There are few races at the Festival more open to tactical chaos than the Ryanair Chase, and with a forecast strong pace, there’s every chance the market gets turned on its head in the final furlong.

The top of the market screams class, but it may not scream value – and with strong-travelling closers and tactical flexibility likely to prove crucial, this is a race crying out for a betting angle away from the obvious.

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🔍 The Favourite: Fact To File (11/8) – Classy, but is he value?

A beautifully athletic jumper with Festival credentials, FACT TO FILE has done little wrong. But for all his upside, this is his first big test against seasoned battlers at this specialist trip. He’s top-rated by Timeform (182), but will be ridden patiently, and the strong pace forecast may see him trade bigger in-play. He’s undoubtedly the most talented – but at 11/8, you’re buying hope, not value.

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🔥 Main Threat: Il Est Francais (11/4) – French fire, or false 2nd favourite?

Visually impressive and a natural jumper, IL EST FRANCAIS will take the eye. But the lack of Cheltenham experience, and potential preference for flatter tracks, is a real concern. He’s pacey and forward-going, which could put him under pressure in a race that rarely allows a breather. A top horse, but not bombproof at his price – and the trend profile (only 3 hits) is lighter than ideal.

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💥 The Value Call: Protektorat (13/2) – Bombproof, battle-hardened, overpriced

PROTEKTORAT looks criminally underrated here. He’s already a Ryanair winner, a track lover, and Timeform marks his latest Windsor demolition as 177+ rated. He’ll sit prominently – yes – but he’s not a tearaway, and there’s every chance others in this field are more likely to overdo it. Trend score is excellent (10+ hits), and with Cheltenham form and staying power in his favour, he’s a rock-solid each-way play at the price.

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💣 Big Price Lurker: Jungle Boogie (12/1) – The lurking danger

Very lightly raced, with a career profile suggesting this has been the long-term plan, JUNGLE BOOGIE is De Bromhead’s secret weapon. His form is progressive, his Ascot return was devastating, and his trend profile quietly ticks 7 key boxes. He’s tactically versatile, travels well, and could be the one picking up pieces late if the front rank collapses. Back him now before others catch on.

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🧠 Smart Stat Nuggets

• W. P. Mullins has won 5 of the last 10 Ryanairs – but not all with favourites.
• Only 2 favourites have won in the last 8 years, making 11/8 Fact To File vulnerable on history.
• Protektorat and Envoi Allen are previous winners of this race – both massively overpriced relative to past winners’ profiles.