Bluegrass Horse Feed Rated Novice Chase (2m3f140y, Good Ground, €8,700)

This six-runner novice chase may be light on numbers but poses a few puzzles for punters, not least because of a likely tactical scenario. With a very weak early pace forecast, those able to race prominently could gain a significant edge in a race where the tempo may never lift.

Clifftop comes into this as one of the more battle-hardened chasers, and although he’s not always the easiest to catch right, he boasts consistent form at this level and appeals as a strong contender if he can put a disappointing recent Flat run behind him. He’ll be suited by the return to fences and has the right profile to cope with the expected steady gallop. A clear round puts him firmly in the mix, and current odds around 4/1 offer mild value on adjusted private ratings.

The standout value, however, may lie with Listentillitellyea, who has quietly put together a solid chase record without getting his head in front. He wasn’t at his best last time, but that came in a stronger race, and his prior placed efforts read well in the context of this field. His prominent run style makes him one of the few likely to be advantaged by a tactical affair, and he looks significantly overpriced at 13/2. He’s a live contender to spring a surprise, especially in a race lacking a standout improver.

Lightkeeper heads the market for Gordon Elliott and brings some useful hurdling credentials to the table, but his chase form remains modest, and this drop in trip may not play to his strengths. He’s not ruled out, especially with the yard in form, but offers little value at 9/4, with more proven rivals in opposition.

Spirit Of Legend has ability but remains hard to trust due to repeated jumping errors, and the lack of pace could leave him vulnerable late on if he’s not fully on song. He’s difficult to rule out entirely, but equally hard to back with confidence. Brucio showed plenty over hurdles last season but was poor on her chase debut and has something to prove at this stage of her development. Digby, meanwhile, is a long-standing maiden who has been well below form in recent starts and looks one to oppose despite a surprisingly short price.

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📝 Verdict:

This could come down to tactics more than talent, and in that scenario, LISTENTILLITELLYEA makes the most appeal as a value play at current odds. He’s proven, well-suited by race conditions, and could easily outstay some better-fancied rivals if things turn tactical. Clifftop is a solid form option and deserves respect, while Lightkeeper may find the setup against him despite heading the market.

1st – LISTENTILLITELLYEA
2nd – CLIFFTOP
3rd – LIGHTKEEPER