This year’s Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase might lack the depth of previous renewals, but it features a standout in the shape of BALLYBURN, who brings a formidable blend of class, staying potential and tactical versatility. That said, at 4/7, he’s priced as if he’s already won – and while his profile is impeccable, there’s a case to be made that the market has underestimated one rival who might have more in hand than the betting suggests.

BALLYBURN is undoubtedly a top-class prospect. His performances over hurdles last season – including victories in the Baring Bingham and Champion Novices’ Hurdle – stamped him as a future chaser to follow, and his transition to fences has been mostly seamless. He travelled powerfully when dismissing a decent field in the Scalp Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown, showing gears and stamina in equal measure. The Timeform 172p rating is hard to argue with.

But there are some nuances worth noting. His sole defeat over fences came in a tactical small-field affair at Kempton, and while he’s likely to be suited by this step up to 3m, this will be his first run over the trip – and with a steady pace forecast, he may not be fully seen to best effect if it turns into a sprint off the home turn. In short, he’s still the one to beat, but the price doesn’t reflect even small uncertainties.

The more interesting angle lies with DANCING CITY, who has shaped like a proper staying chaser from the outset. A Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree and Punchestown, he’s made a smooth switch to fences and impressed when making all in a Grade 3 at Naas, showing stamina and a straightforward racing style. With Timeform rating him 161p, and the race setup likely to suit prominent racers, he could well have the run of the race if allowed to dictate or track Ballyburn comfortably.

He’s a horse that improves for a test of stamina, and the suggestion is that his ability to travel and stay could bring him closer to Ballyburn than the market implies. At 13/2, he’s comfortably the most appealing option from a value perspective, particularly in forecast or straight win/place markets.

STELLAR STORY is another worth keeping on side in wider place calculations. The Albert Bartlett winner last season, he’s a gritty stayer who tends to find plenty off the bridle and was a touch unlucky not to beat Better Days Ahead last time out at Navan, having conceded first run and rallied gamely. His jumping can be scrappy, and he’s not the type to cruise through a race, but if the leading pair underperform or it becomes a real test late on, he could pick up the pieces.

Better Days Ahead, for his part, has done little wrong but lacks the tactical pace and visual authority of the top two. His Ten Up Chase win was workmanlike rather than impressive, and his trend profile and Timeform figure (165) suggest he’s vulnerable at this level unless others underperform.


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Summary & Suggested Approach

BALLYBURN is the most likely winner, but not at a backable price.

DANCING CITY is the value play, with a profile that’s progressing rapidly and a race shape that could see him sit ideally.

STELLAR STORY could outrun odds if it becomes a war of attrition.