Winning Trainers and Their Day 1 Successes
Willie Mullins has been the dominant trainer on Day 1 over the past decade, with 19 opening-day winners from 2015–2024 – far ahead of any rival. Mullins often starts the Festival with multiple victories; for example, in 2015 he won four of the seven Day 1 races (including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Arkle, Champion Hurdle, and Mares’ Hurdle)
racingbetter.co.uk. His tally includes seven Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winners (his mare Appreciate It in 2021 was his seventh Supreme win)
timeform.com, reflecting a remarkable consistency with novice hurdlers. The next-most successful trainer has been Nicky Henderson, with 11 Day 1 wins (highlighted by multiple Champion Hurdle and Arkle victories). Other leading trainers include Henry de Bromhead (7 Day 1 wins, thanks largely to Honeysuckle and novice chase successes) and Gordon Elliott (6 wins, including a 2017 treble with Labaik, Apple’s Jade, and Tiger Roll). Many other trainers have picked up one or two Day 1 wins (e.g. David Pipe with two Ultima Handicap Chase wins, Lucinda Russell with back-to-back Ultima wins in 2022 and 2023) but Mullins and Henderson clearly stand out
timeform.com. Mullins’ Day 1 dominance is also evident in the betting – he often saddles multiple favourites on the card (he had as many as six Day 1 favourites in 2024)
timeform.com, and he frequently delivers on that promise.
Top Day 1 Trainers (2015–2024):
| Trainer | Day 1 Wins (2015–24) | Notable Day 1 Achievements |
|---|---|---|
| Willie Mullins | 19 | 7 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winstimeform.com; multiple Grade 1 sweeps |
| Nicky Henderson | 11 | 4 Champion Hurdles (incl. Buveur D’Air, Constitution Hill)cheltenhamfestival.fans; 3 Arkle Trophies |
| Henry de Bromhead | 7 | 3 Champion Hurdles (Honeysuckle 2021–22)cheltenhamfestival.fanscheltenhamfestival.fans; Arkle & Novice Chase wins |
| Gordon Elliott | 6 | 2017 hat-trick (Labaik, Apple’s Jade, Tiger Roll); 2020 NH Chase (Ravenhill) |
| Others (several tied) | 2 | (e.g. David Pipe, Lucinda Russell each with 2 Ultima wins) |
Mullins’ opening-day firepower has been unprecedented – for instance, in 2016 he won three Grade 1 races on Day 1 (Arkle with Douvan, Champion Hurdle with Annie Power, Mares’ Hurdle with Vroum Vroum Mag), all ridden by Ruby Walsh
Top Jockeys and Their Success Rates
The leading Day 1 jockey of the decade has been Ruby Walsh, who amassed 9 Day 1 wins from 2015 through his retirement in 2019. Walsh was Mullins’ principal rider for much of this period – for example, he piloted the Mullins Day 1 treble in 2016 (Douvan, Annie Power, Vroum Vroum Mag)
racingbetter.co.uk and also guided Faugheen (2015 Champion Hurdle) and Footpad (2018 Arkle) to victories. Close behind is Nico de Boinville with 9 Day 1 wins, chiefly riding for Nicky Henderson. De Boinville’s successes include back-to-back Arkle Trophies on Altior (2017) and Shishkin (2021) and two Champion Hurdles with Buveur D’Air and the superstar Constitution Hill
cheltenhamfestival.fans. Paul Townend (Mullins’ current stable jockey) has 7 Day 1 wins – he took over from Ruby and has won races like the 2021 Supreme (Appreciate It) and multiple Day 1 events in 2024 (Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle, State Man in the Champion Hurdle, Lossiemouth in the Mares’ Hurdle)
Rachael Blackmore has 6 Day 1 wins, notably becoming the first female jockey to win the Champion Hurdle when she triumphed on Honeysuckle in 2021
cheltenhamfestival.fans (and again in 2022). Blackmore also won the Mares’ Hurdle on Honeysuckle (2023) and the 2019 Close Brothers Novice Chase on A Plus Tard. Other jockeys with multiple Day 1 wins include Jack Kennedy (3 wins, including a Supreme and the 2021 NH Chase) and amateur rider Jamie Codd (3 wins, all in the long National Hunt Chase). However, Day 1 has also seen a wide spread of jockey success – in several years (e.g. 2019, 2020, 2021) each race was won by a different jockey, reflecting the depth of riding talent at the Festival.
