There’s plenty of recent form to sift through in this competitive 2m4½f handicap chase, but one runner stands out both on adjusted ratings and profile suitability — and another might just be flying slightly under the market radar.

BAD produced a career-best effort over this course and distance three weeks ago, travelling smoothly and asserting readily in a race run at a fair clip. That performance earned him a substantial adjusted figure on our ratings — not only on raw ability but also when accounting for trip suitability, race tempo, and stable form. The way he cruised into contention and then stretched clear suggests he’s still some way ahead of the handicapper. Crucially, he finds himself in a similar setup again today: same course, trip and likely similar pace scenario. He rates the clear standout.

However, while BAD may rightly attract attention, there’s a strong case that BOURBALI is being underestimated by the market. His Kempton record is solid — already a dual winner here — and he wasn’t disgraced behind Bad last time out, sticking on better than most after being asked to move into contention a touch earlier than ideal. He has a significant swing at the weights now, and a smoother ride or more efficient energy use could see him get much closer. He ranks second on adjusted figures and is priced as though that last run was a ceiling, rather than a stepping stone.

With conditions again in his favour and track form proven, he’s shaping up as the value alternative — and if Bad doesn’t back up his latest effort, BOURBALI looks best placed to capitalise.

Selection: BAD 3/1
Under-the-radar threat: BOURBALI 5/1