Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m179y | Good to Soft | 24 Runners

Let’s be honest – this race has been a minefield in recent years. Big fields, wild pace, and a tendency for the race to fall apart late. That’s why I won’t be going near the favourite Sixandahalf, who looks flashy but is entirely unproven in this sort of melting pot. She bolted up at Fairyhouse, but what did she really beat? She’s now priced as if she’s the next Honeysuckle. I’m not buying it.

The pace forecast is extreme, and historically this race favours strong travellers held up off the speed. So I’m looking for battle-hardened types or those bred to come home strong in a scrap, not stylish types who’ve been winning small-field canters.

🔎 Main Bet – AURORA VEGA (8/1)

Forget the recency bias and noise – this mare has the best profile in the race. She’s by Walk In The Park out of Quevega, and while that gets headlines, what matters is she’s doing it the hard way – winning despite racing keenly and doing plenty wrong. She’s unbeaten when completing over hurdles, and the Solerina win at Fairyhouse was solid form. The pace scenario plays perfectly to her strengths, and she’s been trained to peak today. Townend sticks, Mullins knows exactly how to win this race, and she’s miles overpriced.

💥 Second Bet – KAROLINE BANBOU (9/1)

A bit of an unknown to the masses, but her debut was silky smooth and she’s got serious potential. By No Risk At All, she’s bred to handle a scrap, and the form of her French bumpers stacks up. She tanked through her Fairyhouse win and had loads in hand. Mullins wouldn’t risk her in a race like this unless she was flying at home.

🎯 Each-Way Big Price – VENUSIENNE (28/1)

Don’t let the drift put you off – this is one of Willie’s typical spring lurkers. Her Auteuil run was smart, and she’s another strong finisher suited by a brutal pace collapse. In a race where a lot of well-fancied horses will be floundering halfway up the hill, she could be picking them off one by one. Perfect each-way shape at big odds.