From a stats-based perspective, this small-field bumper provides a useful case study in trainer trends, breeding influences, and jockey performance metrics — all of which point to two key horses.

Strongest Contender: Centurions Sister

Trainer Nicky Richards has an excellent long-term record in National Hunt Flat races, especially with mares, and boasts 18%+ strike rates across 90-day, Track, and Class categories.

Breeding is a major plus — sired by Getaway (noted NHF influence), and crucially out of Aint Misbehavin, a dam who ranks highly across distance, going, class and race type stats.

L3/L5/L10 form figures indicate consistency, and while not flashy, the overall profile is rock-solid.

At around 5/2, she represents good statistical value versus the favourite.


Main Danger: Chanonry Point

Lucinda Russell’s bumper runners are always to be respected, and she has strong Trainer/Track and Race Type strike rates (TD 22%, RT 20%).

Affinisea is a solid sire for stamina-bred bumpers, and the dam line includes Oscar, a notable influence in staying mares.

Ticks nearly every box on stats, but perhaps a touch overbet at 13/8, especially given the lack of standout L3/L5 figures compared to Centurions Sister.


Verdict:

On stats, Centurions Sister shades favouritism based on a deeper breeding profile and stronger trainer-based metrics, while Chanonry Point is the obvious danger but may be short enough in the market.