Betting Trends – Odds of Winners and Favourite Performance
Opening day results illustrate a mix of short-priced winners and stunning upsets. On average, 2–3 of the 7 favorites win on Day 1 each year, often in the Grade 1 races. Punters have seen many hot favorites deliver: for example, Constitution Hill justified 4/11 odds in the 2023 Champion Hurdle
cheltenhamfestival.fans, and odds-on favourites like Douvan (1/4 in the 2016 Arkle) and Vroum Vroum Mag (4/6 in the 2016 Mares’ Hurdle) won as expected. The Arkle Challenge Trophy in particular has a history of short-priced winners (Altior at 1/4 in 2017, Shishkin at 4/9 in 2021, El Fabiolo at 11/10 in 2023)
cheltenhamfestival.fans. Similarly, the Champion Hurdle favorite has prevailed multiple times (Faugheen, Annie Power, Buveur D’Air, Honeysuckle, Constitution Hill all won as favorites).
However, Day 1 also consistently produces long-odds surprises – especially in big-field hurdles and handicaps. The biggest shock came in the 2021 Boodles Juvenile Handicap, when Jeff Kidder scored at 80/1
cheltenhamfestival.fans, the longest-priced Festival winner in 30 years. Other notable upsets include Labaik at 25/1 in the 2017 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Espoir D’Allen at 16/1 in the 2019 Champion Hurdle (when two well-fancied champions fell or underperformed). Even the Mares’ Hurdle has seen surprises – Black Tears (11/1) edged out odds-on favorite Concertista in 2021
cheltenhamfestival.fans, and Marie’s Rock (18/1) stunned a strong field in 2022
cheltenhamfestival.fans. The competitive handicaps on Day 1 tend to yield mid-range winners: the Ultima Handicap Chase winners have often gone off at 6/1 to 15/2 (with the exception of 28/1 veteran Vintage Clouds in 2021)
cheltenhamfestival.fans, and the formerly scheduled novices’ handicap chase (run 2015–2019) typically saw winners in the 6/1 to 12/1 range.
Average SP of Day 1 winners over the decade has been around 7–10/1, balancing the many short odds victors against a few big outsiders. For instance, in 2019 the average winner’s odds were about 10/1, as that day’s results ranged from 5/1 up to 16/1
racingbetter.co.uk. In contrast, 2018’s winners averaged closer to 6/1, aided by four favorites obliging (the Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Ultima joint-fav, etc.)
readhorseracing.com. The favorite success rate on Day 1 has been roughly 40% over 2015–2024 – usually 2 or 3 favorites win each year’s first day, with the other races seeing second-favorites or longer shots prevail. Bettors should note that while class often rises to the top in Grade 1 events, the large-field handicaps and juvenile races can produce unpredictable outcomes. As Timeform observed, the Festival opener and other Day 1 races can still spring surprises despite hyped favorites, so a balanced approach to betting is wise
Race Times and Notable Patterns
Race times on Day 1 have varied significantly year to year, largely due to weather and pace, but a few performances stand out. Constitution Hill’s 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was arguably the most impressive time-wise – he shattered the 2-mile course record in a runaway 22-length victory
cheltenhamfestival.fans. That opening race set a fierce standard, with Constitution Hill clocking around 3m 44s for the extended 2 miles, on ground officially described as good-to-soft. Another remarkably fast time came in the 2016 Champion Hurdle: Annie Power won in 3m 45.1s (just a second off the record) after setting a strong gallop, becoming the first mare in decades to take the Champion. By contrast, on softer ground the races have been much slower – for example, the 2018 Supreme (run on heavy ground) was nearly 17 seconds slower than Constitution Hill’s run, as the field slogged through mud. In those conditions, Summerville Boy still won in an honest time given the “unusually soft Festival ground” in 2018
Notably, when conditions are favorable, horses can achieve double-digit winning margins on Day 1, indicating both class and strong pace. Footpad’s 14-length Arkle win in 2018 was one such instance
readhorseracing.com – despite soft going, he powered clear, aided by a sensible ride as rivals set unsustainable fractions. In 2023, El Fabiolo similarly won the Arkle by 5½ lengths in a fast time, confirming himself the top 2m novice chaser
cheltenhamfestival.fans. The Champion Hurdle often produces emphatic wins by the favorite – Constitution Hill (2023) and Honeysuckle (2021) each scored by about 9 and 6½ lengths respectively
cheltenhamfestival.fans, reflecting their superiority and the honest pace in those races.
