Preview & Betting Insight

A small but intriguing novice hurdle in which Escapologist is confidently expected to bounce back to winning ways after two promising efforts at Fakenham. He boasts the most solid hurdling credentials in the field, and his style of racing and profile suggest there’s still more to come. Rated 127p by Timeform and adjusted to a top figure of 122 on private figures, he looks the one they all have to beat, and the current market price of 11/4 offers excellent value against a favourite who may be flattered by recent form.

That favourite, Jack Hyde, returns to Southwell after an easy maiden hurdle win last time out. However, while reliable, his form doesn’t have the same depth and he steps up in trip today, which is far from guaranteed to suit. Rated just 115 on adjusted private figures, he looks significantly underpriced at odds-on, and his current odds of 5/6 offer poor value relative to his true chance.

South Omo Zone adds further depth to the race. He bolted up on his hurdles debut at Wincanton before flopping on heavy ground at Exeter. A return to better ground and a more suitable test should suit this strong-travelling type, and his adjusted figure of 113 suggests he’s a legitimate danger at 15/2. If bouncing back to form, he could easily get involved at the business end.

Monaco Rules showed promise on his UK hurdling debut and could nick a place if things fall his way, but his upside appears more limited. Little Dipper and Little Big Kev have shown glimpses of ability but likely need weaker contests, while Tommy Tucker is outclassed.

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Verdict:

Escapologist is rated a strong bet at current odds and looks the most progressive horse in the field. South Omo Zone rates a solid each-way alternative at a generous price and could be the one to give the selection most to think about. Jack Hyde, despite heading the market, looks opposable at odds-on based on adjusted performance figures and is best watched at the prices.