Race Preview (Stats Focus)

This is a low-grade National Hunt Flat race with just 7 runners, offering limited each-way value, and looks a race where stats and profiles can strongly guide expectations.

The standout on the numbers is CALVINO, trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Harry Cobden — a powerhouse pairing with elite strike rates across multiple categories:

Trainer Distance SR: 23%, Class: 25%, RT: 22%

Jockey TD: 36%, DC: 30%, RT: 25%

Top breeding profile (by Walk In The Park out of a Dom Alco mare) – a potent combination for bumpers and staying trips.


Calvino scores consistently well across track, race type, class, and distance suitability, and his connections are rarely off the mark in these types of events. Statistically, he is the clear top contender, and the market (7/2) still offers a touch of value against a tissue closer to 9/4.

The main danger is THREE PIKES, trained by Tom George and ridden by Mr J Hogan. George has excellent recent form (33% 7-day SR) and is notably strong in bumpers. The pedigree (Jack Hobbs x High Chaparral) brings staying power and scope, and Hogan has a 40% strike rate at the track. Three Pikes lacks experience but has a stat-rich profile and represents the most likely threat to the favourite.


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Summary

Top Contender: Calvino – strong on all key stats, trainer/jockey combo in red-hot form, excellent bumper breeding.

Main Danger: Three Pikes – progressive type from a bumper-savvy yard with strong pedigree and solid statistical angles.