In longer races, times are naturally slower and margins can be tighter. The 4-mile (now ~3m6f) National Hunt Chase for amateurs is traditionally the slowest race of Day 1, sometimes approaching 7–8 minutes in duration. These marathons can become attritional – in 2019 only four horses finished the NH Chase, yet winner Le Breuil still showed grit to edge a close finish
betting.betfair.com. Overall, race times on Day 1 have shown that when the going is good, track records and wide winning margins are possible, whereas softer ground leads to slower times and can compress the field. Times should always be interpreted with the day’s conditions in mind.
Course Conditions and Their Impact
Going conditions on Day 1 have ranged from good (dry spring weather) to heavy (after significant rain or snow melt), dramatically affecting race dynamics. In years with rain-affected ground, stamina and mud-loving horses had an edge. For instance, 2018 opened “on soft, heavy in places” after an unusually wet lead-up
readhorseracing.com. Horses proven on soft ground thrived – in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle that year, Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov (first and second) “proved their liking for soft ground” by repeating their Tolworth Hurdle result on the testing surface
readhorseracing.com. Jockeys often had to moderate the pace on heavy going; we saw tactical races like the 2019 Champion Hurdle (run on soft) where several fancied horses struggled, allowing 16/1 outsider Espoir d’Allen to come through late and win easily.
By contrast, good or good-to-soft ground typically leads to the form holding up and fewer shocks. In 2022, relatively dry conditions produced quicker ground – enabling top horses to run to their best. Constitution Hill’s aforementioned track record came on such ground
cheltenhamfestival.fans, and favorites won five of seven races on Day 1 in 2022. Similarly, 2023 and 2024 began on mostly good-to-soft going, and we saw the class horses (El Fabiolo, Constitution Hill, State Man, etc.) deliver in smooth fashion
cheltenhamfestival.fans. Fast ground can, however, pose its own challenge in terms of speed duels – for example, in the 2018 Arkle (soft ground notwithstanding, two front-runners went too quick and set it up for Footpad)
readhorseracing.com, while on good ground we’ve seen strong early gallops in races like the Supreme that set up wins for horses with both speed and stamina.
Generally, soft/heavy going tends to produce more unexpected results and slower winning times, as races become tests of endurance. Big-priced winners such as Labaik (2017 Supreme) and Vintage Clouds (2021 Ultima) coincided with softer ground that blunted some favorites. In contrast, good spring ground favors the favorites and course records – the Champions like Honeysuckle and Constitution Hill could show their full brilliance on a sounder surface
cheltenhamfestival.fans. Course staff often manage the ground to be safe and just on the softer side of good for Day 1, but Mother Nature can shift that balance. Savvy observers always check the going: a late change from good-to-soft to soft can increase the chances of an upset in the handicaps, whereas drying ground might boost the prospects of well-backed speedier types.
