The change of the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase to handicap conditions has opened a new layer of opportunity in a race that, for all its familiarity, now presents a distinctly different betting puzzle. The unique demands of this contest — jumping fluency, stamina reserves, and rhythm over a variety of obstacles — remain unchanged. But with weight now a factor, so too is the scope for a well-handicapped runner to turn over more established names.

On that basis, there’s no denying the strength of Stumptown’s credentials. Gavin Cromwell’s gelding arrives unbeaten in three completed cross-country assignments, including a cosy win here in December. He jumps, travels, and finishes with authority, and his form reads exceptionally well. But at current odds around 5/2, you’re being asked to back him almost as if this were a conditions race — and in a handicap where several lurk off tempting marks, that feels tight enough.

From a value perspective, LATENIGHTPASS makes significantly more appeal. At 12/1, Tom Ellis’s twelve-year-old represents an intriguing mix of proven course form, stamina strength, and handicapping scope. His third behind Stumptown in December came off a similarly testing pace, and he kept on gamely that day despite not travelling with his usual fluency. With a cleaner round, and a race likely to suit his stamina-laden style, he looks overpriced.

The pace forecast, as per Timeform, suggests an evenly run contest, which should suit those capable of travelling sweetly before delivering a challenge late. Vanillier, who routed the field at Punchestown in first-time blinkers, fits that profile well. There’s a suspicion he still sits on a generous mark based on his best Irish form, and though not entirely reliable, he appeals more than most at 8/1.

There’s a strong trends case too for Latenightpass — he ticks seven of the key profile metrics in recent cross-country handicap trends, placing him just behind Stumptown in that department. But crucially, you’re getting nearly five times the price.

Another who could outrun his odds is Mister Coffey, runner-up in both of his cross-country outings this term. He’s often found one too good, but at 17/2, he offers place potential once again. He tends to idle or flatten out in the final half-furlong, but if held onto a little longer, he could be in the mix.

Iwilldoit is the wildcard. He has none of the trend angles, and no previous cross-country experience, yet his stamina is bottomless, and this sort of test could eke out further improvement now dropped in class. He’s not a strong selection, but at 22/1, he’s worth a small saver for those who like to include a proper staying type in such contests.

Galvin, for all his back class, may find himself vulnerable under a higher weight. He lacks the same edge of progression and pace, and with no trend strength and patchy recent form, he’s not for me at the odds.