Speed Figure Analysis & Contender Spotlight

This evening’s 6f Class 5 handicap at Newcastle presents an intriguing puzzle from a speed figure perspective. With a mix of exposed handicappers and a few with patchy profiles, it’s the kind of contest where digging beneath the surface ratings can uncover value.

Top Speed Performers

Leading the speed rankings is Match Play (Rating: 70.95), whose peak figure of 82.24 is the best in the field. Though his recent form line reads unevenly, he’s posted consistently strong efforts on the clock when conditions suit. His average at the trip (62.03) is solid, but more importantly, his maximum trip rating of 78.49 shows he can match the pace profile required here. If returning to peak form, he’s a serious player at a generous price.

Run This Way (Rating: 70.00) is a surprising speed figure standout given her market odds. She holds the second-best max rating (87.95) and is one of only a few with a strong track figure average (62.05). While recent figures have dipped, her historical ratings over similar conditions suggest she’s capable of bouncing back. A fast-run race could play to her strengths, and she’s being overlooked.

Lord Abama (Rating: 69.77) is the most consistent overall, with a tight range of solid figures and a very dependable average across all conditions (65.44). His trip and track averages are among the best in the field, and he lacks the big peak of others but rarely runs a bad one. He looks the safest contender from a speed consistency standpoint.

Form Trends & Suitability

Mighty Power is interesting: his average ratings aren’t standout, but he’s posted back-to-back solid figures and is trending upwards. His max at track (76.91) is decent, suggesting some hidden potential.

Court Drive has one exceptional run (78.09) inflating his figures, but that appears an outlier – he’s generally operating below 65 and may be flattered.

Mayo County, despite being favourite, has underwhelming speed credentials. His recent figures are inconsistent and his trip average (51.47) is among the weakest in the field. He looks significantly overbet.

Rebeccas Girl has the best individual recent run (71.46) but lacks broader consistency. If she reproduces that, she’s competitive, but the overall profile is patchy.


Shortlist – Top 3 Speed Contenders

1. Match Play – Best peak rating, strong trip figures, generous odds.


2. Run This Way – Huge max figure potential, under the radar, ideal if pace collapses.


3. Lord Abama – Reliable, consistent, trip/track suitability ideal.



Honourable mention: Mighty Power – upward form trend, fair max figure at track.