This looks a well-contested Grade 3 with several upwardly mobile mares, but with a predicted very strong pace and some potential for the formbook to be overturned if we focus on race dynamics and unexposed profiles.

FAMILIAR DREAMS stands out as the most interesting horse in this field from a betting perspective at the current odds of around 10/1, a price that significantly underrates her chance based on both her form profile and the likely pace scenario.

She’s shown gradual but notable progression, especially when winning last time at Punchestown in a manner that suggested there’s more to come over this sort of trip. More importantly, she has a strong finishing profile, and this race could well be set up for horses coming from just off the pace given the depth of pace pressure forecast.

She made all last time, but her flat background, late strength in bumpers, and prior performances under restraint suggest she’s just as effective being dropped in — and that may be the angle Elliott chooses to play given the likely burn-up up front.

From a ratings perspective, she’s not far off the leading contenders, and crucially her Timeform adjusted figure puts her in the mix (147p), yet the market is still pricing her as a second-tier runner — offering a classic value angle.

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Barnahash Primrose is also worth a second look, especially if there’s late weakness in the market. She overcame significant interference last time to win impressively, and the strength of her finish at Leopardstown suggests she’ll be well suited by this race shape. The in-running data (traded high before rallying strongly late) supports that impression. She’s unexposed at this trip, and if settling early, she’s capable of running a big race.

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The favourite Mozzies Sister brings Group 1 form into this, but she’s likely to be caught up in that strong pace early, and while her raw form figures read well, there’s a chance she’s flattered by the way a couple of her races have panned out tactically. Her best efforts have come when dominating or sitting handy in steadily-run races, and this will be a different test. At around 5/2, there’s little value left.

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Sainte Tartare, from the Mullins yard, is another lightly raced improver, but it’s worth noting that her pace profile is also likely to see her involved in the thick of it early, and she may be vulnerable to one or two finishing stronger late.

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🧠 Summary (Value Angle Focus):

• FAMILIAR DREAMS (10/1) – Main Bet: Value runner, progressive profile, handles testing ground, suited by race shape, and market has underplayed her chance.
• Barnahash Primrose (6/1) – Danger: Solid closer, upgraded performance last time, market about right but could drift to become a backable price.

With the race likely to be run at a searching gallop, the value lies with strong finishers – and Familiar Dreams ticks every box for a race that could fall apart late.