Race Distances and How They Influence Outcomes
Day 1 of the Festival features races from the minimum 2 miles (hurdles and chases) up to extended 3¾ miles (the amateur riders’ chase). Shorter races (2–2½ miles) tend to be dominated by class and speed, often favoring the highest-rated horses. The Grade 1 two-mile events illustrate this: the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Arkle Chase frequently go to the horse with a touch of star quality (many future champions have won these). When a standout exists, they often win impressively – e.g. Altior (Supreme 2016, Arkle 2017) and Douvan (Arkle 2016) were top-class and won convincingly as favorites. In 2018’s Arkle, Footpad’s superior class told as he “went on to win as he liked by fourteen lengths” once the overly keen leaders faded
readhorseracing.com. Likewise, the Champion Hurdle (2m½f), being the premier hurdle race, is typically taken by a peak-form 7- or 8-year-old with a high cruising speed – such as Buveur D’Air defending his title in 2018 or Constitution Hill in 2023, both of whom outpaced and outclassed their rivals
cheltenhamfestival.fans. In these shorter races, tactical speed and jumping precision are crucial; a mistake at a hurdle or fence can be more costly at a fast 2-mile pace (as seen when Getabird expended too much energy and faded in the 2018 Supreme)
readhorseracing.com. Younger horses often hold their own – most Supreme winners are age 5 or 6, and Arkle winners 6 or 7, as these races showcase up-and-coming talent in its prime.
In mid-distance races (~2½ miles) like the Mares’ Hurdle (2m4f), we often see a blend of speed and stamina. High-class mares with finishing kick have thrived – Quevega (who won 6 in a row before 2015) set the template, and more recently Honeysuckle (Mares’ Hurdle 2023) and Benie des Dieux (2018) used their class to win around this distance. Occasionally, hardy stayers can outgrind the speedier types if the race turns into a slog (as Black Tears did by nabbing odds-on Concertista in 2021 after a protracted duel
cheltenhamfestival.fans). Overall, the intermediate trip tends to favor horses with a balance of stamina and tactical speed – often ages 6 to 8, as mares and geldings have matured but retain some zip.
In the long-distance races on Day 1 – notably the Ultima Handicap Chase (3m1f) and the National Hunt Chase (~3m6f for novices) – stamina and experience come to the fore. These races often reward older, battle-hardened horses and can produce less predictable outcomes. The Ultima, a grueling 3¼-mile handicap over fences, has been won by horses aged 7 to 11 in this period. For example, Un Temps Pour Tout won it twice (2016 and 2017) as a 7 and 8-year-old, carrying high weights with his class. In 2021, 11-year-old Vintage Clouds finally struck in the Ultima on his fifth Festival attempt
cheltenhamfestival.fans – a testament to how “the veteran grey” used his course experience and staying power to win. Top-weighted or favorite horses can struggle here under big burdens; it’s common to see 8–10-year-old handicap specialists at mid-range odds prevail after outstaying the field up the Cheltenham hill.
The National Hunt Chase (amateur riders), formerly over 4 miles (slightly shortened in 2020), is an extreme test. The distance, combined with amateur jockeys, often leads to drama – many horses can be running on empty in the closing stages. It’s not unusual for only a handful of the starters to finish. In 2019, “only four finished this toughest of tests” in the NH Chase, with winner Le Breuil and runner-up Discorama dragging themselves past the post in a driving finish
betting.betfair.com. Stamina is absolutely critical; winners tend to be seasoned 7 or 8-year-old novice chasers (younger horses rarely win this race). Notably, Tiger Roll won the NH Chase at age 7 in 2017 before going on to Grand National glory, showing that class can still tell even in a marathon. But often it’s about survival and jumping efficiency – e.g. Gaillard Du Mesnil (2023) and Stattler (2022) won as favorites by simply outstaying their rivals and making fewer mistakes in the late stages
In summary, shorter races on Day 1 favor the slick, high-class performers (typically younger horses peaking in form), while the longer races reward endurance, jumping prowess, and sometimes age and experience. The Festival’s opening day encapsulates this range: from the raw speed of a 2m championship hurdle to the lung-busting grind of a novice marathon chase. Successful horses are often those ideally suited to the specific distance: speedy types at two miles, versus dour stayers in the long-distance events.
