could only manage second; maybe on better ground her raw speed might have won. Thus, punters will adjust: soft ground, look for those proven on soft and maybe carrying a bit less; good ground, lean into the classier horses even if top weight.
Key Betting Trends: The Grand Annual is known as a graveyard for favorites. According to trends, only 2 favorites have won in the past 20 renewals
geegeez.co.uk (the latest being Chosen Mate in 2020). It consistently produces winners at double-figure odds – in the last decade alone we’ve had winners at 28/1, 25/1, 20/1, 16/1, etc. This is partly due to the chaotic nature and the sheer number of closely matched horses. For bettors, it’s often wiser to go each-way on a fancied outsider or spread bets. 11 of the last 15 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
geegeez.co.uk, which underscores how unpredictable it is. So unlike the Champion Chase, here the market is not a great guide. One trend: British trainers often dominate the betting but Irish can upset – e.g. in 2020 the well-backed 7/2 fav was Irish (Chosen Mate, who did win), but in 2023, the Irish Dinoblue was fav and got beaten by another Irish (Maskada) at 22/1, meaning Irish 1-2 with Brits out. So paying attention to all Irish runners is important; sometimes the less fancied one (Maskada) wins while the hyped one (Dinoblue) doesn’t. Another stat: novices or second-season chasers have a fair record (12 of last 16 winners were novice/2nd-season)
geegeez.co.uk, often because they’re unexposed and well-handicapped. Punters often latch onto these “plot” horses – like Chosen Mate in 2020 (a novice plotted for handicaps) who was hammered into favoritism and won
geegeez.co.uk. Similarly, in 2021 Sky Pirate was actually quite well fancied (14/1 but had been a gamble from bigger prices antepost after back-to-back wins) – he was a second-season chaser dropping in trip. So significant gambles can occur: JP McManus plots have been notable historically (he’s landed touches in this race with horses like Bellvano 20/1 in 2012, Le Prezien 15/2 in 2018). JP’s runners often shorten near off – in 2023, his horse Andy Dufresne was co-fav at 7/2 after being second in 2022, but could only manage mid-field. This highlights another trend: horses that placed before often come back but rarely win the next year (though Le Prezien did improve from 3rd one year to win the next). Also, only 3 of last 25 winners ran more than 12 times over fences
geegeez.co.uk – so veterans with a lot of chase miles are generally overlooked by punters (Global Citizen defied that as a 10yo with many runs). Bettors also consider weight: historically, extreme top weights had a hard time, but the compression of weights and classy types like Sky Pirate have changed that view – still, horses in the mid-weight range (around 138–148 rating) have produced most winners
geegeez.co.uk. The trends indeed show 13 of last 14 winners rated 138-150
geegeez.co.uk, so punters might eliminate those rated much higher or much lower. Another pattern: trainers known for gambles (Skelton, Nicholls, Henderson, Elliott) often have heavily-backed contenders. For example, in 2024 Dinoblue (trained by Willie Mullins for JP) was the clear favorite at 7/2 – but she lost again. Meanwhile, the winner Unexpected Party drifted from 8/1 to 12/1 but was still well within the top 10 in market. Actually, an interesting stat: while winners can be big odds, nearly all winners since 2000 were 16/1 or shorter at SP except a few (Global Citizen 28/1, Kadoun 2006 at 40/1, etc.). Many “big upsets” came in the 20/1 range, which in these fields might be only 8th or 9th in the betting. So it’s competitive but not usually a complete rank outsider (though 28/1 is pretty high). The safest betting approach often is spread multiple small bets on fancied horses and a couple of bigger prices. Place markets or exactas can pay well here because of longshots hitting frame. Also, note the effect of the move to Wednesday: since moving from Friday to Wednesday (2021 onward), some think it might have less of the “end-of-week chaos” and maybe slightly more logical results – but 2022 and 2023 winners were still 28/1 and 22/1, so the chaos remains! Another key factor for bettors: handicap marks and recent form. The stat says only 1 of last 18 winners had won last time out
geegeez.co.uk, so punters shouldn’t necessarily be put off by a horse that was beaten in its prep. In fact, coming 4th or 5th in a trial might hide its ability and keep weight down – classic “plot” behavior. Many will look at horses that ran okay in Grade 1 or 2 company and now drop to a handicap – Chosen Mate fit that pattern. Late market moves are very telling in this race: if a horse that was 20/1 in morning is backed to 10/1 by off, it’s often from a shrewd yard with confidence (like Next Sensation was heavily backed in 2015 and bolted up). Conversely, some favorites drift (Dinoblue drifted a bit in 2023 near off as money came for others) – drifts on favorites aren’t uncommon as punters spread out their bets. In conclusion, from a trends perspective, the Grand Annual is one to approach with caution and perhaps contrarian thinking. Expect the unexpected, and don’t be afraid to back a quality horse at a price or an unexposed novice with a top rider. Because only 2 of the last 20 winners were outright favorites and only 2 of last 20 were under 4/1 (Paul Nicholls’ 2004 winner 7/2 and Chosen Mate 7/2)
geegeez.co.uk, the value often lies beyond the obvious.
