Musselburgh 16:25 – Value Play in a Wide-Open Series Final

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This looks a typically competitive renewal of the Brindisi Breeze Series Final, and while the market has latched onto a few of the more obvious contenders, there may still be some value lurking beneath the surface.

FORGED WELL makes significant appeal at the prices. He was shaping encouragingly when falling three out in a stronger race at Wetherby last time, having previously run a series of solid races in steadily deeper company. His Kelso win earlier in the season, followed by a narrow second to a progressive rival, marked him out as one with untapped staying potential, and he looked well suited by a thorough stamina test.

The Wetherby fall arguably masks the progress he’s been making, and this return to a slightly less exacting circuit could play to his strengths, particularly with an even pace forecast. His trainer has handled similar types well in these staying handicap spheres, and with the trip and ground in his favour, he’s a fair bit shorter in my tissue than his current odds suggest.

TOP MAN TOM also looks slightly underestimated. He carries a big weight, but he’s a dual course winner who typically races prominently and has a likeable, straightforward way of going. His latest run came in a deeper race where he was left a bit isolated late on, and this return to a more evenly-run race could see him bounce back.

There are also reasons to think the market might be a touch too cool on HOSTILE HOTELIER, who chased home a subsequent winner here before scoring easily in a small field next time. That form has some substance, and with stamina assured, he’s another who shouldn’t be underestimated if allowed to travel into the race smoothly off a reasonable gallop.

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