Horse Age Trends and Performance
Trends in the age of Day 1 winners generally align with the race conditions and requirements. Novice races (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Arkle, and National Hunt Chase) are restricted to novice horses, so winners’ ages cluster in the young range – but even within those, patterns emerge. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is almost always won by a 5- or 6-year-old (all winners 2015–2024 fell in this range), which makes sense as most novice hurdlers peak early. For instance, Douvan (2015) and Altior (2016) were 5 turning 6, while Constitution Hill (2022) was a 5-year-old; these horses used their youthful speed to capture the Festival opener. The Arkle winners are usually slightly older novices (often age 7, occasionally 6) since they’ve spent an extra season over hurdles – Shishkin was 7 in 2021, Altior 7 in 2017, and El Fabiolo 6 in 2023. These ages reflect the typical progression: top hurdlers at 5–6, then winning the Arkle at 6–7 if they take to fences. Notably, Willie Mullins won the 2024 Arkle with Gaelic Warrior at age 6
cheltenhamfestival.fans, on the younger side, showing that exceptional talent can accelerate the timeline.
For open Grade 1 races like the Champion Hurdle, the ideal age is often around 7 or 8. This held true with Annie Power (8 in 2016), Buveur D’Air (6 in 2017, 7 in 2018), Honeysuckle (7 in 2021, 8 in 2022), and Constitution Hill (6 in 2023). A five-year-old hasn’t won the Champion Hurdle in this period, and that age is generally considered a negative in that race, as horses are still maturing (the last 5yo to win was in 2008). In contrast, by age 7 or 8 hurdlers are fully strengthened but not yet past their prime – exactly the profile of recent champions. The Mares’ Hurdle winners have varied in age: supermare Quevega was 10 by her last win, but from 2015 onwards we’ve seen mostly 7- and 8-year-old mares (e.g. Glens Melody was 7 in 2015, Apple’s Jade was a precocious 5 in 2017, Benie des Dieux 7 in 2018, Honeysuckle 8 in 2023). Mares can maintain top form later, but the addition of younger stars (like Apple’s Jade and Honeysuckle) has skewed the age a bit lower in recent renewals.
In the handicaps and longer chases, older horses have a strong record. The Ultima Handicap Chase often sees horses around 8 to 10 years old come to the fore – seasoned enough to handle a big field and a test of stamina. We saw 8-year-old winners like Beware The Bear (2019) and 10-year-old Vintage Clouds (2021)
cheltenhamfestival.fans. In fact, Vintage Clouds’ win at 11 was a rarity, underlining his Festival experience. Younger chasers (7-year-olds) can win the Ultima if they’re graded-quality horses on the rise (such as Un Temps Pour Tout at 7 in 2016), but in general a bit of age and toughness is a plus in that race. The National Hunt Chase winners are typically 7 or 8. A 6-year-old winning the NH Chase is very uncommon (they often lack the necessary physical and mental maturity for 3¾ miles). Most winners during 2015–2024 were 7 or 8, with a couple of 9-year-olds (e.g. Ravenhill was 10 in 2020, using his veteran savvy to win). It’s also worth noting that horses aged 5 or below do not run in these longer races – you tend to see those ages only in the Supreme (4-year-olds can technically run in the Supreme, but none won on Day 1 in the past decade and it’s rare to see one even attempt it).
One interesting age trend is in the juvenile races: The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (when held on Day 1 in 2021–2024) is of course restricted to 4-year-olds. These youngsters can be quite inexperienced, which contributed to chaotic results like the 80/1 Jeff Kidder shock in 2021
cheltenhamfestival.fans. It’s a race where physical progress through the spring can make a big difference. By contrast, in all-age races, 5-year-olds (the youngest allowed in most non-juvenile races) often find it tough against older horses – for example, no 5-year-old managed to win the Champion Hurdle or Ultima in this period. The Festival’s testing nature means most winners are in the midpoint of their career age-wise: old enough to be tough and seasoned, but young enough to have retained some speed. Day 1 exemplifies that balance – the average age of winners tends to be about 7 or 8, with only a few outliers on either end (very few 5-year-old winners outside novice hurdles, and only a couple of 10+ year-old winners).
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