Notable Patterns: Key patterns for the Grand Annual have emerged from statistics. We’ve touched on many: poor favorite record, success of second-season chasers, older horses can win, etc. Let’s summarize the standout ones:
- Weight/Rating: 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 138–150geegeez.co.uk. So horses in that upper-130s to mid-140s sweet spot dominate. Those creeping into the 150s (top weights) have a lower strike rate (though not impossible). Weights of 11st or a bit above have been common for winners in recent years (8 of last 11 carried ≥11st)geegeez.co.uk, contrary to many handicaps – indicating class has trumped a few extra pounds.
- Experience vs. Handicap “niceness”: 12 of last 16 winners were novice or second-season chasersgeegeez.co.uk. So novices (0 or 1 full season chasing) do very well – likely because their handicap mark might underestimate them. For example, Sky Pirate was a second-season chaser who found improvement dropping in trip. This pattern implies looking for a horse with relatively few chase starts but enough experience to handle a big field.
- Previous Festival/Track experience: 17 of last 21 winners had run at the Festival beforegeegeez.co.uk. That’s a strong trend – having been here, even if not in this race, seems beneficial. Additionally, 8 of last 21 ran in the previous year’s renewalgeegeez.co.uk (some placed previously then won, like Le Prezien, or just got experience). Cheltenham’s atmosphere and track can unnerve some horses, so previous exposure helps.
- Last run and Breaks: Only 1 of last 18 winners won on their last startgeegeez.co.uk. This indicates many winners were hiding their light in their prep (either running well in defeat or in a too-hard race). Also, 5 of last 10 winners came off a break of 3 months or moregeegeez.co.uk. That suggests that trainers often put these horses away to preserve their mark and bring them fresh (e.g. Global Citizen hadn’t run since Dec, Unexpected Party since Nov). So a horse coming in off a decent layoff is a positive, not a negative, here.
- Age: 14 of last 21 winners were age 8 or oldergeegeez.co.uk. Unlike many races where 6-7yo dominate, here seasoned campaigners often win. Perhaps because with age comes chasing craft and maybe a drop in mark. However, the stat also says horses aged 10+ have only 3 wins in last 29 runningsgeegeez.co.uk (Global Citizen being one of those). So ages 8 and 9 are prime.
- Repeat Winners: It’s rare to have a repeat winner (it’s happened historically, like Top Cees in 90s, but not recently). However, horses that run well often come back and hit the frame again (Persian War was triple placed decades ago, recent times Theinval placed twice, etc.). So pay attention if last year’s placed horses return, as they often run well but might find one too good again.
- Owner/Jockey patterns: JP McManus targets this race – he’s won it multiple times and often has the well-handicapped “plot”. Nicholls and Henderson horses (often in their owners’ silks like Mike Grech or Wasps RFC or whatever) also consistently show up. Paul Nicholls has had winners from 5yo to 8yo here and often uses front-running tactics. Each-Way value: Because of the upsets, each-way bettors note that filling the frame often are horses 20/1+. So backing longshots to place can be fruitful (like in 2022, Global Citizen 28/1 won, Andy Dufresne 10/3 fav second, Frero Banbou 33/1 third).
- High draws: (Now somewhat moot, as this moved from Old to New course). Historically low-numbered stalls did well when it was on Old Course due to quick run to first. On New Course, there’s a longer run to first fence, perhaps draw is less important now. But still, being able to get a position early matters, so an agile jumper from mid to outer can avoid trouble.
- Headgear: Not as strong a stat as in Cross Country, but several winners had headgear (cheekpieces or blinkers), which can help in a race where focus is needed amid chaos. In 2024, Unexpected Party wore cheekpieces first time, which might have helped.
In summary, the Grand Annual patterns point to looking for a well-handicapped, relatively unexposed chaser (often 2nd season) around 8–9 years old, likely carrying ~11st, who didn’t win last time and has been aimed at this fresh, ideally with prior Cheltenham experience. And then brace yourself – because even with all those boxes ticked, the race can still spring a surprise. It’s the kind of contest where trend followers might shortlist a dozen horses easily. That unpredictability is what makes the Grand Annual a thrilling finale (when it was last race) – or a mid-festival mayhem maker now on Wednesday. Expect drama, expect a close finish (often a few horses within a couple lengths), and expect that favorites will be vulnerable and a clever ride on a dark horse might steal the glory.
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