There’s something reassuringly familiar about the narrative heading into this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase – the return of a proven star, the emergence of a new force, and a field with just enough depth to tempt punters towards alternatives. But in a race often dictated by fine margins, tactical nuances, and a searing early pace, it’s worth looking beyond the headline names to assess whether the market has got it right — and whether any overlooked value still lingers.

Pace Angle: A True Test Beckons

The Timeform pace forecast points towards a strong gallop, and that seems a fair assessment given the likely forward roles of Solness and Quilixios, both of whom have front-running tendencies and little incentive to change tactics now. Add Found A Fifty, who’s no slouch early, and there’s every chance we get an honest championship test – suiting horses with efficient jumping and a turn of foot off a strong pace.

That scenario could well play into the hands of JONBON, who has settled better this term and appears tactically versatile enough to sit just off a hot early gallop before asserting with that long, low, efficient jumping rhythm that makes him such a tough horse to pressure.

Jonbon – Strongest Contender but No Giveaway

There’s little doubt that JONBON (5/6) sets a clear standard. He’s looked a more mature, professional performer this season, and his Clarence House win over Energumene, visually authoritative, was backed by the figures too – a career-best Timeform rating of 188, and a performance that placed him among the best Champion Chase winners of recent years.

Critically, he jumped smoothly, travelled powerfully, and most importantly, relaxed. That last factor might well be key at Cheltenham, a track where he has underperformed in the past. But those defeats came when racing too freely; this calmer, more measured Jonbon is a different proposition altogether.

Tactically, he has options. He’s no longer a tearaway. And with Henderson’s team stating he’s taken his races better this season, everything points to him peaking at the right time.

That said, 5/6 is probably close to his ceiling price – it’s a fair price, not a bargain. So if we’re looking for angles, it might come down to identifying viable threats or value alternatives, rather than rushing in at odds-on.

Energumene – Forgotten Force or Fading Flame?

The old warrior ENERGUMENE (15/2) returns seeking a Champion Chase hat-trick, and while some may write him off based on his defeat to Jonbon, that might be unwise. He needed the run, having been off since December, and has often sharpened significantly between first and second starts of the season.

More importantly, his record at Cheltenham is exceptional, and the strong pace scenario wouldn’t inconvenience him. He’s tactically versatile, has held his form deep into previous campaigns, and the market has slightly overreacted to one defeat. His Timeform rating of 179 still puts him comfortably in the frame, and if you’re looking for value against the favourite, he’s the obvious candidate.

He’s also a horse who tends to hit his peak in March, not January. That, coupled with his proven affinity for the track and the Mullins/Townend partnership’s strong record here, makes 15/2 look generous in a race where very few can truly match him on past achievements.

Found A Fifty – The Sleeper in the Pack?

At a bigger price, FOUND A FIFTY (12/1) is one to keep an eye on. He looked a horse going places earlier this season, with a powerful win in the Fortria Chase and an easy success at Down Royal suggesting he could take high rank in this division.

His pull-up at Leopardstown raised some alarm bells, but a nasal discharge was reported and that run may not reflect his true ability. He goes well fresh, travels strongly, and if returning to earlier form, could easily run into the frame – particularly if the front runners overdo things.

His place prospects look underestimated, and in a race with only eight runners, he offers a touch of each-way value for punters looking beyond the front two.

The Rest – Solness Form Tested, Marine Nationale Unproven

SOLNESS (9/1) has been progressive, but much of his recent success has come in weaker races, or from catching others out tactically. He’s unlikely to get the same freebie here, and while respected, it’s difficult to see him bossing this field in the same way.

As for MARINE NATIONALE (5/1), he’s undoubtedly classy, but this is only his fourth chase start, and this division rarely forgives inexperience. He could be anything, but his price is tight, especially when you factor in the level of form required to topple Jonbon or Energumene.

Conclusion & Betting Strategy

There’s little doubt that Jonbon is the most likely winner, and his form justifies favouritism. But the current price makes him a play only for those seeking a solid single, rather than an each-way edge.

For those wanting to balance risk and reward, Energumene at 15/2 makes plenty of appeal – still top class, suited by race conditions, and overlooked on one seasonal defeat. Add a small each-way nibble on Found A Fifty for those chasing a place at a price.